Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26479. (Read 26608860 times)
August 07, 2014, 06:50:05 AM
August 07, 2014, 06:28:02 AM
Bulls still have plenty of money. They are sitting on the sidelines waiting for either: a) the bottom of this slide, or b) significant upward momentum. It feels pointless to buy now because there is a 90% chance we will slide another $15 and there is zero chance the price will hit even $600 soon. Everyone is discouraged.
If you you say the chance is zero it will be easy to organize a bet between us. How about my 0.01BTC versus your 10 BTC that the price will be above $600 within 2 weeks?
August 07, 2014, 06:03:57 AM
time to drop your unrealistic hope
August 07, 2014, 05:59:49 AM
August 07, 2014, 05:38:41 AM
The wall is falling.
lol, where you are watching, where is wall falling, I am not seeing any movement on Bitstamp.
There is nothing happening on market, it's just stuck.
August 07, 2014, 05:08:51 AM
Bulls still have plenty of money. They are sitting on the sidelines waiting for either: a) the bottom of this slide, or b) significant upward momentum. It feels pointless to buy now because there is a 90% chance we will slide another $15 and there is zero chance the price will hit even $600 soon. Everyone is discouraged.
well maybe this is obvious..but imho it is all the large mining farms that are cashing out bitcoin each day to usd (less likely to hold bitcoin)
thus a slow leak/drain to the bitcoin price boat so to speak..small miners also have to pay expenses so maybe that too usually also in usd
the other part is low volume...adoption has kinda lagged (if you go by news media the attention has lagged anyway)
so you get a position of good news keeps the price we have very minor bad news dumps it at least $20 and the drain of selling btc to usd each day from large ph farms
cashing out from btc to usd continues....ie not enough volume for whatever reason...and the slow drain to usd from large miner farms imho is the so called 'leak' of sorts
(and just the continued selling and making of more miners) it all adds to imho to this slow drip...down in price....and thus further reduces newbie interest etc
I mean myself and I assume others are holding but I'm not buying anymore...full/fat and happy at the current time..so new folks/investements are need to jump start this again
imho..just not enough of it from what I can tell at this time
beat me up I likely don't know what I'm talking about...
as we sit here in limbo...neutral in good news/bad news..price stagnation
then of course really bad news tanks the price really good news (like dell taking bitcoin) keeps the price treading water....sigh
brighter folks then me on here but that is how I see it....hopefully the ETF by the facebook twins and a nice announcement of Ebay/Paypal taking
bitcoin (please in star trek talk: "make it so")....this may just go on for more then a few months with slippage each month..the
"bitcoin price doldrums"
my 2c worth
Searing
August 07, 2014, 05:00:17 AM
Bulls still have plenty of money. They are sitting on the sidelines waiting for either: a) the bottom of this slide, or b) significant upward momentum. It feels pointless to buy now because there is a 90% chance we will slide another $15 and there is zero chance the price will hit even $600 soon. Everyone is discouraged.
I'm sorry to be nit picky, but I agree with your first statement. However, your second statement in bold seems a bit much... By your statement you seem discouraged, but that feeling of discouragement should NOT be extrapolated to everyone.
There is a decent chance of a $15 drop, but 90% --- my gosh !!!.. maybe 50%, NOT 90%...
and
zero% chance of $600, soon? I'll take your "soon" to refer to within the next few days. Please note, we've received a lot of good news this week with the potential UK endorsement and Global payments, which could cause buying from any entity or person causing upward momentum in the price.. greater than 0% chance of rise to $600 within the coming days... but I may agree with you that it is more likely to see $565 than to see $600 in the coming days... NONETHELESS $600+ is likely in our "soon" future... maybe next week? I'm NOT discouraged, and I will likely buy a few more at $565, if we get there.
August 07, 2014, 04:59:49 AM
August 07, 2014, 04:56:23 AM
The wall is falling.
I can't seem to find any wall right now or over the last hours. It's simply nothing going on right now. Volume is more or less back on boring levels and that's about it I guess.
August 07, 2014, 04:32:09 AM
Bulls still have plenty of money. They are sitting on the sidelines waiting for either: a) the bottom of this slide, or b) significant upward momentum. It feels pointless to buy now because there is a 90% chance we will slide another $15 and there is zero chance the price will hit even $600 soon. Everyone is discouraged.
August 07, 2014, 04:22:15 AM
The wall is falling.
August 07, 2014, 04:05:34 AM
So someone wants to accumulate some thousands of bitcoins and is doing so on huobi; He could do so for much less but I would agree that this is a very effective way to do so since he is almost 100% of the buying pressure at present. This accumulation is having so much affect on the market that huobi has been $5-10 higher than the other exchanges for almost 2 days now. There need not be any wacky theories of this guy is manipulating people into buying from his asks or some other ridiculous stuff; its pretty obvious what is going on and its simple. However, the price is stagnating, longs must continue to pay interest and bulls have no money left to buy now, so it is almost certain we will be heading down once this guy is done accumulating.
