Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion - page 27757. (Read 26711086 times)

Quote from: Erdogan on May 14, 2014, 03:24:43 AM

IF it takes off all over the world.. then the Chinese government, despite their efforts won't be able to stop people.

Just to make my perhaps radical view clear, I would like nothing less than an immediate official ban on Bitcoin in China, so the taking off can happen much quicker. If the Chinese government doesn't double down on its efforts to stamp out Bitcoin in China immediately, then I think we may be in for more teething problems.

I would tend to agree.. and whoever said.. i think that might be their plan.. could also be correct.
It just looks like a continued and ongoing fudge attempt. I'm still long term bull.. in fact more than ever.
I expect all sorts of roadblocks and fireworks along the way.. but make no mistake.. this is happening.
I am convinced that we've already passed the tipping point.. the point of no return. There is just far too much momentum behind this thing.
It won't be stopped. It can't be stopped. The genie is out of the bottle.
Even China.. i think most here would agree.. for all their efforts.. they are only slowing the progress a bit. If it's 1 year..2 years or 5 years.. long term it's not so important.
It's just a delaying tactic to buy time while they scratch their collective heads and try to counter this.. problem is.. they can't and don't know how.
Roadblocks and delaying tactics will only work for so long.
The game has already changed.

windjc

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Quote from: windjc on May 14, 2014, 12:56:22 AM

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.
[...]

It is not obvious, not even correct.

The price come from the minds of all actors. When they take action like putting up a bid or an ask, we have supply and demand. Low trade volume means all traders change their minds in concert. Under low volume, prices can go up, down or sideways. Low volume and sideways price action, like we have had the last days, means that all actors are happy with the current price and their current stash.

When some traders change their mind, up or down, and take action differently from all others, we have trade volume.

For fiat in or out to exchanges to be necessary, we need to have new persons to get interested and value bitcoin above the current equilibrium price. Current holders value it lower and sells the same amount. That is the meaning of equilibrium, which we have at all times as long as the exchanges work.

So we can have low volume, high volume with current users, and high volume with new users. The prices are not directly connected.

This post is rambling nonsense. Your talking about volume. Im talking about price.

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Government (china) can make bitcoin illegal, put it in the same place where drugs are... I don't know if china kills people for drug use... how this gonna affect bitcoin?

Quote from: YipYip on May 14, 2014, 03:14:28 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on May 14, 2014, 03:27:23 AM

Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.

I am a long-term bull but what you hope for is not enough. Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China (and clearly this is what the Chinese government wants) then Houston, we have a problem! (Please see above posts for why I think this is the case)

'

Bullshit....

Bitcoin > CHina

+1,000

Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China

IF it takes off all over the world.. then the Chinese government, despite their efforts won't be able to stop people.
The great Firewall of Chine people.. it couldn't stop the internet.. sure it made it less straightforward.. but if people want something.. then their government sure as hell won't be able to stop them. So.. if it 'takes off all over the world' - there'll be nobody left behind.. everyone will want some regardless of what their government tells them.

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Quote from: atoni on May 14, 2014, 03:28:24 AM

IF it takes off all over the world.. then the Chinese government, despite their efforts won't be able to stop people.

Just to make my perhaps radical view clear, I would like nothing less than an immediate official ban on Bitcoin in China, so the taking off can happen much quicker. If the Chinese government doesn't double down on its efforts to stamp out Bitcoin in China immediately, then I think we may be in for more teething problems.

I think that is their plan.

Erdogan

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In any market price is directly dependent to amount of money willing to enter the market.

No. See above.

atoni

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In any market price is directly dependent to amount of money willing to enter the market.

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Quote from: windjc on May 14, 2014, 12:56:22 AM

IF it takes off all over the world.. then the Chinese government, despite their efforts won't be able to stop people.

Just to make my perhaps radical view clear, I would like nothing less than an immediate official ban on Bitcoin in China, so the taking off can happen much quicker. If the Chinese government doesn't double down on its efforts to stamp out Bitcoin in China immediately, then I think we may be in for more teething problems.

Erdogan

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Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.
[...]

It is not obvious, not even correct.

The price come from the minds of all actors. When they take action like putting up a bid or an ask, we have supply and demand. Low trade volume means all traders change their minds in concert. Under low volume, prices can go up, down or sideways. Low volume and sideways price action, like we have had the last days, means that all actors are happy with the current price and their current stash.

When some traders change their mind, up or down, and take action differently from all others, we have trade volume.

For fiat in or out to exchanges to be necessary, we need to have new persons to get interested and value bitcoin above the current equilibrium price. Current holders value it lower and sells the same amount. That is the meaning of equilibrium, which we have at all times as long as the exchanges work.

So we can have low volume, high volume with current users, and high volume with new users. The prices are not directly connected.

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Quote from: YipYip on May 14, 2014, 03:14:28 AM

Quote from: YipYip on May 14, 2014, 03:14:28 AM

Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.

I am a long-term bull but what you hope for is not enough. Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China (and clearly this is what the Chinese government wants) then Houston, we have a problem! (Please see above posts for why I think this is the case)

'

Bullshit....

