Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27823.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: windjc on May 12, 2014, 02:18:40 PM

I think these markets are close to dying in China. The volume is now anemic. It's drying up.

New fiat can't get in, so we can't rally. And there is not a lot of motivation to sell as people watch and wait.

But how can this not end badly? The exchanges have little to no way to make money now. So, the only "news" coming down the pipeline can be bad news. And when that hits, people will have a reason to sell.

It looks like we might be flat and then - boom - large capitulation event.

Could be days, weeks or months away though.

could be years away.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3962

Merit: 11519

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: octaft on May 12, 2014, 01:39:56 PM

Quote from: aminorex on May 12, 2014, 05:29:48 AM

saying that religion causes wars is like saying chemicals cause cancer. i have yet to see any living thing that did without chemicals, or any conscious mind that did without beliefs which cannot be concluded by evidence and logic alone.

it is difficult to take seriously anyone who attempts to preclude argument by declaring that disagreement is in itself disqualifying evidence - and probably not worth the effort to do so.

I think this is highly dependent on what you consider a "belief." If belief strictly means religion, I couldn't disagree more, agnostics being the clearest example. Or are we talking about beliefs like "I believe my wife isn't cheating on me." Even then, one could argue that you logically think that because you have a good relationship, or she is a very loyal person in general, or maybe you're just good at laying the pipe. I honestly have a hard time agreeing that no person can only have beliefs backed in evidence and logic.

I believe that Aminorex's point is valid, and there is NO person who does NOT make leaps of faith in his/her daily activities. Whether those leaps of faith rise to the level of a religion may be another story. Sometimes our leaps of faith are about matters that are so trivial no one would call those particular believes as part of a religion b/c they may NOT be part of any regular routine practice or deeply held. An atheist may deny that some of his/her practices are religious, yet many atheists, if interviewed (or interrogated) would end up disclosing that his/her logic only carries so much of the burden. Even within belief systems, some individuals are highly reflective and introspective, and others could NOT be bothered with such, unless you catch them on a "good" day in which they have been well fed, well rested and generally NOT preoccupied by real concerns, such as the volatility of BTC prices.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Saw many years ago in some nature documentary: two mosquitoes feeding side by side on someone's arm. Then the guy squashes one of them. The other one keeps feeding, does not even ~~blink~~ twitch an antenna.

That scene comes to my mind every time I think of Chinese bitcoin traders...

(Did I post this already? If so, sorry, old age is, well, you know...)

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

Quote from: MoreFun on May 12, 2014, 02:41:50 PM

Why? Gox was "dying" for almost one year. Why it needs to be over with chinese exchanges in one month when everyone expect it?

Because your argument is nobody can predict when the boom will occur; therefore, it is not likely to occur now.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Here is a free and gratis prediction: when (if?) the Chinese exchanges shut down, the volume in the Western exchanges will drop by ~50% due to loss of the arbitrage trade with China.

UglyTroll

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

If volumes keep dropping like this, Huobi and OKCoin will be dead in 5 or 6 days Grin

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: windjc on May 12, 2014, 02:18:40 PM

I think these markets are close to dying in China. The volume is now anemic. It's drying up.

They may be dying, but are not dead yet. Daily volumes for the last 5 days (today's incomplete) in kBTC:


  Bitstamp:   6.3   8.3   4.1   8.9   3.8
  BTC-e:      4.2   4.2   2.8   3.6   2.3
  Bitfinex:   3.5   3.1   3.7  10.7   3.2
  Huobi:     40.6  34.6  24.2  33.8  22.3
  OKCoin:    54.1  44.7  38.0  42.9  30.4

Huobi had 350 kBTC once, ~60 kBTC average until Apr/30...

EDIT: perhaps the number of transactions per day is much smaller now.

MoreFun

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Why? Gox was "dying" for almost one year. Why it needs to be over with chinese exchanges in one month when everyone expect it?

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

Quote from: MoreFun on May 12, 2014, 02:36:51 PM

Quote from: windjc on May 12, 2014, 02:18:40 PM

I think these markets are close to dying in China. The volume is now anemic. It's drying up.

New fiat can't get in, so we can't rally. And there is not a lot of motivation to sell as people watch and wait.

But how can this not end badly? The exchanges have little to no way to make money now. So, the only "news" coming down the pipeline can be bad news. And when that hits, people will have a reason to sell.

