Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27849.

windjc

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 03:12:51 AM

Quote from: p0peji on May 06, 2014, 03:02:52 AM

Great, that stupid POS news killed all the great downward momentum, now it is back to playing the waiting game... Cry

Kinda what I was thinking. The market's been high on Hopium for a damn month. No reason for it. Hangover's gonna be a bitch.

Hopium.

That's the ideal word for it.

The market reacts like its the worlds last bitcoin, everytime it has the slightest reason to. Meanwhile, no new fiat is coming in and traders are just passing coins back and forth while money slowly leaves the exchanges.

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: p0peji on May 06, 2014, 03:02:52 AM

Great, that stupid POS news killed all the great downward momentum, now it is back to playing the waiting game... Cry

Kinda what I was thinking. The market's been high on Hopium for a damn month. No reason for it. Hangover's gonna be a bitch.

TERA

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Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 03:03:57 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on May 06, 2014, 02:59:51 AM

Dec 5th statement agrees wind..I just dunno how the PBOC sucks at enforcing it so badly.

I mean for the Chinese they have digested the good and the bad.. but I would agree they expect more bad...we'll see how Mother's Day ends up

The chinese businessman in the other thread explains it very well. Basically the PBOC is too big to typical involve itself with something as small as bitcoin (which shows how threatened they are by it). For this reason, because the PBOC communicates with only the top level bank officials, the top level bank officials feel its beneath their pay grade to deal with and it gets passed down and eventually lost, because the people authorized with the responsibility don't want to do it - its embarrassing for them. In it in fact the exact opposite of what many bitcoin enthusiasts imagine - bitcoin is actually TOO SMALL for the banks to want to deal with closing all the accounts.

Here's the article:

http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/28/chinese-banks-dont-know-how-to-act-appropriate-cause-bitcoin-is-too-tiny/

windjc

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Quote from: Davyd05 on May 06, 2014, 02:59:51 AM

Dec 5th statement agrees wind..I just dunno how the PBOC sucks at enforcing it so badly.

I mean for the Chinese they have digested the good and the bad.. but I would agree they expect more bad...we'll see how Mother's Day ends up

The chinese businessman in the other thread explains it very well. Basically the PBOC is too big to typical involve itself with something as small as bitcoin (which shows how threatened they are by it). For this reason, because the PBOC communicates with only the top level bank officials, the top level bank officials feel its beneath their pay grade to deal with and it gets passed down and eventually lost, because the people authorized with the responsibility don't want to do it - its embarrassing for them. It is in fact the exact opposite of what many bitcoin enthusiasts imagine - bitcoin is actually TOO SMALL for the banks to want to deal with closing all the accounts.

p0peji

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Great, that stupid POS news killed all the great downward momentum, now it is back to playing the waiting game... Cry

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 02:39:08 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 02:34:56 AM

I do not have a strong sense of the meaning of this last announcement, but if it means that the big exchanges are actively going to discourage BTC from being used as a Chinese gambling chip then it's most popular current use in China will cease to exist. The PBoC does not apparently want BTC to be used for transactions, so what justifications could the exchanges give the PBoC for operating at all?

I am surprised that the price is as high as it is. It's actually starting to diverge from the pattern of March. Does that mean the drop were were expecting won't happen, will happen later than expected, will be greater or less than expected? I don't know. All I know is that I'm not going to trade in an environment where I don't have an edge. That means I have to wait until this China crap blows over or until the price is so low I can price in my uncertainty. There's prolly opportunities for people with more understanding of China, but I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can sit in the pilot seat and teach myself how to fly in real time by watching youtube videos.

I wouldn't over analyze this if I were you. Let's just use our common sense. Our common sense says that if fiat can't get into exchanges, exchanges can't profit and they can't exist in China.

If HVT and leverage trading goes away, incentives for trading bitcoin go away.

I do not know how this PR changes anything. In fact, the exchanges (or at least OKCoin) said they were going to mum. But here they are putting out a release.

Common sense tells me the Chinese exchanges should be going out of business, which is why I can't understand why so many are acting as if they aren't. Gox operated for months or possibly even years while insolvent. How long can the Chinese exchanges operate? The only way to really know what is going on is to wait until they start going offline. Notices written in Chinese give someone else an edge, not me. I can only read between the lines in English.

Davyd05

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Dec 5th statement agrees wind..I just dunno how the PBOC sucks at enforcing it so badly.

I mean for the Chinese they have digested the good and the bad.. but I would agree they expect more bad...we'll see how Mother's Day ends up

windjc

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Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on May 06, 2014, 02:40:42 AM

@windjc, you have balls of steel. I would go fucking nuts if I had shorted 1200BTC.

kUDOS for you

Yeah, look. There is certainly risk involved. There is a chance the market might reverse for some crazy reason.

But its not like I am blindly making this trade. The market tells me that we have a 90%+ chance to go down.

The market is immature. Otherwise, it wouldn't be going up 150 CYN on a PR that suggests bad news.

The thing is these resistance points are putting up a little bit of a fight, because, if they cave in, then there is not much to catch us below.

I posted yesterday that 2660 was pivotal. As the "trend is your friend" I like my position. However, this PR brought us right back to 2660, where we sit at this moment.

My gut feeling is that this press release is an attempt to cover more bank closures coming this week.

And then, my final "ace in the hole" is that without fresh fiat none of this matters - we go down regardless.

p0peji

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Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on May 06, 2014, 02:40:42 AM

@windjc, you have balls of steel. I would go fucking nuts if I had shorted 1200BTC.

kUDOS for you

Shorting those 1200btc is a pretty sure thing though.

p0peji

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So now is the time for the market to go back to boring mode?

