Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27585.

bitfair

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Quote from: joehal on May 26, 2014, 07:01:51 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 05:31:45 AM

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread. "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives. Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

That's a pretty reasonable point of view. It's just that with this approach one could never profit from early investments in startups and unverified ideas.

However, by that measure bitcoin has already achieved success. The bitcoin network currently mediates between 50 and 60 thousand transactions every day, transferring an estimated 70 million USD every day.

As far as bootstrapped nascent currency experiments go, bitcoin should certainly fulfill many criteria for "success" already.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 07:33:57 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 26, 2014, 06:38:44 AM

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

The original poster asked what I would consider proof of success. Obviously that can only be empirical.

Logic can only change someone's expectations of success. I could be argued out of my position, but I see big flaws in the supporter's arguments (like "the price will go to the moon because the supply is limited") which they refuse to acknowledge. Why should I change my expectations then?

Growing demand + limited supply = growing prices
Extremely rapid deman growth + limited supply = extremely rapid price expansion

rpietila

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Quote from: wachtwoord on May 26, 2014, 07:30:07 AM

Quote from: rpietila on May 26, 2014, 07:27:46 AM

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....

...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.

But short term there are timescales in which you'll lose money. This is where patience comes in. If you don't have patience for Bitcoin, good luck with any other investment ever.

That's what I mean. Every holding is an investment. If you have any fiat in any bank, its value may also fluctuate. Only if you don't own absolutely anything, are you free of this. Holding cash for 2 years is impossible for 40% of people, there is a total loss no matter what Grin

I renounced silver (which I did for profession) in 2013-2-6 and urged all my readers, customers and investors to buy BTC. They are now sitting on about 4000% gains. And that is not even 2 years..

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 26, 2014, 06:38:44 AM

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

The original poster asked what I would consider proof of success. Obviously that can only be empirical.

Logic can only change someone's expectations of success. I could be argued out of my position, but I see big flaws in the supporter's arguments (like "the price will go to the moon because the supply is limited") which they refuse to acknowledge. Why should I change my expectations then?

wachtwoord

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Quote from: rpietila on May 26, 2014, 07:27:46 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 26, 2014, 06:35:29 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 06:33:07 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

You only need an extremely rough estimate of future value to make this a good investment as long as the estimate is several orders of magnitude above the current price.

The collective mind of the market obviously does not believe in that...

lol @ perfect market theory. There are endless examples of why that theory is as flawed as can be. The market is retarded (every market is, shallow markets more than others) and there lies the opportunity to buy assets for less than they're worth.

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....

...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.

But short term there are timescales in which you'll lose money. This is where patience comes in. If you don't have patience for Bitcoin, good luck with any other investment ever.

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 26, 2014, 06:35:29 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 06:33:07 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

You only need an extremely rough estimate of future value to make this a good investment as long as the estimate is several orders of magnitude above the current price.

The collective mind of the market obviously does not believe in that...

lol @ perfect market theory. There are endless examples of why that theory is as flawed as can be. The market is retarded (every market is, shallow markets more than others) and there lies the opportunity to buy assets for less than they're worth.

The reason that BTC is so cheap and progresses so slowly is that people are only exponentially "getting it". As long as this persists, however, it will grow exponentially, and unless you can't wait for 2 years to see the results, then ....

...you should ANYWAY buy all the bitcoins you can, because historically it has been the best investment in all timescales.

akujin

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Little spike on btc-e€ Grin

500€!!!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btceur

Maybe he thought he's buying at the usd market Grin

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: wachtwoord on May 26, 2014, 06:40:36 AM

So taking part in discussion is no longer useful for him. He needs to sit back and wait.

I am not here to convince anyone, but when someone posts something that I think is wrong of course I may choose to reply.

joehal

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 05:31:45 AM

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread. "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives. Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

That's a pretty reasonable point of view. It's just that with this approach one could never profit from early investments in startups and unverified ideas.

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

billyjoeallen

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Hide your women

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 26, 2014, 06:40:36 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 26, 2014, 06:38:44 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 05:31:45 AM

Quote from: Cassius on May 26, 2014, 05:17:38 AM

@Jorge
I'm curious. You're an academic, and a scientist, I believe. So any theory you hold must be falsifiable in order to be viewed as credible.
Under what criteria would you entertain the idea that you might be wrong about bitcoin, or cryptocurrency in general?

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread. "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives. Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

Offline key/address generation and asymmetric crypto-signing of "digital checks" are undeniable wins that I am sure will be widely adopted eventually. As for the rest of the bitcoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain in particular, I am more skeptical than ever.

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

So taking part in discussion is no longer useful for him. He needs to sit back and wait.

It's worse than that. A man who can't be persuaded by logic or reason is attempting to persuade others by logic or reason. That necessarily means the only people he could convince are people more open to logic and reason than he is himself. It's a hypocrisy that speaks more to the sorry state of academia than to anything else. These professors are not teaching students how to think. They are telling them WHAT to think.

xalex

newbie

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It's the Pimp dinosaur!

