Only problem is... that train is obviously going nowhere...
It will fly away, you only need some imagination to fuel it.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27833. (Read 26709972 times)
May 07, 2014, 06:56:30 AM
May 07, 2014, 06:55:14 AM
The 2014 Price Prediction Contest shows some interesting results:
Taking a simple average of all the predictions, we are forecasted to be at $7.5 (add 000 if you still want to stick to whole bitcoins despite the poll results) at the close of the year. By using geometric averages, which penalize the outlier predictions, the price would be only $3.2
The geometric average is forecasted to grow quite steadily until October, resulting in a 2.5x gain in 6 months from current levels. Compared to the trendline, this would result in the price languishing at about -0.4 or less for all this time, before the turn.
Median (same probability below and above this price) shows even more contained increase with a 10% monthly gain on average.
Even worse for the mode. The most probable (according to forecasters) single price slot for the next 6 months is only around $0.5.
The first prediction round results are here!
We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).
The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:
Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.
Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.
Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".
Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.
Months go from May to December. mBTC, decimal comma.
I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.
We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).
The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:
Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.
Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.
Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".
Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.
Months go from May to December. mBTC, decimal comma.
I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.
Code:
arith ave 2,08 2,57 3,08 3,68 4,35 4,97 5,96 7,47
geom ave 0,58 0,68 0,77 0,92 1,06 1,17 1,90 3,19
median 0,47 0,53 0,6 0,67 0,67 0,75 0,84 0,94
mode 0,47 0,47 0,47 0,53 0,53 0,53 0,6 0,75
Taking a simple average of all the predictions, we are forecasted to be at $7.5 (add 000 if you still want to stick to whole bitcoins despite the poll results) at the close of the year. By using geometric averages, which penalize the outlier predictions, the price would be only $3.2
The geometric average is forecasted to grow quite steadily until October, resulting in a 2.5x gain in 6 months from current levels. Compared to the trendline, this would result in the price languishing at about -0.4 or less for all this time, before the turn.
Median (same probability below and above this price) shows even more contained increase with a 10% monthly gain on average.
Even worse for the mode. The most probable (according to forecasters) single price slot for the next 6 months is only around $0.5.
May 07, 2014, 06:54:36 AM
Last chance to get bitcoins under 1500$.
I like this one
Can anyone remember the link to the collection on train pics? Been looking for it for ages now but havent needed it much the last few months.
It will fly away, you only need some imagination to fuel it.
May 07, 2014, 06:53:27 AM
just in from reddit:
Chill out, we're exactly where we're supposed to be v2 - Chart based on Bitstamp price up to today (This chart holds even better).
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/24xtjt/chill_out_were_exactly_where_were_supposed_to_be/
Chill out, we're exactly where we're supposed to be v2 - Chart based on Bitstamp price up to today (This chart holds even better).
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/24xtjt/chill_out_were_exactly_where_were_supposed_to_be/
Ughhh, the fact that they choose the 13th day of the month to use in that date line makes my brain hurt trying to read it.
May 07, 2014, 06:51:26 AM
Great! We have a small rally and (Chess)nut is back 
May 07, 2014, 06:50:51 AM
Last chance to get bitcoins under 1500$.
I like this one
Can anyone remember the link to the collection on train pics? Been looking for it for ages now but havent needed it much the last few months.
May 07, 2014, 06:46:40 AM
Last chance to get bitcoins under 1500$.
I like this one
Can anyone remember the link to the collection on train pics? Been looking for it for ages now but havent needed it much the last few months.
May 07, 2014, 06:44:00 AM
Finally bears are getting tired of waiting and are thinking this is their last chance to get BTC under $500.
Correct. This is now a 'nervous bear rally' - similar to about 20 in the past few months. May 07, 2014, 06:41:41 AM
Finally bears are getting tired of waiting and are thinking this is their last chance to get BTC under $500.
May 07, 2014, 06:41:34 AM
At some point we wont need the Chinese anymore... I hope it will be soon...
It will happen abruptly at a time that is unpredicable, by nature, and the bears with shoot themselves in the foot when it does.
May 07, 2014, 06:40:24 AM
At some point we wont need the Chinese anymore... I hope it will be soon...
May 07, 2014, 06:40:19 AM
yep healthy signs at significant levels. after the weak effort from the bears in the last weeks this will do a lot of damage to the little bearish momentum that is left.
May 07, 2014, 06:39:54 AM
Guys?
Did I miss the train?
Fuck. I knew it.
Alright, that's it, I'm out for good. No point buying in anymore now that I missed it :/
May 07, 2014, 06:37:21 AM
Great. Now some Chinese central banker is going to write another article about how "bitcoin prices soared 200 yuan into the moon due to more misleading rumors and this is unacceptable" and act even quicker to close the exchanges.
May 07, 2014, 06:36:27 AM
Better be quick, don't miss the train!
May 07, 2014, 06:34:15 AM
Last chance to get bitcoins under 1500$.
May 07, 2014, 06:33:16 AM
just in from reddit:
Chill out, we're exactly where we're supposed to be v2 - Chart based on Bitstamp price up to today (This chart holds even better).
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/24xtjt/chill_out_were_exactly_where_were_supposed_to_be/
Chill out, we're exactly where we're supposed to be v2 - Chart based on Bitstamp price up to today (This chart holds even better).
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/24xtjt/chill_out_were_exactly_where_were_supposed_to_be/
May 07, 2014, 06:32:56 AM
My first train here
May 07, 2014, 06:31:17 AM
I like this train. It is original. Is that the monopoly man?
Yup, thought it could be appropriate.
May 07, 2014, 06:31:03 AM
You're most probably right TERA but still, it's refreshing. Also, trains.
Although this movement goes against my positions, it beats seeing this boring stable trendline.
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