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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27033. (Read 26706934 times)

legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
If someone would want to discredit BTC, then all he has to do, is to point out this thread.
The new elite!  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Hopefully this is the double bottom everyone has been waiting for then...to the moon!
legendary
Activity: 4242
Merit: 5039
You're never too old to think young.
How about you, Fonzie?  What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets?  What kinds of percentages do you have?  How do you consider your  BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?

Fonzie's assets?

Let me guess... 1 slingshot, 3 Pokemon cards, 1 yoyo, 2 GI Joe dolls, a Betsy Wetsy action figure and an iPhone.

Maybe his mommy also bought him a Schwinn.

 Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 605
Merit: 500
member
Activity: 92
Merit: 10
That's quite commendable of you JayJuanGee to actually try and have a conversation with Trollzie, instead of just telling him to fuck off.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time.  I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.

How much longer until you´re 100% invested in Bitcoin? Which is the destiny of every delusional bulltard...  Cheesy

I am kind of flattered that a seemingly troll-tard, like you Fonzie, seems to be interested in my investment particulars.

I believe that it depends upon how a person such as me estimates my investments.  I do monitor my investments, but my means for assessing my particulars evolves... and my level of disclosure evolves.   

I have quite a variety of investments, and some of my investments are more liquid than others and some of my fiat comes available and is ready to be invested into something.. which in recent months, newly available investment fiat has mostly been going into BTC.

Probably only between about 5-10% of my current mostly liquid investments are in bitcoin.  A large majority of my newly investment available fiat is going into BTC (attempting to acquire BTC somewhat strategically on the dips).  If BTC appreciates in value faster than my other assets, then it will take on a larger percentage of my total liquid portfolio.  I may diversify out of BTC on some sudden spurts upward (if such were to occur in the next 6 to 36 months) in order to increase my overall BTC holdings, but I expect that if BTC values appreciate faster than my other quasi-liquid holdings, I will allow BTC to occupy a larger percentage of all my quasi-liquid investments. 

I am somewhat doubtful that the proportion of my total liquid holdings would get above 70% in BTC, but never say never.  We have to see how BTC prices play out in the upcoming years, and if there were sudden appreciations in BTC, then likely I would allow it to occupy a greater portion of my liquid assets.

On the other hand, if BTC prices remain flat or decrease in value in comparison with my other quasi-liquid investments, I may reconsider the percentage of new fiat that I am putting into BTC. 

Nonetheless, in the near term, I am planning to continue to invest into BTC, and even without considerable appreciation in BTC prices, I expect that BTC may come to clearly occupy 10% or even more of my total liquid investment holdings.  I am continuing to assess and consider my strategy(ies) in this regard.


How about you, Fonzie?  What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets?  What kinds of percentages do you have?  How do you consider your  BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?




legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005


can someone explain me what the swaps are and why they are significant?
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010

I'd guess most bitfinex money comes in via BTC.  So borrow the USD but don't buy coin.  Puts temporary downward pressure on the price as people sell BTC to loan USD to you.   Its AS IF a manipulator sold coin but only costs 1-2% of the value of the coin, and you don't have to go short when you are bullish on bitcoin and about to bit on a block of 3000.  I'm not saying that somebody has been doing this for a month+... more likely just in the last week or two.  They are eating up all the leverage that gets unwound plus a little more.

I would not be surprised if this leverage unwinds a bit after the auction.  Although if I'm right, releasing the USD back to the owners might encourage them to buy a bit (if only to get out of BFX or b/c the price is low), sparking a rally that would encourage actual leverage.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time.  I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.

How much longer until you´re 100% invested in Bitcoin? Which is the destiny of every delusional bulltard...  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time.  I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.
How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.
I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

I don't like the idea of thinking of it as "fake" volume, but I do believe it needs to be heavily "discounted" for purposes of volume analysis.

Based on some (admittedly rather crude, please don't ask) method I employ, today's calculation for example would look as follows:

4400 (stamp) + 3000 (btce) + 5400 (finex) = ~13k "Western USD volume"

43000/10 (ok) + 29000/5 (huo) + 3000 (btcchn) = ~13k "Chinese volume"

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high. On the other hand, it doesn't include EUR (and other currencies) volume yet.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

How did you arrive at those percentages that 90% of OKcoin's volume should be discounted and 80% of Huobi's? Seems kinda arbitrary to me. Why not 50% or 30%?
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
hero member
Activity: 841
Merit: 1000
Bulls and bears at this moment
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Available Now!
Bear troll and bull troll trolling each other. Perfect  Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 373
Merit: 250
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

It is good for sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

Well, I'm holding, but want to buy some more so I've just sent some more money to the exchange.... so you can just about guarantee a recovery very soon (before my account gets credited, as usual)  Roll Eyes
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME
LOL I cannot believe you are falling for this perfectly timed bear trap.  It is so obvious
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
what is happening now is a rally between holders to sell without causing any panic, the book order is really thin with few thousands BTC at the Bid side while there is more than 12 million coins out there, do the math.

11 million as Satoshi is in for the long haul. Smiley

Auction is only two days away, so it is quite feasible that coins are being dumped to depress the market "reference" price ahead of bidding.

depressing? is that the right word?

if you are not willing to pay the market price and dumping coins on the market to bid lower...well, then the current market price is not right.

let us see then how much are they willing to pay.

I say 500.

I say its the most stupid forecast and explanation I ever heard.



well, it is even more stupid to think that someone is dumping coins to depress the "reference" price.


What is stupid about dumping coins to depress the reference point? There is nothing stupid about that.


you can manipulate the "reference" price, but how do you manipulate sealed bids?

what happens if you win the auction with 400 $ bid, or if there is not enough interest to buy the coins at all?

By making the assumption that the sealed bids have a relationship with the market price.


HELLO..... Of course sealed bids are gonna relate to the market price, and they will relate to the market price that day 6/26 (tomorrow)  NOT the market price today and NOT the market price 3 years ago, yet the bids will also relate to what price bidders expect bitcoins to become 3 months to 6 months to 1 year into the future.  Bidders are going to have their individualized assessments concerning how much to bid, and the price on 6/26 will be relevant to that assessment. 

I am NOT any kind of sophisticated investor, so I do NOT know exactly what they are thinking, but if I had enough money to buy all of the coins, I would make 10 staggered bids and those staggered bids would be based on BTC market price at the time of my bid, towards the end of the auction time, and they would be staggered in approximately 5.5% increments between about 80% of market price and 135% of market price.   At about the end of the auction, if I was NOT restricted from doing such, I would have a press release announcing what strategy I employed, and if I did NOT win any of the bids, then I would expect that there would be 10 bids that were higher than my highest bid.
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