Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27965.

chessnut

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Activity: 924

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Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:46:20 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:36:25 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:31:13 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

yeah well what did I just say? your argument is a strawman. you dont like Risto, ok, but keep the argument valid or you look dumb.

No, the argument wasn't invalid. If you are even a little more then stupid, then you won't make predictions that aren't predictable. That will lose you any credibility that you might have. It's like the weather service would make a certain prediction, that at 12:36AM on 23.08.2019, it will start to rain in NYC. Predictions like that will make you look like a joke to those who know better, only to the dim-witted ones it may look like something wonderful.

actually the argument was invalid, alongside this beautiful red herring you have presented to me. Risto is not 100% certain that bitcoin is going to be adopted by the entire world. you set up the argument as a strawman - or where do you get your facts?

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 05:35:37 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 28, 2014, 04:06:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 02:52:00 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 02:34:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 02:31:43 AM

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not. Grin

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

This is a great way of expressing the situation.

Canonical summary of the betting situation achieved. Now, maybe let's move on.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 27, 2014, 06:59:49 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 27, 2014, 02:30:47 PM

Dat wall at 435 has scared everybody for like 3 hours already Shocked

A movie can scare people for three hours. Three hours is nothing. It's a speed bump on the road to $400. What is not scaring anybody now is fear of missing the train. That's what you should be concerned about.

One of the best comments in here during the last days, and completely ignored unfortunately.

Selling pressure is noticeably going down, even the bears will admit that much. What is however not happening is increasing buying pressure at those "super cheap prices per coin". Which, btw, the bulls /don't/ readily admit.

I wrote in here about 6 weeks ago (too lazy to dig up the post now... sue me) that we are in the process of "normalizing" 400. We're pretty much there now. Bitstamp is trading in the low 400s, and we're seeing what... 7k btc volume on the largest Western exchange, compared to the 100k+ volume on the earlier capitulation days, when those 400 coins were still a rarity.

What exactly the consequence is of normalizing 400 is not clear yet, imo. In the best case, it builds a solid base from which we can (slowly, at first) recover from the bear market. In a less favorable outcome, we will see normalization of 300 coins next.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 05:01:57 AM

Did you have to apologize to Rpietila, previously?

Actually, certainly, I am NOT of the belief that Rpietila is a dumb guy who thinks he is smart... but sometimes, he does seem to let his ego get in the way of his interactions, and he seems to believe that his recently found wealth gives him license to be pompous and pretentious and manipulative.

I have no problem with any body making predictions, and I appreciate some of Rpietila's predictive constructs. However, frequently the certainties and absolutism of math is NOT going to work very well when dealing with politics and human behavior. I believe he recognizes this; however, seems to get caught up in his own predictive marketing-type delusion(s).. and then tries to get his way when interacting with people (and the bet discussion exemplifies this wanting to get his way then attempting to reframe history in such a way that rationalizes what had happened)... which in sum seems to be Rpietila's failure/refusal to interact reasonably.. as Windjc mentioned.

I think that rpietila is dumb, at least in the general sense. Most of the people here think that he is smart, because he likes to do meaningless lists and likes to add loads of insignificant numbers to his post. To the inexperienced people, it looks like he is doing serious financial analysis. If you know even a little about finance, then you can see that it's entertaining gibberish at best. Or if you'll look at the outcomes of his predictions, or just his business practices, then you can also see how dumb he actually is.
Anyway, my point is, that you shouldn't feel bad for calling him dumb, because he is dumb. I personally also have doubts that he has a serious drug problem, because making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

I think that you are going much too far, and probably, I should NOT even be entertaining your post - b/c I have already have attempted to have genuine communications with you, without luck. I even saw interaction between you and Rpietila, where he likely entertained you too much too - by giving you the benefit of the doubt concerning whether you were attempting to engage in a genuine or meaningful (non-troll conversation).

People do dumb things, sometimes, and Rpietila is far from dumb - even though he has contradicted himself (at least regarding the bet issue) and rationalized his communications concerning the bet issue... but that does NOT make him dumb.. and also, he has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum through his various postings over the years (I have NOT read all of them, but several and they are genuinely helpful in framing various issues and providing experiential perspective).

p0peji

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:51:32 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on April 28, 2014, 05:37:08 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:31:13 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

Yeah, not like it would have been smart to use this money to invest in the crypto infrastructure (if you really believe that bitcoin will be the world currency). Like create and develop your own exchange, or maybe an payment service.
It's always smart to go into accommodation in Estonia. Especially when you have no experience or skills in the field. Very smart business decision, and not at all a typical "Hurray! Look! I have money!" project.

Indeed, buying a castle is the best way to lose the money you just earned.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on April 28, 2014, 05:37:08 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:31:13 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

Yeah, not like it would have been smart to use this money to invest in the crypto infrastructure (if you really believe that bitcoin will be the world currency). Like create and develop your own exchange, or maybe an payment service.
It's always smart to go into accommodation in Estonia. Especially when you have no experience or skills in the field. Very smart business decision, and not at all a typical "Hurray! Look! I have money!" project.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

Merit: 1000

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:36:25 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:31:13 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

yeah well what did I just say? your argument is a strawman. you dont like Risto, ok, but keep the argument valid or you look dumb.

No, the argument wasn't invalid. If you are even a little more then stupid, then you won't make predictions that aren't predictable. That will lose you any credibility that you might have. It's like the weather service would make a certain prediction, that at 12:36AM on 23.08.2019, it will start to rain in NYC. Predictions like that will make you look like a joke to those who know better, only to the dim-witted ones it may look like something wonderful.

ShroomsKit_Disgrace

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

Yeah! I hate ShroomsKit!

