Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26232. (Read 26713087 times)
August 20, 2014, 07:59:32 PM
August 20, 2014, 07:57:04 PM
Anybody got any coal to fuel this choo choo?
August 20, 2014, 07:56:35 PM
I am relatively bullish on Bitcoin mid-term. I believe we will be above 530 a week from now. 700 or more is a possibility by December 31, barring any huge Black Swan events.
I suspect we might enter 2015 somewhat on the plus side of $600.
$800 or more can be reached by the end of 2015.
But a lot of unforeseen events might drive price lower.
I suspect we might enter 2015 somewhat on the plus side of $600.
$800 or more can be reached by the end of 2015.
But a lot of unforeseen events might drive price lower.
August 20, 2014, 07:55:46 PM
most shorts are older that today no?
most of the squeezie ( unless they get scared and one by one cut losses now ) will happen above 600.
doesn't feel like an easy price target... but no one saw that alpaca coming either.
You mean this one?
but in retrospect, if i was gana do a move like that i'd wait for poeple to be crying in pain for days, too.
also i'm thinking this could a herd of alpacas... as always, bears are doomed.
August 20, 2014, 07:52:33 PM
Normally in the bullish side, but unless we wild and anarchycally destroy 530, it smells like a bulltrap
i feel it too!
i also have an equally loud voice inside me telling me to resist trader logic for next 48 hours.
hence my confusion
August 20, 2014, 07:52:09 PM
most shorts are older that today no?
most of the squeezie ( unless they get scared and one by one cut losses now ) will happen above 600.
doesn't feel like an easy price target... but no one saw that alpaca coming either.
You mean this one?
August 20, 2014, 07:45:42 PM
In other words, this is NOT a set percentage, but instead based on how much leverage you used....? The lower the leverage ratio, the longer it will be allowed to run before being forced to close; however, if an trader uses a high leverage ratio, then it will be forced to close much sooner (b/c the collateral gets eaten up more quickly)?
When the collateral value drop lower than the borrowed asset value, plus 15%.
The thing is complicated from the fact that one can use bitcoin as collateral, so that as the price change the collateral value change too.
Let's do math
John goes short at 450$. His collateral is 450$ (let's assume, to simplify). He short 3 BTC (1350$).
The price goes to 575$. Now to close his position he need to buy 3 BTC (1725$). John's position is in red of 375$.
When his P/L reach -382.5$, poor John will be margin-called. That will happen, in this case, at price 577.5$.
most shorts are older that today no?
most of the squeezie ( unless they get scared and one by one cut losses now ) will happen above 600.
doesn't feel like an easy price target... but no one saw that alpaca coming either.
August 20, 2014, 07:40:27 PM
Normally in the bullish side, but unless we wild and anarchycally destroy 530, it smells like a bulltrap
August 20, 2014, 07:34:40 PM
In other words, this is NOT a set percentage, but instead based on how much leverage you used....? The lower the leverage ratio, the longer it will be allowed to run before being forced to close; however, if an trader uses a high leverage ratio, then it will be forced to close much sooner (b/c the collateral gets eaten up more quickly)?
When the collateral value drop lower than the borrowed asset value, plus 15%.
The thing is complicated from the fact that one can use bitcoin as collateral, so that as the price change the collateral value change too.
Let's do math
John goes short at 450$. His collateral is 450$ (let's assume, to simplify). He short 3 BTC (1350$).
The price goes to 575$. Now to close his position he need to buy 3 BTC (1725$). John's position is in red of 375$.
When his P/L reach -382.5$, poor John will be margin-called. That will happen, in this case, at price 577.5$.
August 20, 2014, 07:30:50 PM
August 20, 2014, 07:30:06 PM
If the $14 million of margin longs that disappeared from bfx were to panic buy at market right now, price would reach $1800. So that's our very high ceiling without any new fiat on the exchanges.
August 20, 2014, 07:18:10 PM
lets see a nice short liquidation cascade!
Can anyone make an educated guess at what point the shorts could get liquidated?
I'd think it would be alot higher than this, but I have no idea how to properly calculate
And anyone with the brain of a cockroach would close before a margin call is triggered. A margin call means your collateral is gone.
The shorts are waiting for a correction down to minimize losses. Another 10-20 dollars and they might give up.
In other words, this is NOT a set percentage, but instead based on how much leverage you used....? The lower the leverage ratio, the longer it will be allowed to run before being forced to close; however, if an trader uses a high leverage ratio, then it will be forced to close much sooner (b/c the collateral gets eaten up more quickly)?
August 20, 2014, 07:16:09 PM
lets see a nice short liquidation cascade!
Can anyone make an educated guess at what point the shorts could get liquidated?
I'd think it would be alot higher than this, but I have no idea how to properly calculate
educated guess = 640+
I am just guessing too; however, that sounds like too much... it is like 133% of $480
price is set to roughly double once its found it footing, just like from 350 to 680.
this market is insane, because if we are right, if the transformation of money from physical representation of information to pure information holds true, and happens her e now
well fuck man we are rich beyond belief if only we can HODL true to our beliefs !
August 20, 2014, 07:12:53 PM
lets see a nice short liquidation cascade!
Can anyone make an educated guess at what point the shorts could get liquidated?
I'd think it would be alot higher than this, but I have no idea how to properly calculate
educated guess = 640+
I am just guessing too; however, that sounds like too much... it is like 133% of $480
August 20, 2014, 07:09:04 PM
lets see a nice short liquidation cascade!
Can anyone make an educated guess at what point the shorts could get liquidated?
I'd think it would be alot higher than this, but I have no idea how to properly calculate
But what is a reasonable ballpark figure? Something like 15% which would be a trigger at about $550 for a Short that was entered into at $480? Something like that?
August 20, 2014, 07:05:39 PM
this has got to be where pigs get slaughtered, but the longs are down, the bids are strong, my long term view hasn't changed since forever! epicly confused!!!!
Buy all you can, hodl, sleep
August 20, 2014, 06:59:52 PM
this has got to be where pigs get slaughtered, but the longs are down, the bids are strong, my long term view hasn't changed since forever! epicly confused!!!!
August 20, 2014, 06:59:33 PM
August 20, 2014, 06:59:11 PM
Upwards back to 550 soon. 550 is the 150 of 2014. Bounce around there for the next couple of months before launch.
Let's just launch.
I'll take that too
August 20, 2014, 06:55:50 PM
Upwards back to 550 soon. 550 is the 150 of 2014. Bounce around there for the next couple of months before launch.
Let's just launch.
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