Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26038. (Read 26609912 times)

Someone please create an @errrrrrratic account that keeps posting predictions that the price may go up or down or neither at any moment now.

I personally have a lot more trouble with the mid term calls than with the short term predictions. Identifying a likely developing trend, and selling or buying into it seems relatively easy for me. But the question how to take your profits, in USD or BTC, *that's* the tricky bit, imo. Park them in BTC, and you'll see your profits melt away. Park them in USD, and one swing you missed later, and you only buy 2/3 of your original coins back.

It's decided, we will stay at this price from now on, it's the new equilibrium, there's no way up nor down, we may jiggle a few %, but nothing more.

It's not a prediction, it's a mental attitude. All my high risks investments are totally worthless.

Until I come to the point where I start recalculating the value, most times...

...to make it worthless for another round.

I believe that I am in a pretty decent mental state these days, and surely different personalities are going to deal with trading and investment differently.   And, to the extent that you are referring to or lumping together a "to the moon crowd," I believe that there is quite a bit of variance within this supposed group. 

In my case, I have been quite studious of BTC since about November 2013, and during this period, I have learned quite a bit about BTC and about various crypto currencies and about investment concepts.  Whether I have been using my time effectively may be another story..... but anyhow, it has been interesting for me from my own perspective.


This comment makes little to NO sense b/c at the moment my BTC investment portfolio seems to possess a considerable amount of liquidity, and I remain of the belief that I could cash it out on fairly short notice, if I wanted to, and to walk away, if I wanted to.  BTC has a long way to go down before it even approaches zero.  Even though there are a multiple number of circumstances that could cause BTC prices to go to zero in a quick manner, the likelihood of those zero events occurring in the near future seem fairly remote. 

In other words, in my calculations, the value of the probability of upside potential greatly outweigh the probability of downside potential, and that is why I am continuing to invest into BTC on an ongoing basis.

Each of us will come to varying calculations regarding probability of upside versus probability of downside and some of us will be more correct than others and some of us will be more incorrect than others.. So we each reach our own individual calculations.. Additionally, some people are going to have more difficult times than others deciding what to do and making their own calculations that suit their own situations.

Anyhow, your last sentence seems to be referring to absolutes and blacks and whites and seem to be referring to a prediction of a future that has NOT yet occurred and your description of such future seems a little crazy from my perspective at the moment.

Successful short term traders are rare. Not because it were extremely sophisticated, but it is an enormous psychic strain. You have to be born for this work.

I can trade with small amounts in short term, but to start trading just with a medium amount and I feel that I will die very young.

I estimate 95% would not be able to trade short term without becoming a mind wrack over time.

I know that there are people who can. If you are one of these, I congratulate.

Looks pretty close to my list of buy prices!  I can't remember the date and I'm too lazy to look it up, but probably 5-6 weeks ago when we exchanged messages, I had a cost average of $476 (or at least that was my last calculated average, but I knew my real average was a bit higher because I had made purchases since my last calculation.) I have raised that average since then, but again, I've been buying various increments since my last calculation, so I can only guess I'm somewhere between $510 and $520.  

I've also accumulated a bit more than I had originally planned to accumulate by now, but I'm thrilled to have more.  Absolutely nothing has changed in my mind about bitcoin.  I know I'm not good at finding intermediate tops, selling into them, and buying back lower.  So this just means I have more BTC that I will not lose by outsmarting myself in trades.

Surely it is comfortable to be in the black or at least feel comfortable about those kinds of matters, and sometimes having some balance in your portfolio can cause your own extra comfort b/c your distribution allocation is working well for you.  Well, anyway thanks for the extra explanation b/c that does shed some additional light upon the extra level of silver that you seem to be recognizing in the crypto cloud... 

You could, you know, try selling some when it looks like price is about to take a dive. That tends to give plenty of powder to buy.

...

I know, I know, not an option. "Hodl for life" and so on

+1....

I wished I had enough cash to hit the button six times in a day... It can be pretty fun to buy so many times... like shopping... .. that is, if you like shopping.     I tend to buy a few times in a day, at most.. but sometimes I do get carried away with quantity in each of those purchase sessions.

