Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 25212. (Read 26608460 times)
October 06, 2014, 05:01:06 PM
October 06, 2014, 04:58:58 PM
http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/
Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.
"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."
The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.
Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.
"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."
The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.
a guy who has been around this long, with that many Bitcoin knows better than to put up for sale his whole 30,000 thousand coins in one order. I don't care how lucky he is or inexperienced.
"Decided 300$ was their breaking point"
Yeah right. As if people usually wait until rock bottom price to divest of an asset they have lost confidence in.
October 06, 2014, 04:57:42 PM
The big volume is the most bullish and more optimistic news that could be out there
October 06, 2014, 04:56:26 PM
This what a trader had to say the other day in another subforum of a forum dedicated to BTC
Thought I'd share w/ yall
Quote
Yes, I have had some negative things to say about the implementation of the technology. To be fair, I've always held that the technology is revolutionary. I'm just afraid that the implementation hasn't been as solid as the underlying tech. There are some core issues with using the technology the way it has been used. I won't go into a lot of details to answer your question at this point, but I think it is fair to say that the technology is here to stay, just maybe not in the current mode. It's a good foundation to build off of and I am sure as time goes on and the large capital investors learn more about how the tech is being used and can be used, will see innovations that will add much more value and the exchanges will stabilize around that more realistic valuation.
As far my target area, I tried to go back and extend my stable growth line for the long term. I am still focused on the pivot at $250, as I believe many people are. If you go back and look at the largest weekly volume candles in the bitstamp chart on trading view you will note a couple of things.
1.) Shortly after my 'octave' analysis that we are talking about, the market signaled that the pivot was actually at $320. This was the week of 11/4 settlement price. The week ended the same day after my analysis. It is important to note that this week was the largest volume positive movement in the history of this trade.
2.) That week began at 207 reached as high as 364 and finally settled at 320. On the daily view for the same week, there is a high volume touch point to the down side on 11/10, the day of my analysis which I believe coincided with new about senate hearings coupled with the fall out from silk road bust. THat touch point was 264, which at the time showed strong support for the peak of the april 2013 exuberance.
3.) The idea of the octave was to eventually challenge and retest the pivot point in this range. A healthy strong volume bounce of that retest would indicate that the steady growth trend would reach up to a new level or octave of pricing with the new trend line RANGE setting up the low end of the range at the TOP of the high end of the old range.
So what has actually played out is that the retest never happened. What we are seeing today is not a retest of top end of the old growth trend. Instead it is a return to the old lower octave growth trend.
This is actually really extremely positive news for the long term growth prospects of the technology in so far as fair market valuations and in terms of technical analysis. So in fact, with todays retest of that pivot point which by now has extended the old stead growth channel, what we are seeing (finally) is some pricing stability.
No, this is not the beginning of the end. But it is the end of the beginning, if that makes sense. We are seeing some soberness return to this trade and to this tech. This is a positive sign for long term investors and for actual users of this technology. Not just in terms of technicals, but also, it is fundamentally important for this technology to be made widely available to the average consumer. Even tho I think we all have different perspectives of what the value of "bitcoin" might be, and we even have different ways of understanding what a "bitcoin" might actually be, the average not technical person will see "cheap" bitcoins as an opportunity to explore and adopt the technology. This is a good thing!
So that being said, I think finally we'll start to move out of the speculative phase of the introduction of an invention and revolution in communications technology. I think we'll be moving back into a more realistic approach of figuring out what the technology can actually do and maybe start seeing investors and early adopters focus more on software and less on the exchange charts.
I suspect that the market will over correct even tho many will be licking their chops to scoop up at whatever the low actually ends up being. No one wants to get burned again, but looking at my long terms growth trend, the bottom end of that trend is right around the 260 level and the range would be up into the 320 area as of today. That's on the weekly analysis.
I'd be looking for an over correct to somewhere around the 120-150 range because I expect the old 250 pivot to be broken still based on volume support at that level and then one final capitulation to drive prices down to the last stable trend range post april 2013 highs.
Today, this would be support on the weekly chart secondary indicators. This down move has been gathering momentum for months now. The weekly is just now starting to move into oversold range after nearly 20 months of bouncing in and out of overbought. I believe we'll spend a week or two of weekly oversold enough to bring the MONTHLY chart on trading view secondary RSI indicator down to touch the oversold level. That projects prices out to 120-150 on a LONG over due technical correction.
