Seems I was not clear.
Sure there has always been volatility, and large drops before, but until two months ago it was "expected volatility" that fitted the grand model: namely, average 1000% growth every year, through a series of bubbles more or less regularly spaced in time. The drop after the November peak was eevn seen as a good thing because it was seen as a repeat of the drop after the April 2013 peak, and thus confirmed that pattern. And the rise from May/20 to Jun/10 and the following plateau recalled what happened from July through the end of September last year.
But this drop does not fit that pattern any more. It is not the panic drop from ~125$ to ~85 on Oct/02, that was quicly reversed. Analists were expecting the next bubble a month ago, but instead got a week of almost steady drop that brought the price down to the same level as the bottom of the "2014 Silk-Road-Like Dip". So, what is the grand model now?
Sure there has always been volatility, and large drops before, but until two months ago it was "expected volatility" that fitted the grand model: namely, average 1000% growth every year, through a series of bubbles more or less regularly spaced in time. The drop after the November peak was eevn seen as a good thing because it was seen as a repeat of the drop after the April 2013 peak, and thus confirmed that pattern. And the rise from May/20 to Jun/10 and the following plateau recalled what happened from July through the end of September last year.
But this drop does not fit that pattern any more. It is not the panic drop from ~125$ to ~85 on Oct/02, that was quicly reversed. Analists were expecting the next bubble a month ago, but instead got a week of almost steady drop that brought the price down to the same level as the bottom of the "2014 Silk-Road-Like Dip". So, what is the grand model now?
The bubble failing to materialize reminds me of the scene in Back to the Future III which answers your question well I think:
Quote
Jennifer Parker: Dr. Brown, I brought this note back from the future and now it's erased.
Doc: Of course it's erased.
Jennifer Parker: But what does that mean?
Doc: It means your future hasn't been written yet. No one's has. Your future is whatever you make it. So make it a good one, both of you.
Marty McFly: [Marty wraps his arm around Jennifer] We will, Doc.
Doc: Of course it's erased.
Jennifer Parker: But what does that mean?
Doc: It means your future hasn't been written yet. No one's has. Your future is whatever you make it. So make it a good one, both of you.
Marty McFly: [Marty wraps his arm around Jennifer] We will, Doc.
