Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28059. (Read 26710358 times)

Looks like that 12h MacD does not fuck around, i wonder if 450 will hold

This is actually a very funny post.

But as bearish as Ive sounded lately, I am not convinced we are going to market too many more of that list.

I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction"  I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist.

It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight.

Beartrap coming up

I think you came out of cryo around the wrong time Adam

get your tickets now

train leaving soon



If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry. -Satoshi

Explanation

Depends, I'd say. In July 2013 we saw an almost immediate recovery of more than 50% up from the final capitulation bottom.

Then we lost a lot of that in the following week(s), especially through one large dump on July 18.

What made the reversal last however (imo) was how price found support across some of the levels. It went quite low, but touched the 61% retracement once. Then recovered really beautifully. 20 days after the first post capitulation swing up, we had a new high.

That's the situation I'm (more or less) looking for to consider we've really left the bear market of 2014 behind.

This makes a lot of sense. The 'bottoms' that people have called so far have seemed far too bouncy for me. I don't know a great deal about TA and the way markets move, but shouldn't a capitulation be a bit more depressingly flat, rather than recovering 30% in a matter of hours/days?

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

http://bitcoinsounds.0x3d.lu/

Improved version now online!

The train is rocketing up right now.

The train has slowed down but it is still going up.

We're going up after this brief consolidation.

We're going up after a long consolidation.

We're going up after this small dip.

We're going up after a large dip.

Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.

It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.

It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.

I don't follow...

The demand would go up very little if people were buying BTC for the purpose of spending them right away.  Each transaction of this type would decrease the circulating bitcoin supply (CBS) for a short time but that would be reveresed when the merchant or payment processor converts the BTC back to fiat. Therefore, the persistent decrease of the CBS from these uses would be proportional to the (total daily BTC volume V1 in these transactions) x (time T that each of those BTC stays off the system).  As long as transaction volume remains constant, this term will not change the CBS.

However, some of the bitcoin purchases are being made by people who were hoarding BTC and started spending some of them.  Assuming the coins are converted to fiat by selling on market, each of those transactions increases the CBS permanently by the amount transacted.  So these transactions keep increasing the CBS as time passes.  

I would guess that most of BitPay's 100 M$/year volume in 2013 is due to the second type of transaction, because buying bitcoins just for e-payment does not seem to be sufficiently attractive to people who do not own bitcoins already.  If we assume a 50-50 split, and off-market time T of 3 days then perhaps 0.5 M$ worth of bitcoins were taken out of the CBS temporarily by type 1 transactions, and 50 M$ worth of coins were permanently added to the CBS by type 2 transactions last year through BitPay. 

EDIT: clarified "last year"

EDIT2: Clarified "through BitPay". The same analysis should apply for commercial payments that do not use BitPay. Is there an estimate of this volume?

The money velocity, talked about in econometrics, is not a useful measure. All transactions are not alike, and financial transactions are taken out. It is supposed to mean transactions where real goods are exchanged. Therefore measuring the velocity has the same problems as GDP and various price indexes. In short, it is meaningful only in the bizarre world of Krugman (which means it is not meaningful at all).

The value of bitcoin, all kinds of money, is the demand to hold. Every time you sell, you depress the value, and any time you buy, you raise the value.

This is the same for any trade. When you buy a hamburger, you raise the value of hamburgers and depress the value of money. Of course there is someone on the other side of each trade.

Explanation

Kind of. Because every day I get this kind of posts from people whom I have little or (generally) no prior interaction with. (date=today):

My employers?   I have been unemployed for too long, and it's getting old. I wasn't kidding with offering my help. I don't have much practical experience with cults, but I find the subject extremely fascinating. I think that cult leadership has some really advanced management techniques, that traditional psychology and the modern school of management aren't able to comprehend.

We could continue our discussion, and see how it's going around and around in circles, without actually getting anywhere... or... you could just hire me and let me help you conquer the world.

I remember you saying a while ago you wouldn't post much here (this forum, that is) anymore.

Guess the overwhelming demand of your loyal fans kept you here, huh?

 

This thread is a total troll dump, but still has its moments.

I don't know much, I can only guess.

Deposits via the exchange's bank account appear to have been closed in all exchanges.  Huobi's recharge cards were available for a long time before the latest tightening and probably have limits on amount per day and such. OKCoin's broker/recharge-code system seems to be cumbersome, like BTC-China's voucher system that apparently was never popular.  So, obviously, moving money into the exchanges has become more difficult now.

On the other hand, withdrawing money via bank transfers seems to be unaffected, so moving money out is as easy as before.

My explanation for the general decline since February is that the Chinese speculators are gradually cashing out and leaving, and no new investors are coming in.  (Why would anyone be tempted to invest in an item that he cannot use for anything but speculation, and whose price has been generally falling for almost 5 months?)