Long-time no post, have been having a break from crypto while waiting to see where price goes while keeping an eye on latest events.
A few things I'm paying attention to right now:
- According to FTX bankruptcy filings, they don't hold any Bitcoin. Likely they never did. Therefore there won't be any future Bitcoin liquidations from this entity.
- Ie based on these proceedings, a sell-off of BTC from this exchange can be ruled out, unlike like 3AC/Luna liquidations that forced prices lower.
- Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.
A few points on price right now:
- Most speculators are again now expecting at least $14K, or more likely $12K, even $10K. Nothing has really changed here, only increased bearish conviction.
- To this point; I can fully understand why. There is a massive trading gap between $17.5K and $12K (ie no support), despite accumulation at current prices.
- Ironically if BTC had held $30K until recently prior to dropping to $15K, many would instead consider this a bottom, as would be very similar as 2018 capitulation.
A few other random thoughts:
I think it's too early to tell where price heads next, probably as many wait to see how far the contagion spreads, and whether it leads to further liquidations. Nobody really knows how far it will spread either, without insider knowledge that is. Either below $15.5K we finally reach the most bearish targets, or a move back above $18K could lead lead to a bullish monthly close above $19.5K.
The positives to take away from this recent capitulation is that based on volume as well as time, the recent drop is more than sufficient for a bottom. The only lacking factor is an -83% correction similar to previous cycles towards $12K, as many anticipate, despite this current cycle being very different to others (double top without parabolic move to end bull trend).
As for inflation, recession? Bitcoin has
so far preformed better this year in it's bear market than in 2018. One year after ATH and it's down -77% compared to -83%. Notably in 2015 the bear market took 13.5 months to reach -83%, so clearly there is still time for further downside, but otherwise inflation hasn't caused price to collapse
further than usual - only
quicker than usual.
There are three things which are keeping me optimistic that we're not going to see the price go much lower.
Firstly, following the FTX debacle, there's been a huge removal of coins from exchanges, through fear of whether exchanges hold sufficient reserves. NYKNYC, etc. This increase of scarcity of BTC on exchanges could support (maybe increase?) the price as demand exceeds supply.
Secondly, there's no reason for the FTX contagion to spread beyond shitcoins and into BTC (other than misconceived and ill-educated opinion)
Thirdly, BTC tends to do what's least expected - so if the masses (with their misconceived and ill-educated opinion, fuelled also by MSM) are expecting contagion to flow into BTC and cause panic sells then.....it probably won't happen.
Hey, I'm just trying to be optimistic here