Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27873. (Read 26707814 times)

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 04

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-05-04, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2600 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today (May/03) Huobi suddenly started trading heavily at 04:30 am local time (20:30 UTC).  Even though the weight of that hourly interval in the mean V_h is rather small (0.071), it resulted in a very large slumber activity ratio S = V_h/V_d (0.0169) and therefore a very low relevance weight W (0.003) for today's data point.

Still, with only two points since the last confirmed trend break, we must assume the straight line trend defined by them, namely A + B*(d-D0) where (d-D0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2744, B = -72.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R.  That factor was 6.17 CNY/USD today (May/03), but given today's very low weight W it seemed better to retain the value assumed yesterday, namely R = 6.09. It was 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05, 6.09 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-05-03, 00:29 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-05-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2744 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2672 CNY
Error: 72 CNY (~12 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 451 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 433 USD
Error: 18 USD
 
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All I'm saying is that it is unproductive for traders. The movements will be slow and there will be a low volume and volatility most of the time. We won't see explosive 400-800% up movements or 50-80% down movements like we have in the past year. It is a consolidation and slow recovery phase. I'm not giving any specific price targets.

Bitcoin is going to be huge. It's going to be the next bitcoin!

New technologies are coming, just watch ripple grow and explode...One bank is already using the ripple network. This is just a matter of month before ripple grows exponentially, soon everybody will trade crypto currencies on ripple network.

i think all off you are wrong, nobody can predict price of BTC. And i can bet on this. it can go to 5$ in a day and back to 400$, it can also go to 1000$ in a day and back to 400$, you will never know unless you are big fish in the pond and you have some real deal piece of information or some big ammount of money.

Calling the next 1-2 years is very bold and more than slightly ludicrous.

Best case scenario?   $2,000 in June?  $350,000 in 2016? 

It is always good to see the positive in things. 

Explanation

When it went down below $400 there was a lot of buying pressure and price quickly went up (and the move was backed up by volume). But meanwhile $450 has become the new "normal", so going below $400 again may not have the same affect (if it happens again). I think you wrote somewhere that we might go to $370. If the "fractal" repeats again then we can only hope that $370 holds. I personally think there is a good chance you are right, but it is not really based on anything other than what I feel is most likely.

Edit: English is not my first language 

I'll prefer drop to single digits :-) .. and then I'll buy thousands.

It all depends on how much time it takes to decline. Theoretically it could either drop immediately to $120 or go sideways for a year at $400.

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

This particular statement by Chromosoma was NOT about China.  S/he said that Bitstamp was going to be shut down... without providing hardly any substantiation(s) for such assertion...

Further, any subject matter can be used by FUD spreaders - even when they are combining true matters with untrue matters in order to build their case - such as claims that bitcoin is going to zero.  This particular latest assertion by Chromosoma did NOT involve China, yet.

I know, .... worst case scenario $350/BTC at the end of year ? (and $2,000 in 2016  :-) )

Next stop 150$?

I have been following the lines you posted for the past 5 months expecting a reversal there but now it is clear that is BROKEN by looking at the weekly chart and the declining volume.  Now where is the NEXT support?

Thanks man much easier to read

FUD = Statements that cause fear, uncertainty, and doubt

How it looks on log scale:


Same line on linear scale:


Same line on larger time scale:


:-) just interesting

Captain: what is FUD ?

I don't mean to scare people, but if the attacker gained root access the attack was not just a (failed) hacking attempt but really serious. I doubt that everything was encrypted on the server, so the attacker may have had time to gain valuable insight into their systems that could be used for future exploits. I think it is good that Localbitcoins are being open about it, and it sounds like they are on top of the situation. But if the attacker has had a peek into their code it could be a bit of a nightmare for their security team.