That being said, I started small buys last week as we punched down into the upper octave growth lows of 320 where intermediate support was at. I've also scooped up some of the pivot prices just now as we begin challenging the growth octave pivots. I'll be adding my position all the way down to my target over correct range of 120-150.
The trend reversal won't happen quickly, so there won't be a "catch a falling knife moment". I believe this will be a protracted correction and very frustrating for people who have been long during this entire corrective phase.
However, there will be plenty of opportunity for bulls to retrench because eventually, there won't be enough floor space to short. We'll get back to a day trader market real soon here, but the whipsaw action won't be as severe as we saw with the last 2 bubble phases.
I suppose the big question is, where is the top to this thing? Will there be another bubble up phase? I think the sky is definitely the limit assuming innovation keeps pace with valuations. That hasn't been the case because I do believe the market got WAY ahead of itself with a BETA test technology. So no, there won't be another bubble up phase like the last 2 we saw. Those I believe are aberrations in an otherwise healthy market with solid "product". That being said, I don't think there is anything stopping the trade from moving into a more profitable growth trend ( a steeper up slope) than what the technical analysis has presented to this point.
So there ya have it.
We've already hit my initial target and I've covered my shorts and started slowly adding to my holdings. I'll back up the truck on the over correct sub 200, and then use my new long position to start day trade again.
It's been a long time coming, but I've yet to actually lose money trading and at this point I've nearly quadrupled my fiat losses from the theft of my original trades.
As far my target area, I tried to go back and extend my stable growth line for the long term. I am still focused on the pivot at $250, as I believe many people are. If you go back and look at the largest weekly volume candles in the bitstamp chart on trading view you will note a couple of things.
1.) Shortly after my 'octave' analysis that we are talking about, the market signaled that the pivot was actually at $320. This was the week of 11/4 settlement price. The week ended the same day after my analysis. It is important to note that this week was the largest volume positive movement in the history of this trade.
2.) That week began at 207 reached as high as 364 and finally settled at 320. On the daily view for the same week, there is a high volume touch point to the down side on 11/10, the day of my analysis which I believe coincided with new about senate hearings coupled with the fall out from silk road bust. THat touch point was 264, which at the time showed strong support for the peak of the april 2013 exuberance.
3.) The idea of the octave was to eventually challenge and retest the pivot point in this range. A healthy strong volume bounce of that retest would indicate that the steady growth trend would reach up to a new level or octave of pricing with the new trend line RANGE setting up the low end of the range at the TOP of the high end of the old range.
So what has actually played out is that the retest never happened. What we are seeing today is not a retest of top end of the old growth trend. Instead it is a return to the old lower octave growth trend.
This is actually really extremely positive news for the long term growth prospects of the technology in so far as fair market valuations and in terms of technical analysis. So in fact, with todays retest of that pivot point which by now has extended the old stead growth channel, what we are seeing (finally) is some pricing stability.
No, this is not the beginning of the end. But it is the end of the beginning, if that makes sense. We are seeing some soberness return to this trade and to this tech. This is a positive sign for long term investors and for actual users of this technology. Not just in terms of technicals, but also, it is fundamentally important for this technology to be made widely available to the average consumer. Even tho I think we all have different perspectives of what the value of "bitcoin" might be, and we even have different ways of understanding what a "bitcoin" might actually be, the average not technical person will see "cheap" bitcoins as an opportunity to explore and adopt the technology. This is a good thing!
So that being said, I think finally we'll start to move out of the speculative phase of the introduction of an invention and revolution in communications technology. I think we'll be moving back into a more realistic approach of figuring out what the technology can actually do and maybe start seeing investors and early adopters focus more on software and less on the exchange charts.
I suspect that the market will over correct even tho many will be licking their chops to scoop up at whatever the low actually ends up being. No one wants to get burned again, but looking at my long terms growth trend, the bottom end of that trend is right around the 260 level and the range would be up into the 320 area as of today. That's on the weekly analysis.
I'd be looking for an over correct to somewhere around the 120-150 range because I expect the old 250 pivot to be broken still based on volume support at that level and then one final capitulation to drive prices down to the last stable trend range post april 2013 highs.