Bitcoin > CHina

+1,000

Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China

IF it takes off all over the world.. then the Chinese government, despite their efforts won't be able to stop people.
The great Firewall of Chine people.. it couldn't stop the internet.. sure it made it less straightforward.. but if people want something.. then their government sure as hell won't be able to stop them. So.. if it 'takes off all over the world' - there'll be nobody left behind.. everyone will want some regardless of what their government tells them.

T.Stuart

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Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.

I am a long-term bull but what you hope for is not enough. Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China (and clearly this is what the Chinese government wants) then Houston, we have a problem! (Please see above posts for why I think this is the case)

'

Bullshit....

Bitcoin > CHina

Of course in the wider scheme of things I agree with your equation YipYip. And you would probably have lol'd in my face if I had earnestly typed "Bitcoin > Gox" a few months ago. But unfortunately while Gox was still alive it wasn't. (I mean it didn't just take off in an opposite direction regardless)

windjc

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All I'm saying guys is that China will lead until new money comes. The general consensus is that new money will come with new US exchanges and investment vehicles. I hope that this holds some truth. But we are several months away from that. And several months means there is a gap where the market is extremely vulnerable.

Unless some other unforeseen country fills the void being long is risky short to intermediate term.

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Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.

I am a long-term bull but what you hope for is not enough. Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China (and clearly this is what the Chinese government wants) then Houston, we have a problem! (Please see above posts for why I think this is the case)

'

Bullshit....

Bitcoin > CHina

atoni

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Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.

I am a long-term bull but what you hope for is not enough. Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China (and clearly this is what the Chinese government wants) then Houston, we have a problem! (Please see above posts for why I think this is the case)

Thats exactly my point because chinese were the ones putting most of fresh money.

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Quote from: windjc on May 14, 2014, 02:56:52 AM

Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.

I am a long-term bull but what you hope for is not enough. Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China (and clearly this is what the Chinese government wants) then Houston, we have a problem! (Please see above posts for why I think this is the case)

T.Stuart

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Quote from: T.Stuart on May 14, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on May 14, 2014, 02:41:35 AM

windjc, while realising that fresh fiat is important its also necessary to remember the other ways the market can move. eta say theres $10mm on the sidelines at Stamp. Say there's 10k BTC to $1000 if the sellers all leave their sells then $10mm is needed to get there. Say the sentiment changes and or good news. All of a sudden there's only 4k BTC to $1000 this only takes $4mm, 60% less. Im not arguing that fresh fiat isn't important or that it wouldn't help the cause but I think its important to consider other dynamics in the price rising.

Sentiment is not going to change without fresh fiat. It's not. Hell, how much more bullish can sentiment get anyway? We are in a 5 month bear market and most people here are incredibly optimistic. However, these same people have very little new money to invest.

If no one chooses to sell we can't go down. But the longer we flatline the greater the chance that "big bad news" from China will rear its head.

And for those of you that say it can't get worse, it CAN.

I.e. ---> Houbi closes, Houbi is insolvent, China bans bitcoin literally including exchanges, etc etc

All that would be incredibly bullish in my opinion (after a short sharp slap of course!)

I know why you say that, but China exchanges being open and solvent adds to the overall demand. So really it's not bullish.

With the investment being made in a plethora of services in the US alone, and the current stance of the gov there, I think the demand would quickly be replaced.

In my eyes the biggest problem facing BTC price appreciation now and for the foreseeable future is simply continuing the status quo, without any extra bad news from China necessary at the moment.

In a "perfect" Bitcoin-world (Moon and space programs

) Huobi and the rest would establish themselves outside of China as soon as possible. Or China bans Bitcoin.

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Explanation

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Quote from: T.Stuart on May 14, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

I.e. ---> Houbi closes, Houbi is insolvent, China bans bitcoin literally including exchanges, etc etc

This is unlikely. However, for the sake of argument, let's assume it happens. Exchanges will then move their operations offshore. Traders cannot get money in (which is already the current case) and traders cannot get money out (which only means buying btc). So I do not think this is a worse news. Please offer counter argument.

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Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.

windjc

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Quote from: dreamspark on May 14, 2014, 02:41:35 AM

windjc, while realising that fresh fiat is important its also necessary to remember the other ways the market can move. eta say theres $10mm on the sidelines at Stamp. Say there's 10k BTC to $1000 if the sellers all leave their sells then $10mm is needed to get there. Say the sentiment changes and or good news. All of a sudden there's only 4k BTC to $1000 this only takes $4mm, 60% less. Im not arguing that fresh fiat isn't important or that it wouldn't help the cause but I think its important to consider other dynamics in the price rising.

Sentiment is not going to change without fresh fiat. It's not. Hell, how much more bullish can sentiment get anyway? We are in a 5 month bear market and most people here are incredibly optimistic. However, these same people have very little new money to invest.

If no one chooses to sell we can't go down. But the longer we flatline the greater the chance that "big bad news" from China will rear its head.

And for those of you that say it can't get worse, it CAN.

I.e. ---> Houbi closes, Houbi is insolvent, China bans bitcoin literally including exchanges, etc etc

All that would be incredibly bullish in my opinion (after a short sharp slap of course!)

I know why you say that, but China exchanges being open and solvent adds to the overall demand. So really it's not bullish.

T.Stuart

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