Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27474. (Read 26709893 times)

Explanation

+ Even whales will move in patterns to maximize their profits. And whales have to manage risks just like everybody else. Being a small fish it is useful to understand this and try also and follow what they are doing. What the do is basically to buy at wholesale and sell to us at retail. I forgot to add volume to my previous list, but that is obviously also very important.

Just woke up (it's the middle of the night for US)... Pretty pleased to see the buy support holding prices in the $620s for right now.

Well, now enjoy the bull market. You do realize we follow a log trend, even if we are still below it now? Don't underestimate resilience. Gox was THE exchange. Now there are dozens of exchanges so if one fails, even Bitstamp or BTC-E which are both untrustworthy in my book, as we have already experienced a major exchange's failure and recovered from that, maybe noobs won't be so afraid when early adopters will tell them "yeah routine, +1000% this year too.". Same goes with government shit. PBOC made unbelievable efforts to make Bitcoin look bad and still here we are.
Don't take a big fall for granted if any bad news, that is what happens in bear markets, not necessarily in bubble times when the momentum is here.

I am not saying you should never sell, i did sell the day of the announce of the malleability of the transactions with the goal of buying back later and did pick the bottom. But don't overestimate yourself, we might just have been both lucky on picking the bottom once. Besides, i DO believe your default choice should be to hold bitcoins, not fiat, especially on these times when we had rallies, are under the long term logtrend, and that you can see many noobs on reddit saying they are coming. Even dogecoiners are finally realizing that Bitcoin is way more valuable and are selling their doge to get bitcoins, as you can see on the DOGE/BTC chart. Yes, even them finallly understand the value of Bitcoin. They needed 6 months to understand why it is better than dogecoin, some people are slow learners.

Anyway good luck with your trading.

C'mon Shroomsy...you've spent the last six months pointing out how 'good news' normally foreshadows a drop in price, so 'news' is hardly an accurate gauge for predicting market movement.

And do you really subscribe to the 'trollbox' world view of 'pump and dump'?  For alts with smaller market cap certainly, but BTC....I think those days are long gone.  Whales may set trends but manipulating the market to the extent of 'pump and dump'; too many actors now.

I haven't studied TA carefully yet, but I think Bitcoin might be a good case for TA, so I plan to get more into it in the future. I have tried drawing some lines and have sometimes been successful. If you see a pattern forming then go with it, but if it stops behaving like you expected then reconsider.

The main things I monitor/use are:
- Support and resistance
- Candles and MACD on different time frames
- RSI (not sure how useful it is, but used in conjunction with other indicators it can help to make a more informed decision)
- The sentiment
- The average BTC price (I some times use this to determine if walls are put in place because someone wishes to sell at that price or if they are used to push the price down)
- TA from TradingView + my own DIY TA

It's called the Mandrake Mechanism. According to the legend, when the root(Mandrake) is dug up, it screams and kills all who hear it.

Excellent video.

Uh...ok Morpheus.

Do you mean 'weird'....or is this some new street slang?

What is weird about (what is essentially) mathematics?

There is no TA in the Bitcoin market. The prices are controlled by whales who pump and dump how and when they like. And also by the news. 2 things the traders can't control or predict. All they can do is run behind it and hope they get lucky.

And that's exactly what you see most traders here do.

Really TA is something beyond my ability as I'm lazy spending time learning it. Because of my inability, I found it wired.

I must admit TA is not wired but useful in many cases, for many people. For me, I would just leave it as it gives me more uncertainty.

The certain thing under my territory is to buy dollar average cost and hodl, until my expectation appears. I wish this  works with bitcoin this time.

It is good to be fearful when trading Bitcoin because bad news can strike at any moment. A DDOS on an exchange is all it (could) take. For this reason I always have a stop loss in place. My overall strategy is to add to winners and quickly take down losers. It is pretty easy for me to enter and exit because I only have 10 BTC to play with. Currently I'm holding half my stash and I occasionally trade with the other half. Doing it this way gives me more confidence in my decisions, helps me sleep better at night, and still provides gives me a very good feel for where the market is currently headed. It is working out ok, but I would have done better if I had been holding all my BTC since $340 or indeed since $450. This is my first experience with a bull market and I'm still a newbe trader. The bear market taught me to cash out my winners early. I still do this with half my stash the moment I sense a drop is incoming. An example of this is when we had the latest drop: I got out just before it happened and I called the bottom perfectly. But then I took my winner to early and missed the quick rise back. I feel I keep learning and this is also important for me.

Yeah, i kind of enjoyed the trolling of fonzie. Unfortunately it seems he had rough days lately. It is not easy to have the guts to come trolling here when you were shorting BTC during a rally.

You are 100% correct. These traders are completely obsessed with charts, fractals and lines and fail to see that buying and holding is very often (way) more profitable.
They are obsessed with ridiculous buy in goals which they rarely get. The few times they make some profit is not worth it because they lose it again plus more when they miss the train. Which in the end they pretty much all do.

We all know the result. Sad and pathetic attempts to spread doom around here because they need the market to go down.

Anyway, it's kinda fun to watch so i hope they won't stop.

I'd safely bet my house on it to be fair...

Bitcoin isn't going that low again unless there is a serious problem with the protocol itself IMO.

End of Q2 is June 30, so 30 more days.  Doesn't seem very likely, but still possible.

Explanation

Its a fact that most traders lose money and buy and hold is the best stratergy for most. IF you can play the game though there are good profits to be made.

Yeah, it sounds like the best way to minimize your profits. You guys make me feel i do have an edge on most of you even if i don't believe in TA. I just think there is a 90%+ probability that we will be north 10 000$ by the end of 2015 and bought a lot of BTC. I believed a BTC for 600$ is a steal, and i bought, and again at 550$, 500$ to 425$ which is my lowest buying. Unfortunately i missed the fall to 340$ because i am in the wrong GMT. At 425$ it was an obvious buy, but you guys were posting random charts to say we might go a few bucks below so you have not bought for most of the daytraders. And now we are at 622$ and instead of double thinking and wondering if it is amazingly cheap, you are trying to buy at like 610$ risking to see 700$ overnight.

At some point many of you should realize hodlers have an edge on most of you, and especially you edward.

Let us hope they start buying now I remember the dip to $340 and thinking "this is the end". I took me a long time @ $450 I started feeling just a bit confident that the fractal wouldn't repeat and that it might be a good time to buy.

Currently the sentiment is so bullish. I just witnessed how multiple "small" traders was taking out a buy wall that in principle was way too big for them. They could have waited and tried to use the wall to their advantage, but they just bought it. It took them an hour to get the job done Is now the time to be fearful or to hope that whoever put up the wall will soon need to buy back at a higher price? I think it best to always be fearful when trading Bitcoin