The July 24th date is 234 days after the previous bubble, which was 234 days after the previous bubble, etc. There is a guy on Reddit who spent months telling everyone we were going to the moon on exactly that date, not one day earlier, not one day later.
When he started getting laughed at, he made his own subreddit, and moved there. The last that I read, he turned from superbull to superbear because his prediction was wrong which he thinks proves that the bitcoin bubble trend is dead.
I am expecting the price to jump a few percent on the 23rd or early 24th because he publicized it so much, for so long.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26763. (Read 26610965 times)
July 15, 2014, 03:06:04 AM
July 15, 2014, 03:00:37 AM
July 15, 2014, 02:53:00 AM
some poeple are so dependent on the matrix, they cannot be reasoned with.
Indeed. It is useless to point out that all those things that can be "bought with bitcoin" are actually bought with dollars that come from the sale of bitcoins to BitPay/Coinbase/etc... 
Zzzzzzz zzzzzz zzzzzz zzzzzzz
July 15, 2014, 02:37:59 AM
I could see another leg down, but I'm seeing a lot of bullish divergences across all exchanges. And 4hr indicators are getting pretty low. Not a good time to be selling, IMO.
July 15, 2014, 02:30:43 AM
Better wait for the 583 dip, was confirmed multiple times last couple of days.
It usually doesn't go that deep when people except it to. I want to be on the safe side of the dip.
July 15, 2014, 02:27:41 AM
and it is also rare that you have a heads up on a potential black swan event (which is still probably at less than a 1 percent chance)... I'm just playing the hand that I see in the most reasonable way. I'll be buying back shortly and you guys can smack me around when the price is $700 at that time. =D
That's actually quite a level headed gamble. It would have worked in your favour a couple of times now (... and one day it won't of course, and then you lose big, but you knew that).
Myself, I'll go all in again the second it touches under $600.
Volume is actually much better now than before the previous big dumps. Not great, but not abysmal either.
Better wait for the 583 dip, was confirmed multiple times last couple of days.
Confirmed
July 15, 2014, 02:26:07 AM
and it is also rare that you have a heads up on a potential black swan event (which is still probably at less than a 1 percent chance)... I'm just playing the hand that I see in the most reasonable way. I'll be buying back shortly and you guys can smack me around when the price is $700 at that time. =D
That's actually quite a level headed gamble. It would have worked in your favour a couple of times now (... and one day it won't of course, and then you lose big, but you knew that).
Myself, I'll go all in again the second it touches under $600.
Volume is actually much better now than before the previous big dumps. Not great, but not abysmal either.
Better wait for the 583 dip, was confirmed multiple times last couple of days.
July 15, 2014, 02:02:43 AM
and it is also rare that you have a heads up on a potential black swan event (which is still probably at less than a 1 percent chance)... I'm just playing the hand that I see in the most reasonable way. I'll be buying back shortly and you guys can smack me around when the price is $700 at that time. =D
That's actually quite a level headed gamble. It would have worked in your favour a couple of times now (... and one day it won't of course, and then you lose big, but you knew that).
Myself, I'll go all in again the second it touches under $600.
Volume is actually much better now than before the previous big dumps. Not great, but not abysmal either.
July 15, 2014, 02:01:14 AM
all those things that can be "bought with bitcoin" are actually bought with dollars that come from the sale of bitcoins to BitPay/Coinbase/etc...
Does it not work both ways? Most of my bitcoins were purchased with dollars, received in exchange for my labor. A more appropriate saying would be, "all those things can purchased with labor or traded for other things using a medium of exchange of dollars or bitcoin".Therefore, those businesses are likely to increase supply in the market (by moving coins out of hoards to the market), rather than demand. Basically, they induce holders to sell, and make it convenient to do so. Are they also inducing non-bitcoiners to buy bitcoin? It is not obvious: if you had dollars and no bitcoins, why would you choose to pay with bitcoin?
I did not expect the "using bitcoin kills bitcoin" argument from you, I thought you were a little better than that.
July 15, 2014, 02:00:19 AM
July 15, 2014, 01:25:29 AM
Quote from: JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg7851524#msg7851524 date=1405405043
if you had dollars and no bitcoins, why would you choose to pay with bitcoin?
Rents and seignorage
July 15, 2014, 01:17:23 AM
all those things that can be "bought with bitcoin" are actually bought with dollars that come from the sale of bitcoins to BitPay/Coinbase/etc...
Does it not work both ways? Most of my bitcoins were purchased with dollars, received in exchange for my labor. A more appropriate saying would be, "all those things can purchased with labor or traded for other things using a medium of exchange of dollars or bitcoin".Therefore, those businesses are likely to increase supply in the market (by moving coins out of hoards to the market), rather than demand. Basically, they induce holders to sell, and make it convenient to do so. Are they also inducing non-bitcoiners to buy bitcoin? It is not obvious: if you had dollars and no bitcoins, why would you choose to pay with bitcoin?
July 15, 2014, 01:00:36 AM
July 15, 2014, 12:33:55 AM
It is summer, people do vacation a lot, maybe less fiat that they can spend on btc, while they can spend that dirty fiat on drinks at the pool bar. Before we know it will be fall, and who knows what territory we'll be in.
