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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27980. (Read 26709954 times)

legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
From OKCoin, via http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/243j3p/how_are_huobi_okcoin_deposit_funding_currently/

Quote
As not to affect the normal market prices, for the time being, revisions to our site’s recharging methods will not be published again.

And  Huobi apparently has been offline since 01:00 am local time, now it is Monday 07:00 am.

EDIT: some claim that Huobi's catatonia it is a Bitcoinwisdom bug.

OKCoin, BTCChina, CHBTC, all fiat deposits halted. Who knows if the withdrawal part is true, but no capital input is definitely bad
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Man $435 is not looking good...

Wow.. the price has NOT quite hit $435, yet. 

Maybe I am going to jinx the situation; however, the closest that it has come so far (on stamp) is $438.88... and that was a flash.  Though I think $439 was sustained over several spread out minutes.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea?  What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?



breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position

 http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_22rulestrading.htm

The 22 Rules of Trading

We give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.......................................

.............

I have NO problem with those 22 rules - though I would call them tips or best practices (as is implied from "rule 22").  Accordingly, thank you for sharing them.  NONETHELESS, you have NO CLUE about whether or the extent to which they may apply to my particular situation.  You can sit atop your perch and Monday morning quarter-back all that you like... but that does NOT really enlighten anyone in any kind of meaningful way   - even though I repeat that I do appreciate that you provided the general parameters from which you were speaking and that is the "Dennis Gartman" guidelines.




hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
From OKCoin, via http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/243j3p/how_are_huobi_okcoin_deposit_funding_currently/

Quote
As not to affect the normal market prices, for the time being, revisions to our site’s recharging methods will not be published again.

And  Huobi apparently has been offline since 01:00 am local time, now it is Monday 07:00 am.

EDIT: some claim that Huobi's catatonia it is a Bitcoinwisdom bug.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008

We're still pretty early into the adoption (and usage), and it's too early to say with certainty if we can use that data unfiltered to estimate the user base (I know, I know, "popular addresses excluded").


It doesn't actually matter.  

What my model does is defines two abstract unmeasurable quantities called the "generalized user base," N and the "value of bitcoin", V.  I then define that these two variables satisfy the Metcalfe Model, V ~ N2.

Everything is exact so far and I haven't made any assumptions.  Then I ask: "is this model useful?"  

To answer this question, I look for observable proxies for both N and V that are measurable.   Reasonable proxies for N include "unique address used per day" and "transactions per day excluding popular addresses," but one could also consider subscribers at r/bitcoin or users at bitcointalk.com.  In fact the more proxies for N that show self-consistency, the stronger my model becomes.  A reasonable proxy for V is the market cap of bitcoin.  

It has already been shown the the model is useful, and that it is in fact reasonable to infer that bitcoin's value grows as the square of its generalized user base.  Realizing that I am using the terms "bitcoins value" and "generalized user base" in a technical way, the task moving forward in time is to find ways to estimate N that simultaneously support the Metcalfe model without stretching the common-sense meanings of the words "value" or "user base."  If we have to stretch common-sense too far, then the model will no longer be useful.  


This is how we make progress in theoretical physics.  A good example is Newton's Second Law: f = m a.  A lot people think that this is some discovery about a "fundamental law of the universe," but it is actually just a definition.  The net force acting on an object is defined by humans to be equal to the product of the object's mass and acceleration.  You could equally create another "law" that says f2 = m v, where v is velocity and f2 is "force 2.0."  Both are correct by definition, but only one is useful.  If you calculate the "force 2.0" of gravity, you'll get a complex mess; whereas the "force" of gravity is an elegant equation.

Does the "we" mean you are a theoretical physicist?  BTC and B-mode
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Well done China. We tried to go up for several weeks. Every time there was a bull run it got killed by China FUD. after many tries people have given up and we returned to the bear market we were in for many months already.
Again the media will be all over it. Bitcoin crashed, Bitcoin is broke, Bitcoin is a joke.
Again potential investors will move on. This is just so fucking bad. This crash is really the last thing Bitcoin could use at this point.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
2658 on Huobi ($425). Bitcoinwisdom not updating (Still 2750)! Someone please share a fix!

Never had any problems, using Opera. Clear cookies maybe?
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
2658 on Huobi ($425). Bitcoinwisdom not updating (Still 2750)! Someone please share a fix!
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea?  What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?



breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position


WTF are you talking about? 

First:  Do you happen to know my reasons for getting into BTC?  my risk profile, my investment allocation(s), my intended timeline and intended strategy(ies), my contemplations about potential adjustment(s) to my investment strategies, my diversification of assets, or any other potentially relevant factor(s)? 

Second:  you still have NOT disclosed anything about your own investment into BTC, or any other investments or lack thereof.

Third:  It is really easy for you to judge another persons strategy retrospectively, without knowing too much about the situation, while NOT providing any information about your own investment portfolio, if any?

Fourth:  What is your purpose in suggesting that I made some kind of bad judgement or a bad investment?

I'm all ears (and eyes) awaiting and looking forward to some of your disclosures about your investment(s).  I doubt that i will receive anything meaningful from you.... b/c it appears as if you merely are striving to provide succinct summary comments that are devoid of any meaningful context.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Man $435 is not looking good...
legendary
Activity: 1870
Merit: 1023


Not that every person here uses the almighty USD, here is a calculator to show how much we/you are losing each year.

http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm

Edit:
$10.00 in 1914 had the same buying power as $233.05 in 2014.
Annual inflation over this period was 3.20%.

Grossly underestimating inflation.  Clearly hedonically adjusted numbers.  Try a weighted basket of wheat, oil and steel some time.

The inflation index both over-estimates and under-estimates. It misses the deflationary impact of technology - sometimes by a factor of a thousand.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea?  What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?



breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position

Averaging down is how value investors establish positions. If you have a rule against averaging down ... ..... erm ... wow? :|
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Did anything ever happen with the bet between rpietila and windjc???

2nd base but no penetration

Yeah, right>>>> Smiley   

I would question whether they even got to 1st base, the way that they were dicking around.   Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
Small piece of advice: Pick a longer time frame than 3 seconds.
Good advice begs good advice in return: if you intend to invest in Bitcoin, be sure to do that before October 2013.


Or today
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Small piece of advice: Pick a longer time frame than 3 seconds.
Good advice begs good advice in return: if you intend to invest in Bitcoin, be sure to do that before October 2013.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1010
he who has the gold makes the rules
I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  Grin

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now Tongue

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea?  What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?



breaking rule #1: buying into a losing position

 http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_22rulestrading.htm

The 22 Rules of Trading

We give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.

Every day, Dennis Gartman gets up at bout 2:30 AM and writes an information packed 4 page newsletter on the world markets, oil, currencies, commodities political happenings and much more. He is read by the major trading houses and traders all over the world, as they stumble bleary eyed into work, grabbing the Gartman Report to find out what happened as they slept and to get insight as to what the issues of the day will be, and suggestions on how to trade. Dennis puts his trades on public display and talks you through his logic. It is a most remarkable work, and I find it a key part of my struggle in trying to keep up with what is going on. I am always amazed when on the occasions I find myself in the office at an early hour to find Dennis' letter hit my inbox about 5:00 AM. His travel schedule makes mine look tame, and from wherever in the world he finds himself, he writes and sends his letter. And he still maintains a single digit handicap on the golf course.

On the Friday after Thanksgiving, he publishes his "Rules of Trading," adding to them as wisdom increases. Here is today's list:

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Looks like the start of another downward trend on Stamp.
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