It looks like we might be flat and then - boom - large capitulation event.

Could be days, weeks or months away though.

Same story was with gox when we were hovering around $100. Lots of people expected boom, but noone knew the boom would come after $1200.

Your logic is anemic.

MoreFun

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Quote from: windjc on May 12, 2014, 02:18:40 PM

I think these markets are close to dying in China. The volume is now anemic. It's drying up.

New fiat can't get in, so we can't rally. And there is not a lot of motivation to sell as people watch and wait.

But how can this not end badly? The exchanges have little to no way to make money now. So, the only "news" coming down the pipeline can be bad news. And when that hits, people will have a reason to sell.

It looks like we might be flat and then - boom - large capitulation event.

Could be days, weeks or months away though.

Same story was with gox when we were hovering around $100. Lots of people expected boom, but noone knew the boom would come after $1200.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

I think these markets are close to dying in China. The volume is now anemic. It's drying up.

New fiat can't get in, so we can't rally. And there is not a lot of motivation to sell as people watch and wait.

But how can this not end badly? The exchanges have little to no way to make money now. So, the only "news" coming down the pipeline can be bad news. And when that hits, people will have a reason to sell.

It looks like we might be flat and then - boom - large capitulation event.

Could be days, weeks or months away though.

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

octaft

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: aminorex on May 12, 2014, 05:29:48 AM

saying that religion causes wars is like saying chemicals cause cancer. i have yet to see any living thing that did without chemicals, or any conscious mind that did without beliefs which cannot be concluded by evidence and logic alone.

it is difficult to take seriously anyone who attempts to preclude argument by declaring that disagreement is in itself disqualifying evidence - and probably not worth the effort to do so.

I think this is highly dependent on what you consider a "belief." If belief strictly means religion, I couldn't disagree more, agnostics being the clearest example. Or are we talking about beliefs like "I believe my wife isn't cheating on me." Even then, one could argue that you logically think that because you have a good relationship, or she is a very loyal person in general, or maybe you're just good at laying the pipe. I honestly have a hard time agreeing that no person can only have beliefs backed in evidence and logic.

dreamspark

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: latoxine on May 12, 2014, 12:13:56 PM

Quote from: tupelo on May 12, 2014, 12:05:06 PM

In this case no. I would say kraken is a very fine exchange for small traders

Thank you,

In fact, I didn't know ( and I'm not the only one I think because it's not explained were I '' learned" BTC) that I could trade only with the volume available on the website I choosed.

I thought the prices were the same for every one , like for wall street stocks, and that only fees, website bank etc were different.

In general the prices are pretty similar but thats due to arbitrage more than anything else.

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

latoxine

newbie

Activity: 51

Merit: 0

Quote from: tupelo on May 12, 2014, 12:05:06 PM

In this case no. I would say kraken is a very fine exchange for small traders

Thank you,

In fact, I didn't know ( and I'm not the only one I think because it's not explained were I '' learned" BTC) that I could trade only with the volume available on the website I choosed.

I thought the prices were the same for every one , like for wall street stocks, and that only fees, website bank etc were different.

niothor

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 12, 2014, 11:58:16 AM

Looking at the order book at Huobi I had a sudden craving for taffy, I don't know why.

You should also stop checking chinese exchanges , it's bad for your health.

tupelo

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

In this case no. I would say kraken is a very fine exchange for small traders

latoxine

newbie

Activity: 51

Merit: 0

Quote from: tupelo on May 12, 2014, 11:57:07 AM

Quote from: latoxine on May 12, 2014, 11:53:46 AM

I ask you something :

Is there any advantages to trade on a trade website which have a lot of ask/bid ( like huobi, bitstamp ) compare to the small one ?

OR is it like for the polls --> 1000 persons, or 1000000 have the same result ?

Of course. The volume is important as soon as you trade in quantities that move the market price when placed as an order. Nothings sucks more than wanting to dump 100 BTC at a set price but having to resort to 2 BTC micro drops in order to not disturb the market...

Ok if you are an average or big player, but for a ''small' player, you don't really change the market with your orders, and as the price is almost the same than the other big market, so ?! ( in others words, could it be a reason for me ( small player ) to move to bitstamp for example... Wink

)

EDIT : kraken is available, 2 hours blackout

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27823. (Read 26720717 times)