Today, this would be support on the weekly chart secondary indicators. This down move has been gathering momentum for months now. The weekly is just now starting to move into oversold range after nearly 20 months of bouncing in and out of overbought. I believe we'll spend a week or two of weekly oversold enough to bring the MONTHLY chart on trading view secondary RSI indicator down to touch the oversold level. That projects prices out to 120-150 on a LONG over due technical correction.
That being said, I started small buys last week as we punched down into the upper octave growth lows of 320 where intermediate support was at. I've also scooped up some of the pivot prices just now as we begin challenging the growth octave pivots. I'll be adding my position all the way down to my target over correct range of 120-150.
The trend reversal won't happen quickly, so there won't be a "catch a falling knife moment". I believe this will be a protracted correction and very frustrating for people who have been long during this entire corrective phase.
However, there will be plenty of opportunity for bulls to retrench because eventually, there won't be enough floor space to short. We'll get back to a day trader market real soon here, but the whipsaw action won't be as severe as we saw with the last 2 bubble phases.
I suppose the big question is, where is the top to this thing? Will there be another bubble up phase? I think the sky is definitely the limit assuming innovation keeps pace with valuations. That hasn't been the case because I do believe the market got WAY ahead of itself with a BETA test technology. So no, there won't be another bubble up phase like the last 2 we saw. Those I believe are aberrations in an otherwise healthy market with solid "product". That being said, I don't think there is anything stopping the trade from moving into a more profitable growth trend ( a steeper up slope) than what the technical analysis has presented to this point.
So there ya have it.
We've already hit my initial target and I've covered my shorts and started slowly adding to my holdings. I'll back up the truck on the over correct sub 200, and then use my new long position to start day trade again.
It's been a long time coming, but I've yet to actually lose money trading and at this point I've nearly quadrupled my fiat losses from the theft of my original trades.
Thought I'd share w/ yall
October 06, 2014, 04:53:47 PM
By now I think its safe to say the crash is over temporarily. Lets see if it goes up above 400.
Recovery is being slow and so looks more positive than a sudden jump and crash back.
Recovery is being slow and so looks more positive than a sudden jump and crash back.
October 06, 2014, 04:47:14 PM
To those who are still short and currently talking their book:
Look at yesterday's daily candle, then compare it to every other daily candle during the past year that resembles it. That is all.
Look at yesterday's daily candle, then compare it to every other daily candle during the past year that resembles it. That is all.
Selling bitcoin short with any kind of leverage is an excellent way to be parted from your capital very quickly. I sense there are a lot of newbie traders hoping to cash in on the wild bitcoin swings. Most adventurous types try their hand with leverage and learn (myself included!) eventually the hard way.
Who knows what the price will do in the next few weeks. But i know after a prolonged bear market, with sentiment at rock bottom, many previous failed dead cat bounces, a high volume reversal and enough demand to buy 30,000 coins in 24 hours suggests this market is not going to crash and burn to zero like the trolling accounts exocytosis et al would have you believe. Shorting right now is definitely on the wrong side of the risk:reward spectrum.
Nothing has changed with this particular dead cat bounce. This was to be expected.
My prediction: We might go all the way to 370-380 before a sharp drop to sub 250.
October 06, 2014, 04:45:23 PM
http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/
Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.
"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."
The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.
Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.
"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. They’re not experienced with handling this amount of money because they’ve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They don’t have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way that’s guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? They’ll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
That’s what I’d do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."
The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.
October 06, 2014, 04:39:04 PM
looks like they found the body....
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2014/10/06/bear-cub-found-dead-in-central-park/
poor bear
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2014/10/06/bear-cub-found-dead-in-central-park/
poor bear
There are always casualties during a trend change!
October 06, 2014, 04:38:34 PM
Anybody know where to buy that shirt? I need that shirt so bad.
he really has zero introspective abilities doesn't he...
he doesn't realise that no matter how passionate he is and how strong he feels about certain issues and ideas, legitimacy is important if you want to make impact and to have people listen to you. If you are going to purposely disregard the fact that people have programmed opinions and prejudices and not give a shit about how you come across because of that, you're just an idiot and you're shooting yourself in the foot and fucking with your big principles for the sake of very minor principles.... and everyone you work alongside and speak on behalf of.
as I type this he hasn't stopped... sounds like a high dude at a squat party
Watched until 17 min and he seemed level headed . Perhaps reference the time he becomes unruly for others
That guy is manic.
Diagnosed by Doctor Lyth
October 06, 2014, 04:38:01 PM
looks like they found the body....