July 15, 2014, 12:21:47 AM
Does anyone know how to calculate the price we would have be at to close the 1W MACD in red?
It would need to close the week under the 30 week moving average, which looks like about 611 right now.
First, macd uses ema's not ma's. Typically macd uses the 9, 12, 26 ema's. BTW you can chose what ema's you use in bitcoinwisdom.
Now if you have any highschool algebra and remember what a log is, you can calculate what the weekly closing price needs to be to cross. If you want a rough estimate its around 550.
I stand corrected.. Thanks for the lesson!
July 15, 2014, 12:13:06 AM
Does anyone know how to calculate the price we would have be at to close the 1W MACD in red?
It would need to close the week under the 30 week moving average, which looks like about 611 right now.
First, macd uses ema's not ma's. Typically macd uses the 12, 26 ema's and the 9 day ema of the macd. BTW you can chose what ema's you use in bitcoinwisdom.
When the short ema - the long ema = 9 day ema of the macd you will have a cross over.
Now if you have any highschool algebra and remember what a log is, you can calculate what the weekly closing price needs to be to cross. If you want a rough estimate its around 550.
Edit: correction
July 15, 2014, 12:04:23 AM
I think you're taking a pretty substantial risk by choosing to be in fiat here. The sale of the Silk Road coins projected around 575-600 per coin.. That is the most your going to get from downside here. The market could easily move up 70-150 in a day.
We have two differing opinions, and that's what makes a market
Please post when you buy back in.
We have two differing opinions, and that's what makes a market
Please post when you buy back in.Hey bro. I will definitely post when I buy back in. Yea, the money I am playing with is not really play money so I am a bit more risk averse, playing a hunch that we'll get a dip b/c: (1) volume is abysmal; (2) good news seems to have no effect (and a lot of it is already priced in); (3) bad news still does have an effect (European Central Bank did nothing and yet we still dropped 30 or 40 points) -- the Lawsky should be a similar event where absolutely nothing happens and we still get a dip due to harsh words about terrorism, fraud, yaddie yaddie yadda bs; and (4) the Bitfinex thing actually spooks me although, more than likely, it will be a non-event (but I think we'd at least get a mini dip out of concern and/or some jack--- trying to actually precipitate a flash crash). Ergo, I definitely think within a couple weeks we'll be at the same point or higher, but I'd be surprised if there weren't some bargains to be had... and it is also rare that you have a heads up on a potential black swan event (which is still probably at less than a 1 percent chance)... I'm just playing the hand that I see in the most reasonable way.
I'll be buying back shortly and you guys can smack me around when the price is $700 at that time. =D
July 15, 2014, 12:00:18 AM
July 14, 2014, 11:56:08 PM
Is it me or is selling all your coins at the moment to hopefully buy back in cheaper next week highly risky?
I have less than 12 coins and at this current moment I wouldn't dare to sell even 1.
At this current moment the upward potential by far outweighs the chance of buying in a tiny bit cheaper along with the chance of missing out and/or having to panic buy back in at a higher price.
Also you don't lose money unless you sell at a loss, by holding in a small temporary downwards movement you don't lose anything.
I have less than 12 coins and at this current moment I wouldn't dare to sell even 1.
At this current moment the upward potential by far outweighs the chance of buying in a tiny bit cheaper along with the chance of missing out and/or having to panic buy back in at a higher price.
Also you don't lose money unless you sell at a loss, by holding in a small temporary downwards movement you don't lose anything.
first, selling all your coins is not recommended... you gotta have that long term hodl even if it is just 1 BTC and you trade a alot... Always be HODLING!
second, totally depends on your entry point risk tolerance and stuff.
once you got all that sorted out.
feel free too go gamble your bitcoin net worth at bitstamps!
Ah, yes, you are in almost the same exact situation I am in (sorry for the communication gap, but I was pumping iron only to realize that I am old and out of shape). Anyhow, I did, today, just sell all 12 of mine. My rationale was just that my perception was that the downside in the immediate term is more likely and more pronounced than the upside. Downside, I figure, could droop to about 560 (and I worry about a slightly larger event with Bitfinex running into a big weekend), whereas the upside is about 660 if I am wrong (and if it is more than that, I feel like I could buy into the run up at least around that range). The other thing is that the lack of responsiveness to good news means that there'd probably be a pretty good hint -- world shaking news -- to tip me off to a run up whereas a downside event would be just continued low volume mini-correction and/or flash crash. So, for the very, very, very short-term I felt it was wisest for me to take a quick breather. Maybe I lose out on possible gains, but I am still pretty risk averse.
As for normal conditions, do what everybody else says and hodl. Also, if you are in a good place with your finances and have at least some play money... hodl forever and just don't worry about it. Those be my thoughts, but do take note that they are specific to my situation (which I didn't delve into too much... I am more risk averse by necessity than a lot of my fellow bitcoiners).
July 14, 2014, 11:35:39 PM
Does anyone know how to calculate the price we would have be at to close the 1W MACD in red?
It would need to close the week under the 30 week moving average, which looks like about 611 right now.
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