In order for the price to rally the following needs to occur:
[?] BTC are bought on exchanges
[?] BTC are bought offline in private transactions
[?] BTC are held by people who decide to become long term investors or are not in a position to sell
[?] BTC are purchased in merchandise/services from merchants who hold the BTC as a long term investment rather than selling on exchanges
[?] BTC are lost or are already lost
All of these need to add up to whatever the current markep cap in BTC is (13,000,000 etc)
Even though there are many ways in which each bitcoin can be 'covered', it is still the bitcoin which is the important unit of value here, and all of the above options need to add up to a specific number in bitcoins, NOT in dollars. The U.S.D. or whatever quote currency is used to purchase bitcoins on exchanges is not relevant here. It is true that , over time, less btc are covered by exchange trades and more btc are covered via the other options. However, it is not at the same rate and not nearly at the same rate as the price is changing. There is no direct or indirect proportion to the dollar. The price and the dollar is totally irrelevant.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27238. (Read 26708357 times)
June 11, 2014, 09:47:31 PM
June 11, 2014, 09:39:31 PM
There might be an increase in holding. Though it'd be hard to prove. I know I'm holding more.
June 11, 2014, 09:34:00 PM
BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.
I agree that the lack of volume is very disturbing. I'm skeptical about the level of off the market transactions. Can this volume be identified in the blockchain? Why aren't we reading stories (with solid facts) about it? I know people like to keep things private - but there are a ton of researchers who like to dig things up (ex. the research done into the original Silk Road volume), and at least some bitcoin millionaires who like publicity.
Shouldn't the volume be lower in BTC as the price goes up? How does the volume in USD and CNY compare?
June 11, 2014, 09:33:34 PM
Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant? I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.
It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is). And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.
By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).
Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that. If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!
You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.
No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.
Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.
Exactly, compare volume in purchasing power.
What you are saying is that $10,000,000 has the same relevance to move the market when:
1. The market cap is $10,000,000 and 100% of the coins are being purchased
2. The market cap is $100,000,000 and 10% of the coins are being purchased
3. The market cap is $100,000,000,000 and 0.01% of the coins are being purchased
4. The market cap is $10 and it is impossible to even purchase that many coins.
This is clearly false.
Correct, that's false.
But what you said earlier entails that volume in base currency needs to remain constant as price increases. This is clearly false as well, unless you want to argue that the past 3 years of growth are all going to crumble. Base currency volume is slowly falling over time, and that seems to be okay.
Which doesn't mean the current volume is enough to support the current growth. I'm pretty sure it is not, and I believe that was your point as well.
For all the people arguing with me about USD vs BTC volume, I have yet another point to make: Look at the previous drops in December/January and Feburary. They all had a much higher volume than the current rally while being at the same price area.
June 11, 2014, 09:21:12 PM
Some rather odd and fairly large (150+) BTC price insensitive market orders going in on Stamp just then.....
.....looks like arbitrage takers are on the move.
.....looks like arbitrage takers are on the move.
June 11, 2014, 09:15:56 PM
Lulz at all da bears trying their darnedest to "engineer" a fake down trend. It's so cute. 
June 11, 2014, 09:15:30 PM
BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.
I agree that the lack of volume is very disturbing. I'm skeptical about the level of off the market transactions. Can this volume be identified in the blockchain? Why aren't we reading stories (with solid facts) about it? I know people like to keep things private - but there are a ton of researchers who like to dig things up (ex. the research done into the original Silk Road volume), and at least some bitcoin millionaires who like publicity.
June 11, 2014, 09:09:38 PM
The news is good the price is low so what happens tomorrow?
June 11, 2014, 09:03:33 PM
the bear keeps selling
June 11, 2014, 09:02:29 PM
June 11, 2014, 09:02:25 PM
...
Blasphemy on the bear population, calling them cannibals... which they may be... they certainly are carnivores... at least most of them, thinking of the pandas.
...
Blasphemy on the bear population, calling them cannibals... which they may be... they certainly are carnivores... at least most of them, thinking of the pandas.
...
Take it from a reluctant bear, we're omnivores. From berries to honey to fish to an occasional camper (but only as a special treat).
~Mishka
June 11, 2014, 08:58:59 PM
Nah. Happens quite often. Maybe everyone else is waiting for the next person to pull the trigger with a saucy comment.
June 11, 2014, 08:14:14 PM
Got your beer Adam! Cheers mate!
June 11, 2014, 08:09:21 PM
Cooking ox tail soup?
Nope. Too tough.
Nice juicy tender bear meat.
Blasphemy on the bear population, calling them cannibals... which they may be... they certainly are carnivores... at least most of them, thinking of the pandas.
Actually bitcoin bears may be like pandas and meat. Pandas could eat meat and have a more nutritious existence, but instead pandas choose to eat bamboo... for some strange reason.
Bitcoin bears could choose bitcoin and be better off financially, yet they choose fiat for some strange reason.
June 11, 2014, 08:08:30 PM
For those of you who feel a little uneasy because of the latest 'dip'...
I superimposed the current trend (over the last 50 days) with the run-ups to the April and November 2013 peaks.
We still seem to be right on track for a peak between $4000 and $5000...
Good news is we only need to wait a fortnight (maximum) to find out if history will repeat itself.
edit: This plot has the peak occurring in late July, which is based on the assumption that the peaks occur (approximately) every 234 days (an assumption based on historical data).
I superimposed the current trend (over the last 50 days) with the run-ups to the April and November 2013 peaks.
We still seem to be right on track for a peak between $4000 and $5000...
Good news is we only need to wait a fortnight (maximum) to find out if history will repeat itself.
edit: This plot has the peak occurring in late July, which is based on the assumption that the peaks occur (approximately) every 234 days (an assumption based on historical data).
Nice graph! This is looking very promising, let's hope history will repeat itself.
About 2-3 weeks left to buy cheaply it seems
June 11, 2014, 08:07:50 PM
June 11, 2014, 08:01:00 PM
June 11, 2014, 07:55:51 PM
idk about you guys but i've been buying 
You just told us to sell a couple of hours ago. So, I was considering selling my whole stash based on your seemingly sage advices.
Did you drink all of the beer bits?
June 11, 2014, 07:55:41 PM
Cooking ox tail soup?
Nope. Too tough.
Nice juicy tender bear meat.
June 11, 2014, 07:53:28 PM
idk about you guys but i've been buying
You just told us to sell a couple of hours ago. So, I was considering selling my whole stash based on your seemingly sage advices.
Did you drink all of the beer bits?
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