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2014/10/06/bear-cub-found-dead-in-central-park/
poor bear
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2014/10/06/bear-cub-found-dead-in-central-park/
poor bear
October 06, 2014, 04:37:35 PM
I hope this upward movement stays. Probably we will get a small but significant sell-off before the moonphase ... ow well I'm in no hurry 
October 06, 2014, 04:37:01 PM
To those who are still short and currently talking their book:
Look at yesterday's daily candle, then compare it to every other daily candle during the past year that resembles it. That is all.
Look at yesterday's daily candle, then compare it to every other daily candle during the past year that resembles it. That is all.
Selling bitcoin short with any kind of leverage is an excellent way to be parted from your capital very quickly. I sense there are a lot of newbie traders hoping to cash in on the wild bitcoin swings. Most adventurous types try their hand with leverage and learn (myself included!) eventually the hard way.
Who knows what the price will do in the next few weeks. But i know after a prolonged bear market, with sentiment at rock bottom, many previous failed dead cat bounces, a high volume reversal and enough demand to buy 30,000 coins in 24 hours suggests this market is not going to crash and burn to zero like the trolling accounts exocytosis et al would have you believe. Shorting right now is definitely on the wrong side of the risk:reward spectrum.
October 06, 2014, 04:35:26 PM
Whew... wow man, look at all that rising volume! All that buying, wow. People are just killing themselves to get at these cheap coins.
Actually... yes. Highest daily volume since more than half a year. Higher than the April "bottom" even.
Here's stamp, as an example:
Same on finex and okcoin. Huobi saw slightly higher in April.
This forum is no place for facts or backing up rational thoughts with data! FUD only please....
October 06, 2014, 04:34:23 PM
Whew... wow man, look at all that rising volume! All that buying, wow. People are just killing themselves to get at these cheap coins.
Actually... yes. Highest daily volume since more than half a year. Higher than the April "bottom" even.
Here's stamp, as an example:
https://i.imgur.com/Ae4nZHz.png
Same on finex and okcoin. Huobi saw slightly higher in April.
October 06, 2014, 04:27:37 PM
I'm optimistic bitcoin will be 10 usd for 1 btc, really I am looking forward to the moment when the beautiful memories of the past (the old love blossomed back) ... how happy to be true collector bit coin
BTC love it ...
YES>>>>> SOME day in the future..... Probably after we are all dead.
October 06, 2014, 04:26:38 PM
This "The Bear WHale is dead" meme is unsettling. This could easily be an epic bull-trap.
'The bear whale is rich and enjoying life' would is more accurate
October 06, 2014, 04:25:10 PM
Buy buy buy bitches!
Only noobs haven´t bought in @~300 already.
I hope there are a lot of them left
You mean the likely 200K+ bitcoiners that bought sometime this year and sold at a loss? Yeah, I'm sure that their just DYING to buy back into the market.
And all of their friends & family they told about their wonderful bitcoin experience this year too.
someone actually did this?
YEAH!!!!!! Fictional people.
October 06, 2014, 04:24:46 PM
Attenzione: Pump incoming!
Because of Overstock's guy?
What, no? What did he say, is he wiring 50 Mio. to Stamp+BTC-E? I think price will go up because people are going to buy like mad. I can smell the bullishness in the orderbook, trades, charts.
Everybody is waiting to buy back. A mix of traders being p*ssed off and kind of bullish at the same time + the hope that maybe China will continue to (almost) ignore Stamp and do their own thing. That is my analysis anyway
October 06, 2014, 04:21:01 PM
This "The Bear WHale is dead" meme is unsettling. This could easily be an epic bull-trap.
October 06, 2014, 04:19:56 PM
Why Klee is such an angry twat:
I started buying @390
5 @390
5 @380
5 @370
OOPS! BAHAHHAHA.
FYI I got ALL IN on the way down @353$
I am buying 5btc for every 10$ drop, lets see if I get broke!
How much have you bought in the past 2 days? 5 @390
5 @380
5 @370
OOPS! BAHAHHAHA.
It is REALLY funny to make fun of someone... but NOT to provide your own specific and personal BTC investment details... and actually Klee seems to have had a pretty decent investment strategy - except maybe needing to keep some additional fiat available for BTC price spikes below $353, which NOW we know can happen b/c it did happen....
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