Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26303. (Read 26713156 times)

Hello there 300's! It's been 4 months since the last time I saw you  

I was a respected member of this forum in the past, but was banned by your moderators out of fear that my observations would cause a panic. Thus, I was forced to open this new account in order to spread the word of bitcoin's upcoming demise. Cut your loose while you still can!

Just posted the following on reddit in response to "wtf is causing price to fall?", thought I'd share it here, too:

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Market dynamics:

Negative feedback

Usually there is a dampening effect prevalent in the market

• when price rises, demand decreases and supply increases
• when price falls, demand increases and supply decreases

It's pretty easy to see: at lower prices there's more people willing to buy, at higher prices there's more people willing to sell.

This has dampening effect on price movement: each time the price wants to take a hike in any direction, it's slowed down by this.

This is called **negative feedback**, because a result of the process influences the process itself in such a way that **it reduces changes**.

However in some situations like now there are stronger effects that resemble **positive feedback**. With positive feedback, the results of the process influence the process itself in such a way that the **magnitude of the change increases**.

I can think of a couple of things that might currently be in effect and have a positive feedback on falling price:

• Miners: miners are forced to sell part of the mined coins to cover fiat expenses. A falling price causes them to increase the percentage of coins they have to sell => positive feedback
• Margin calls, forced liquidation:  falling price can trigger leveraged longs on exchange to be automatically liquidated, which results in more selling => positive feedback
• Market participant psychology: falling price causes frustration, anger, and fear in at least some market participants, which in turn causes them to sell => positive feedback.

So: the system is out of balance.

Fortunately, all of the above positive feedback effects are dependant on some resource that is reduced and ultimately depleted in the process:

• miners: they cannot sell more than 100%
• liquidations: there's only so many longs
• psychology: the panic-sellers have only a limited amount of coins

So don't worry: the imbalance to the downside is only temporary ;-)

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not sure how naive or accurate, but these are my thoughts on the reasons of the price fall.

Yes! We're all complete different persons! I can guarantee!

 

Brilliant

No, that's not what I...I mean...uh...Adam...that's not what we're doing at all!

Pretty sure this entire thread is just Adam talking to himself with alt accounts. Even I'm not sure I'm real.

Fairly sure you are a) not an outsider, and b) probably operate more than one similar account on btc. Who are you really?

i'm gana do it, i'm gana send some fiat in case we gets that low, anyway i have tons of shopping to do.

You can trust me because I bring forth an outsider's view of bitcoin. For the past year, people here have been brainwashed by the echo chamber, they have no ability to think rationally anymore!

Nobody knows. Plenty of stories flying around. Regardless of the causes, we are flirting with key technical resistance points. If we break $440, then things could get interesting... imo of course.

Double bottoms are often deceptive

Explanation

We have been on this price level from roughly March 31 until May 19 this year, so what's the deal

We didn't need such a phase last time around, because there were still few who believed that it was going to happen again. In 2014, everyone and their mom was anticipating another bubble, and even got their aunts, uncles, grandparents to invest for the same purposes. Once everyone expects it, it won't happen and they need to be flushed out of the system, sadly.

Is it possible to arbitrage between bitstamp and btc-e nowdays? What is the fastest money transfer?

PS: offtopic: Is there a reason why ltc gets slaughtered the last weeks? It lost 2/3 against BTC.

If these sales prices don't encourage bulls, and those sitting on the fence.. then time will will

You registered here two days ago. Forgive me if i take every word you write with a pinch of salt. If it isn't going to rise again, why do you want to buy in lower?

The whole 'blood in the street' being necessary is what is going to bite the bears in the butt when the time comes. I don't remember much blood last year before the autumn rise.