Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26990.

elebit

sr. member

Activity: 441

Merit: 250

Quote from: TERA on June 27, 2014, 01:10:35 PM

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

Those things takes time. It has taken five years for Bitcoin to be where it is now.

Even if something so insanely smart so it is to Bitcoin what Bitcoin was to whatever was before it (e-Gold?), you probably have five years of trading between Bitcoin and the new hotness before it could possibly be "dead" in any way.

And some people are going to be early adopters, trade in their Bitcoins the first few years (and any new cryptocurrency WILL be denominated in Bitcoin the first few years, that is completely and utterly irreversible) and make a fortune. And there will be discussions again how be new currency favors early adopters and is unfair. History will repeat itself in every way.

But before that there's going to be thousands upon thousands of scamcoins which do not improve state of the art in any way and will ultimately be worthless. If you do not realise the new hotness before anyone else and move with the average pack, you will still be able to trade your Bitcoins pretty much 1:1. Roughly.

This is the one future prediction I can and will make of which I believe to be absolutely certain.

MadGhost

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

★777Coin.com★ Fun BTC Casino!

Quote from: N12 on June 27, 2014, 01:06:13 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 27, 2014, 01:02:11 PM

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

quite detailed study , it will take me some time to understand it .Thanks for the link.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: N12 on June 27, 2014, 01:06:13 PM

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

Thanks, very relevant. It includes a lot I intentionally do not, and suggests some I didn't think of. I'm focused on a peculiar sort of risk, the risk of a "bitcoin is dead" consensus. After feedback I will try to collate and update the table.

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: N12 on June 27, 2014, 01:06:13 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 27, 2014, 01:02:11 PM

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

Excellent find. This is very comprehensive. Great job Blitz.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: TERA on June 27, 2014, 01:10:35 PM

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

Not over one year though.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: aminorex on June 27, 2014, 01:02:11 PM

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Quote from: aminorex on June 27, 2014, 01:02:11 PM

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

abercrombie

legendary

Activity: 1159

Merit: 1001

Alex Water is supposed to bid "live on air" at 3pm on Bloomberg... 2:20

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/u-s-to-auction-17-4m-cache-of-bitcoins-KXmFXKwlTrmpruPRBIPf5w.html

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

Raystonn

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 12:47:57 PM

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

Won't happen. Seized foreign currencies are immediately turned to USD on an approved exchange and sent to the Treasury. By the time this court case is over there will be an approved Bitcoin exchange, and more than enough liquidity to absorb the coins.

keithers

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1001

This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

Quote from: empowering on June 27, 2014, 12:22:37 PM

Quote from: Parazyd on June 27, 2014, 12:16:36 PM

Wait a second. Has Wall Street already started trading BTC? This trend throughout the past month is so lipsum.

"Oh my god! It even has a watermark"

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 12:47:57 PM

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

Or, the non-event this week may have immunized the market, inured it against such concerns.

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: trepper on June 27, 2014, 12:38:37 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 12:26:09 PM

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

Yes, but...
As usual the only thing that is rising the price up is the panic buyers rising the price because they are sure the price will go to da moon. Every single time.

Rational discounting leads to a valuation scenario which renders anything but buying at the maximum holding level questionable at best. For that reason, the emotional explanation of the bull case seems irrelevant.

I know I should expect FUD factors at random intervals, since that is history, but it is very hard to see how btc has not overcome all of the major threats at this point, save one or two in reserve. (Fungibility being one that seems inevitable to me, but not yet. It should show signs in the media before it becomes a price issue.) Those items aside, that leaves only the adoption rate in question.

trepper

member

Activity: 89

Merit: 12

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 12:26:09 PM

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

Yes, but...
As usual the only thing that is rising the price up is the panic buyers rising the price because they are sure the price will go to da moon. Every single time.

empowering

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1441

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 12:24:10 PM

Quote from: empowering on June 27, 2014, 12:12:02 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 12:05:15 PM

Huh?? I don't think you understand what i'm saying haha. Nevermind.

Oh ok then ... I was very simply saying ... "this auction the biggest thing in BTC? - naaaaah"

If there was some sort of special secret meaning , that I have missed in your last few messages- then yeah I do not understand you.

Ok, what i'm saying is you need to update your sarcasm detector.

Sarcasm?

fair play.

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 27, 2014, 12:15:36 PM

This whole silly auction thing reminds me of last summer when the sale of Satoshi Dice led to a good chunk of coins (126k?) being paid out to shareholders.

Some fools thought they would all hit the exchanges and sink the price, leading to an immediate flash crash from $98 down to $86. Even though there was no appreciable impact of the payout the next day (prices actually rose), it took over a week to recover.

It seems the kind of people who held shares in SD were also the kind of people to hold their bitcoins, actual Bitcoin people and not just traders. Surprise, surprise.

When the list of bidders in the auction was leaked it should have been fairly obvious that they probably weren't going to immediately sell them, let alone at exchanges.

The whole thing was a non-issue.

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: empowering on June 27, 2014, 12:12:02 PM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 27, 2014, 12:05:15 PM

Huh?? I don't think you understand what i'm saying haha. Nevermind.

Oh ok then ... I was very simply saying ... "this auction the biggest thing in BTC? - naaaaah"

If there was some sort of special secret meaning , that I have missed in your last few messages- then yeah I do not understand you.

Ok, what i'm saying is you need to update your sarcasm detector.

empowering

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1441

Quote from: Parazyd on June 27, 2014, 12:16:36 PM

Wait a second. Has Wall Street already started trading BTC? This trend throughout the past month is so lipsum.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26990. (Read 26630523 times)