Quote from: Trolololo on May 26, 2014, 06:04:05 AM

Big spike in Huobi 1d chart.

https://i.imgur.com/54L72h2.png

Quote from: magicmexican on May 21, 2014, 05:54:57 AM

Quote from: flynn on May 21, 2014, 05:12:39 AM

there is clearly an urgent need for some dinosaurs

http://i.gyazo.com/7694e645bc7f207bcb7e5ab1de144593.png

mmitech

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Activity: 1148

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things you own end up owning you

windjc didn't respect the terms of our bet, we made a deal that each one has to keep 20 BTC in a separate address that he controls so we can check all the time, but soon after he used the 20 BTC again, I think he thought I would just check once instead I had the address on my watching list.

be a man or stop pretending to be one. I withdraw my bet.

sidhujag

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Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Doing some simple economics tells you at this price Bitcoin is a great investment.. all signs are a go not sure why I would tell anyone not to invest other than those who dont have a grasp on supply demand and cant see the skew towards higher demand in the future. Just that those that I would tell wouldnt have a high enough IQ to understand what I was saying without fully going through the learnig curve of understanding all of the basic dynamics of bitcoin investment. So to average people I tell them read about it.. to smarter ppl I tell them yes its a buy.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 26, 2014, 06:38:44 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 05:31:45 AM

Quote from: Cassius on May 26, 2014, 05:17:38 AM

@Jorge
I'm curious. You're an academic, and a scientist, I believe. So any theory you hold must be falsifiable in order to be viewed as credible.
Under what criteria would you entertain the idea that you might be wrong about bitcoin, or cryptocurrency in general?

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread. "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives. Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

Offline key/address generation and asymmetric crypto-signing of "digital checks" are undeniable wins that I am sure will be widely adopted eventually. As for the rest of the bitcoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain in particular, I am more skeptical than ever.

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

So taking part in discussion is no longer useful for him. He needs to sit back and wait.

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 05:31:45 AM

Quote from: Cassius on May 26, 2014, 05:17:38 AM

@Jorge
I'm curious. You're an academic, and a scientist, I believe. So any theory you hold must be falsifiable in order to be viewed as credible.
Under what criteria would you entertain the idea that you might be wrong about bitcoin, or cryptocurrency in general?

I answered this some 6,223,678,221 pages ago on this thread. "Success" will be when bitcoin (or crypto) gets used by a large number of people because it is cheaper/faster/safer/easier/whatever than the alternatives. Not because one has a BTC stash to burn, not to support the cause, not to evade taxes or make illegal payments, not because it is hip, not to speculate with, not out of curiosity, etc.

Offline key/address generation and asymmetric crypto-signing of "digital checks" are undeniable wins that I am sure will be widely adopted eventually. As for the rest of the bitcoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain in particular, I am more skeptical than ever.

What's notable is that Trolfi admitted he couldn't be argued out of his position, so only empirical evidence will convince him.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 06:33:07 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

You only need an extremely rough estimate of future value to make this a good investment as long as the estimate is several orders of magnitude above the current price.

The collective mind of the market obviously does not believe in that...

lol @ perfect market theory. There are endless examples of why that theory is as flawed as can be. The market is retarded (every market is, shallow markets more than others) and there lies the opportunity to buy assets for less than they're worth.

Cassius

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1031

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 26, 2014, 06:22:41 AM

Quote from: Cassius on May 26, 2014, 05:53:16 AM

And in the interests of making it a fair experiment, do you ever worry that your posts/articles might prevent that limited adoption happening (which would seem very unscientific)? And if not, what is the purpose of making them?

I doubt that this thread has more than 1000 readers. If having one skeptical poster here can prevent the success of bitcoin, then you should all dump your coins and get out of this losing game, as fast as you can.

Independently of its probability of success as defined above, bitcoin may be a fun gambling game, but is a terrible investment, because there is no reliable way to estimate its future value. Unfortunately some sleazy salesmen are touting bitcoin to unwary people as a good investment, even as a hedge against the 1%/yr inflation of the dollar or the 6-7%/yr inflation of Brazil. (Even with the recent spurt, Bitcoin's annualized inflation rate since january has been ~100%/yr.) We see plenty of examples right here. (Sure, if one had a time machine and could invest in September 2013, the return would be fantastic; but, with that tool, playing the roulette at Las Vegas would be even better.) Thus if you want to help someone, tell him/her NOT to invest in bitcoin.

You're not just posting in this thread. You've written articles about bitcoin and you're advising your students not to go near it.
I don't think that's going to have a serious effect on bitcoin's long-term adoption prospects, either. It may even be beneficial.
I'm just not entirely sure you know why you spend so much time here.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: ?? on ??

You only need an extremely rough estimate of future value to make this a good investment as long as the estimate is several orders of magnitude above the current price.

The collective mind of the market obviously does not believe in that...

JustAnotherSheep

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Merit: 100

Quote from: Trolololo on May 26, 2014, 06:04:05 AM

Big spike in Huobi 1d chart.

Beached whale? Cheesy

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27585. (Read 26712708 times)