ShroomsKit_Disgrace

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Yeah! I hate ShroomsKit!

@windjc, you have balls of steel. I would go fucking nuts if I had shorted 1200BTC.

kUDOS for you

xulescu

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Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 02:32:48 AM

Quote from: xulescu on May 06, 2014, 02:29:58 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 02:28:29 AM

Quote from: xulescu on May 06, 2014, 02:26:11 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 02:24:32 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:22:39 AM

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

I am not truly short. I only have paper trades to hedge against a portion of my cold storage. Technically, I'm long.

When did you start trading and, if you bought 1 BTC when you started trading, how much would you have now?

I started trading btc in march 2013. I'm confused by the rest of the question.

Normalize your holding by your initial investment. What's your ROI? Did you buy once at the beginning or did you accumulate?

My strategy was to daytrade like a monkey on crack. Mean reversion strategy mostly. I often held 0 bitcoins. My ROI now in fiat terms is 40,000%. My first btc purchase was at $100.

Impressive. You must be 10 years older than in March. And 20 wiser at least.

y3804

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Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:34:23 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 02:32:03 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:30:52 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 02:27:15 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:22:39 AM

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

Wha? Yeah, like a $400k+ impact. But that is not going to happen. This market is going down.

I wish you all the best.

Please explain! What should we expect? Clearly stated in Caixin 2013 that PBOC doesn't want exchanges to touch their banking system. They only want people to trade Bitcoin using cash. There is no way to prevent money laundering, and PBOC knows that. The exchanges can attempt their best, but with fees + lack of leverage trading + no fiat bank transfers, how will they become profitable again?

windjc

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on May 06, 2014, 02:34:56 AM

I do not have a strong sense of the meaning of this last announcement, but if it means that the big exchanges are actively going to discourage BTC from being used as a Chinese gambling chip then it's most popular current use in China will cease to exist. The PBoC does not apparently want BTC to be used for transactions, so what justifications could the exchanges give the PBoC for operating at all?

I am surprised that the price is as high as it is. It's actually starting to diverge from the pattern of March. Does that mean the drop were were expecting won't happen, will happen later than expected, will be greater or less than expected? I don't know. All I know is that I'm not going to trade in an environment where I don't have an edge. That means I have to wait until this China crap blows over or until the price is so low I can price in my uncertainty. There's prolly opportunities for people with more understanding of China, but I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can sit in the pilot seat and teach myself how to fly in real time by watching youtube videos.

I wouldn't over analyze this if I were you. Let's just use our common sense. Our common sense says that if fiat can't get into exchanges, exchanges can't profit and they can't exist in China.

If HVT and leverage trading goes away, incentives for trading bitcoin go away.

I do not know how this PR changes anything. In fact, the exchanges (or at least OKCoin) said they were going to mum. But here they are putting out a release.

windjc

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Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:34:23 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 02:32:03 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:30:52 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 02:27:15 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:22:39 AM

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

Wha? Yeah, like a $400k+ impact. But that is not going to happen. This market is going down.

I wish you all the best.

Aha. No you don't. You wanna watch me burn. Wink

sonofliberty

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Market Integration Platform

Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 02:20:22 AM

I thought we had learned by now already to only listen to what Chinese authorities are saying and to completely ignore what the exchange owners are saying. They are bastards and everything they say is engineered for their own personal profit only.

Actually the chinese authorities are the bastards.

billyjoeallen

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Hide your women

I do not have a strong sense of the meaning of this last announcement, but if it means that the big exchanges are actively going to discourage BTC from being used as a Chinese gambling chip then it's most popular current use in China will cease to exist. The PBoC does not apparently want BTC to be used for transactions, so what justifications could the exchanges give the PBoC for operating at all?

I am surprised that the price is as high as it is. It's actually starting to diverge from the pattern of March. Does that mean the drop were were expecting won't happen, will happen later than expected, will be greater or less than expected? I don't know. All I know is that I'm not going to trade in an environment where I don't have an edge. That means I have to wait until this China crap blows over or until the price is so low I can price in my uncertainty. There's prolly opportunities for people with more understanding of China, but I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can sit in the pilot seat and teach myself how to fly in real time by watching youtube videos.

windjc

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Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 02:32:48 AM

Quote from: xulescu on May 06, 2014, 02:29:58 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 02:28:29 AM

Quote from: xulescu on May 06, 2014, 02:26:11 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 06, 2014, 02:24:32 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:22:39 AM

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

I am not truly short. I only have paper trades to hedge against a portion of my cold storage. Technically, I'm long.

When did you start trading and, if you bought 1 BTC when you started trading, how much would you have now?

I started trading btc in march 2013. I'm confused by the rest of the question.

Normalize your holding by your initial investment. What's your ROI? Did you buy once at the beginning or did you accumulate?

My strategy was to daytrade like a monkey on crack. Mean reversion strategy mostly. I often held 0 bitcoins. My ROI now in fiat terms is 40,000%. My first btc purchase was at $100.

And I just hope we have at least one more bubble phase so I can do what TERA did last time, instead of stare and point at my computer in awe at the huge green and red candles. Herp Derp.

mooncake

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Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 02:32:03 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:30:52 AM

Quote from: windjc on May 06, 2014, 02:27:15 AM

Quote from: mooncake on May 06, 2014, 02:22:39 AM

@TERA and windjc - How much have you shorted?

Around 1200 at this point.

Any big impact if they become liquidated?

Wha? Yeah, like a $400k+ impact. But that is not going to happen. This market is going down.

I wish you all the best.

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