So you're not greedy, whining because the price doesn't move up and make you money?

Now they will try to take the price down. And then they will try to take the price down. Preferably till Bitcoin has become completely worthless and then they will move to the next thing they can destroy out of greed.

Can I ask you something? I am and have been for quite some time, actually been dying to know where you come from ? where are you based and if you do not mind me asking what is your heritage? because I have been trying to figure it, and get an image of you in my mind , and I just cannot figure it...  for example... I am born and raised in the UK , but my parents are Irish and Spanish and I am over somewhere around 40. I am now based in various places UK being one of them.

Tell me to mind my own business of course.. but I am just CURIOUS.

I agree with you, counter link..... the most likely motives are either being paid by some entity or that you have a personal self interest that the price comes down further so you can buy in or maybe lastly that you have shorted in some kind of way that allows you to profit from the price going down, rather than going up.

People like Jorge are just NOT very convincing with their claims of benevolence and attempting to help the masses of ignorance.  In order to have his level of enthusiasm and stick-with-it-ness, he has gotta either be paid or some other way personally benefiting... For example, with Jorge, it could be possible that he has channeled his effort into some kinds of academic projects in which he can publish and/or show that he is contributing in a meaningful academic ways from all the masturbating over BTC that he seems to be doing. 

By the way, Jorge, I do NOT make my comments concerning you in any kind of vindictive way towards you, even though sometimes I have gotten frustrated with some of your contributions b/c sometimes I have perceived your "contributions" as being disingenuous and purposefully misleading.

This is one of the main reasons to prepare yourself (mentally) for strong bearish moves from the beginning of your investment and one reason (there are more) why I would never form part of the "to the moon" crowd.

Depreciate it! Bitcoin has just gone to 0,00$! You have lost all your money! There's nothing you can do more ;-)

In the last month, I bought various increments of BTC at the following prices


602.06
602.46
588.06
582.03
578.06
584.66
579.75
573.47
558.02
516.79
498.15
465.04
507.18
492.03
493.10
479.41

So this is an ongoing basis for me to be accumulating BTC, and certainly, we can begin to feel a little frustrated when we wished that we would have waited on certain large scale purchases in order to better bring down our average price per BTC and also to have accumulated more BTC with the same amount of fiat.

I understand that in the long run, it may NOT matter too much whether we have accumulated 80 BTC, 100 BTC or 120 BTC or whether our average buy in price was $350 or $700 b/c we can ONLY do our best under the circumstances and NOT kick ourselves too much overhind sight thinking b/c we really cannot predict with any real great degree of certainly what some of these large BTC price manipulators are going to do.

Sometimes I have my own cash problems, and I am NOT sure this month how much cash flow I should dedicate towards BTC, though I do have some (powder as you like to call it) on reserve.  Also, I have a couple of decent back up plans (that I am NOT going to publicly disclose) that give me additional piece of mind concerning the long term stability of my various investment activities and strategies related to BTC.

no problemo amigo...

and yes the Bitcoin world rocks...

Explanation

I should add, JJG, that I'm probably feeling bold because, while I have spent some time underwater in the last month, as of yesterday, I was in the black on all BTC-denominated investments I've made.  This was, in part, due to a rapid rise over the last week in XMR.  I'm close enough to break-even that I was back underwater this morning when BTC was around 480 and XMR was around .0044.  But with some buys I made this morning in both BTC and XMR, I'm pretty sure I'm back in the black.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, I've accumulated assets today.  It's a damn fine day.

cosign

There is NO WAY bitcoin is actually WORTH less than it was in March.  Too much new adoption, too many developments.  So if you think it was worth $500 in March or you bought in the $600's in April, you absolutely HAVE to understand that there is divergence between price and value over the last month.

Everything I watch still tells me BTC should have a value around $2400-$3000 by 2019 or 2020.  (NOT price, but VALUE...I'd suspect price will overshoot on the high side of that number, probably more than once.)

I just don't care what the price is today...unless I think it is so inexpensive I can't afford NOT to buy.  And that is currently what I think.  I've hit the button at least 6 times today.