Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27349. (Read 26608963 times)

There was a big wall at $650, pretty sure it got ate.

Are you really of the opinion that those walls are for real?  Surely some of them may be for real, but they are easily pulled, as well.

I know I know i was just kidding 

Definitely didn't sell at the bottom. I'm all bull here if you haven't noticed.

I suspect some whale will buy his own coins to to start the "choo choo effect". It wouldn't be the first time.

months old news ! where have you been under a rock? lmao 

The longer term your game, the more sure footed you will be.

Long term: log trendline is the most powerful model we've got. First, there is an explanation for why the model should work. Second, there are 5 years of data to support the model pretty darn well.

Medium term: cycles of boom-bust with a period of 200+ days. The data seems to fit this remarkably well. It's almost incredible to look at the charts and see how well spaced apart the peaks are. And it makes sense that there should be oscillations above and below the log trendline. But: why do the largest booms and busts come at that frequency? I don't know, and I don't know of any theories why it should be so, so that is a weakness of the medium term predictions.

Short term predictions: technical analysis. I've never studied TA but I've never seen a compelling reason to waste my time. There's just way too much voodoo and reading tea leaves.

So to sum up: Investment decisions should be based almost completely on long term thinking (log trendline model, supported by an understanding of the fundamentals). Some smaller decisions should perhaps be based on medium term thinking (like, we're below the trendline, and it's nearing time for the next boom). I don't think TA or any other short-term games should play a significant role at all in any investment decisions.


Yes, it is gambling! That's exactly right!!

Matt: You've got the intelligence. You just need some patience!! (My apologies ahead of time for the unsolicited advice  )

That is very intimidating

No there are already orders placed @ 700

It is a wall.

That could only happen if some 21 million other bitcoins were lost on accident.  Or the galactic council decided to admit the Earth.

So once we hit that 700,- people start selling like crazies?

That ought to be fun

Explanation

Yeah, but he is already starting out with bullshit nonsense questions that do NOT make any sense in real application.... too exaggerated a scenario.  Surely, there are some people who are considerably fantastical, but one should NOT judge the whole bitcoin community as if we were all fantastical (or cult or religion, either)

It means there's a lot of sell orders @ 700

But do you actually disagree?  I think everyone who does agree with the indicative value of the log trendline would agree with your statement that there is no way the log trend is going to hold, in the sense of holding indefinitely.  But, for example, it is difficult to imagine how sufficient bitcoin could be supplied to WBIT without the log trendline holding through at least early 2015.

I consider the log trendline strongly indicative, but I don't expect 1000% this year.  I quoted 648x7 recently in this thread, and if WBIT does not list this year I consider that the probable high.  Next year may exceed 1000% however.

What does this exactly mean? Ask depth and such..

onward movement towards 700? Or going lower?

If you frame the problem like that, then I am in the nrd525 camp.  I would think that growth rates in the 2X to 4X territory would be somewhat reasonable and sustainable... though I doubt that there is any kind of straight or exponential line b/c there could be events that cause greater variance, as you, nrd525, seem to be suggesting.

Didn't realise BTC now the currency du jour for blackmailers:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/02/cryptolocker-virus-nca-malware-protection

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

Greenlion, I am NOT sufficiently familiar with mathematical terms sufficiently to understand your point.  Are you suggesting that the current models that suggest a 10x annual uptrend until we reach 50% market saturation and then a more leveled growth is too conservative? 

I personally think that BTC should get higher growth rates in the beginning and then taper off ... yet NOT sure about the predictive growth rates exactly.. but 2x to 5X growth rates seem to be more sustainable than ongoing 10x rates... yet I understand why people are predicting 10X growth rates based on networking and exorbitant adoption of the people that comes through networking effects.

Choo Choo?