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:31:13 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:31:13 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

yeah well what did I just say? your argument is a strawman. you dont like Risto, ok, but keep the argument valid or you look dumb.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: octaft on April 28, 2014, 04:06:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 02:52:00 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 02:34:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 02:31:43 AM

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not. Grin

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

This is a great way of expressing the situation.

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 05:05:51 AM

Quote from: octaft on April 28, 2014, 04:06:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 02:52:00 AM

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Which part of the Call to Bet was difficult to understand? Grin

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 05:14:30 AM

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Perhaps you fit in the description in my Lamentation... Cheesy

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 02:07:18 AM

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it.

Have you noticed that not a single person with high standing has criticized me? It is the same trolls over and over, twisting simple and clear words, or teens with fingers hard-wired to bypass the brain.

There you go with more of your ad hominem attacks and denials. I certainly am NO troll, and I think that your criticism is misplaced with me and with almost all of the others regarding this point.

Likely, you need to take responsibility for your ambiguous words, your lack of clarity in bet terms and your failure to work with anyone to finalize a meaningful and reasonable bet... which probably shows that you just were NOT committed to your assertion... and you misspoke and internally contradicted yourself, then your pride got in the way so that you would NOT back out.

MoreFun

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

There is a lot of newcomers that are bears, jealous and angry about anyone being optimistic and those holding nice amount of BTC. This is not good. Not sure if it is not good for them or also for community.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

Merit: 1000

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 05:27:49 AM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 28, 2014, 05:21:58 AM

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

Merit: 1000

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 28, 2014, 05:01:57 AM

Did you have to apologize to Rpietila, previously?

Actually, certainly, I am NOT of the belief that Rpietila is a dumb guy who thinks he is smart... but sometimes, he does seem to let his ego get in the way of his interactions, and he seems to believe that his recently found wealth gives him license to be pompous and pretentious and manipulative.

I have no problem with any body making predictions, and I appreciate some of Rpietila's predictive constructs. However, frequently the certainties and absolutism of math is NOT going to work very well when dealing with politics and human behavior. I believe he recognizes this; however, seems to get caught up in his own predictive marketing-type delusion(s).. and then tries to get his way when interacting with people (and the bet discussion exemplifies this wanting to get his way then attempting to reframe history in such a way that rationalizes what had happened)... which in sum seems to be Rpietila's failure/refusal to interact reasonably.. as Windjc mentioned.

I think that rpietila is dumb, at least in the general sense. Most of the people here think that he is smart, because he likes to do meaningless lists and likes to add loads of insignificant numbers to his post. To the inexperienced people, it looks like he is doing serious financial analysis. If you know even a little about finance, then you can see that it's entertaining gibberish at best. Or if you'll look at the outcomes of his predictions, or just his business practices, then you can also see how dumb he actually is.
Anyway, my point is, that you shouldn't feel bad for calling him dumb, because he is dumb. I personally also have doubts that he has a serious drug problem, because making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

MoreFun

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1003

WePower.red

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 28, 2014, 05:01:30 AM

Quote from: lemonte on April 28, 2014, 04:57:02 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 28, 2014, 04:51:41 AM

Quote from: flynn on April 28, 2014, 04:47:37 AM

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

10th actually. So a week on Saturday. Then we have to wait another week for PBOC to say they still aren't happy.

It will be the same shit as what happened many times already.

But the dumps and falls are smaller and smaller every time. Also there is also less and less weak hands. With "article-rumours" probably there won't be large decrease in price at once, only big confirmed china ban news can bring us much down as flash crash.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: octaft on April 28, 2014, 04:06:39 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 02:52:00 AM

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Which part of the Call to Bet was difficult to understand? Grin

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 05:14:30 AM

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Perhaps you fit in the description in my Lamentation... Cheesy

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 02:07:18 AM

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it.

Have you noticed that not a single person with high standing has criticized me? It is the same trolls over and over, twisting simple and clear words, or teens with fingers hard-wired to bypass the brain.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: mmitech on April 28, 2014, 02:45:35 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit_Disgrace on April 28, 2014, 02:44:50 AM

I really hope @mmitech won't have to apologize for the second time with @rpietila, that will be just hilarious. Cheesy

hell no, fuck him...

Did you have to apologize to Rpietila, previously?

Actually, certainly, I am NOT of the belief that Rpietila is a dumb guy who thinks he is smart... but sometimes, he does seem to let his ego get in the way of his interactions, and he seems to believe that his recently found wealth gives him license to be pompous and pretentious and manipulative.

I have no problem with any body making predictions, and I appreciate some of Rpietila's predictive constructs. However, frequently the certainties and absolutism of math is NOT going to work very well when dealing with politics and human behavior. I believe he recognizes this; however, seems to get caught up in his own predictive marketing-type delusion(s).. and then tries to get his way when interacting with people (and the bet discussion exemplifies this wanting to get his way then attempting to reframe history in such a way that rationalizes what had happened)... which in sum seems to be Rpietila's failure/refusal to interact reasonably.. as Windjc mentioned.

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: lemonte on April 28, 2014, 04:57:02 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on April 28, 2014, 04:51:41 AM

Quote from: flynn on April 28, 2014, 04:47:37 AM

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

10th actually. So a week on Saturday. Then we have to wait another week for PBOC to say they still aren't happy.

It will be the same shit as what happened many times already.

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

threecats

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

Huobi has shown it can sleepwalk upwards for hours. Plus those pumpers are out there somewhere. Dangerous place to short imo.

lemonte

hero member

Activity: 624

Merit: 502

Quote from: roslinpl on April 28, 2014, 04:51:41 AM

Quote from: flynn on April 28, 2014, 04:47:37 AM

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.

To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month!

10th actually. So a week on Saturday. Then we have to wait another week for PBOC to say they still aren't happy.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27965. (Read 26709504 times)