Yea way too reasonable. By the way, I wasn't saying that he was having people buy from his asks... actually, he is doing the opposite. I was saying if I was a whale, I would have played it that way (and that would make me a bastard, but I'd be doing everything possible to keep my entry price as low as possible).
I guess the other thing is that I assume whales possess not only a high IQ, but are also devious -- I mean, how else did they get all of that money. But, maybe that is the false assumption. Maybe he just wants to buy a s--- ton of coins and that's that.
August 07, 2014, 04:01:41 AM
So someone wants to accumulate some thousands of bitcoins and is doing so on huobi; He could do so for much less but I would agree that this is a very effective way to do so since he is almost 100% of the buying pressure at present. This accumulation is having so much affect on the market that huobi has been $5-10 higher than the other exchanges for almost 2 days now. There need not be any wacky theories of this guy is manipulating people into buying from his asks or some other ridiculous stuff; its pretty obvious what is going on and its simple. However, the price is stagnating, longs must continue to pay interest and bulls have no money left to buy now, so it is almost certain we will be heading down once this guy is done accumulating.
August 07, 2014, 03:59:50 AM
August 07, 2014, 03:53:43 AM
Another data point:
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
What doesn't make sense is that if this "whale" theory is correct, there is almost zero other buying going and AND there is a ton of selling going on, as 4k bitcoins have been sold into this area.
Its as if the market, on whole, really wants to go down. Right now, there is selling action and almost no buying action outside of this wall.
That was my initial thought, too. I also haven't the slightest clue why there is no buying action when you have a constantly reinforcing price floor, too, and a price that is much cheaper than we had a couple weeks ago. Ok, back to bizarro-land.
August 07, 2014, 03:51:17 AM
Another data point:
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
What doesn't make sense is that if this "whale" theory is correct, there is almost zero other buying going and AND there is a ton of selling going on, as 4k bitcoins have been sold into this area.
Its as if the market, on whole, really wants to go down. Right now, there is selling action and almost no buying action outside of this wall.
August 07, 2014, 03:50:13 AM
Another data point:
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
I think whatever is going on that it is the same cat. I just don't see how he is managing to get these, frankly, magnificently low prices. I'd think you'd use a giant and insurmountable ask wall to drum down price expectations, buy in front of that, and then add those that you just bought to a secondary wall at an even lower price until you walked the market down. He seems to be doing the opposite if you are right and is still getting super sweet prices. It makes no sense why BTCs are this cheap right now.
August 07, 2014, 03:44:57 AM
Another data point:
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
Watching bids, either there are 2 whales buying or he has his wall plus more smaller bids at slightly higher prices. I keep seeing identical mid-sized bids near market price. Right now, there are 4 bids of 16.051 showing. Last night, there were a series of identical 20.xxx bids.
August 07, 2014, 03:37:56 AM
there's so much manipulation in this market. i gotta stop letting the whales get in my head. i mean -- is this guy accumulating on huobi? or is trying to get us to think he's accumulating?
This I don't understand. So, a guy sets a floor which causes the price to be higher than it would otherwise be to buy into... moreover, the multitude of volume is sells/asks not bids/buys in front of that wall... and yet people keep saying this guy is accumulating. This just makes no sense to me whatsoever. First, why would he make his price of entry higher. Second, how is he accumulating if most of the volume is asks in front of that wall (I guess every deal has two sides, but it looks like somebody is dumping in front of an artificial wall until, every now and then, somebody sacks up and calls bull----).
So, pardon me for using logic, but what the hell is everybody else seeing that I'm not. Is somebody tracking which wallet the coins are all going to or something that lets them know somebody is accumulating. Because, frankly, I don't see accumulating (or much interest in buying at this price notwithstanding there being an artificial floor to boost prices). Did I somehow land in bizarro-land. I am almost starting to question my sanity because what I am seeing is so literally the opposite of what poster after poster is writing.
He has already added more coins to the wall at least TWICE after it was eaten down to a few hundred coins. He is definitely buying. I guessed yesterday that he has already bought at least 4k btc without a price increase. It is probably higher. He is getting a great price, has no slippage, and isn't chasing the market. I say well done.
It is sad to watch small owners selling their coins cheap to a fiat whale, but that is their decision.
Well, that explanation makes sense. I just assumed he had a ton of coins (that he could sell in front of the wall) AND a ton of money that he could put up to set the wall. But, what you are saying makes sense since he has been adding more and more to the wall. Thanks for the response.
August 07, 2014, 03:33:59 AM
boo slippage
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