(The Milnesium tardigradum is a bear, but a rather small one)
[ Edited from a Wikimedia Commons image ]
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28074. (Read 26710157 times)
April 21, 2014, 07:24:22 PM
Missing a pic of a bear?
(The Milnesium tardigradum is a bear, but a rather small one)
(The Milnesium tardigradum is a bear, but a rather small one)
April 21, 2014, 07:22:47 PM
I'm wondering why the $15-$18 price differential between Stamp and BTC-e. I am guessing the Russians have a better understanding of the China situation than The West has.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
BTCe is a ghetto 'sideline/secondary option' exchange & the prices reflect it (their website's GUI looks pretty uninviting as well =/) - guess people dump harder on there to be on the safe side from near-anonymous owners.
Folks here'd do well to be aware that these manipulators have enough resources & income to keep this rodeo going on for months if not years.. One doesn't handle this intelligently by 'waiting it out' & relying on 'hope' ; Keeping at least a small portion of your stash into a trading acct to buy around high 300's & 200's, and sell around 500's & 600's, is how one keeps making some very respectable, safe profit month after month, increasing total crypto net worth over time while using this activity churn as a psychological bulwark to responsibly handling the loooong potential wait before next ATH w/o depression or panic.
Suggesting people should trade during this China thing is the worst advise you can give. Out of 10 people who take your advise at least 8 will lose their money.
Selling @ relative highs & buying back in at absolute lows (200-300's) every few months or so doesn't even register as 'trading' to be honest. The majority of this thread's non-permahodlers are doing just that as we speak.
I think that there is a variety of types of participants in this thread... however, many of the ones who label themselves as NON-daytraders have been disinclined to sell below $600 or so ...
I think the idea is to buy when the price is going down and to sell when the prices is going up.. however, NONE of us can really predict when the price is going down or up.. so there is a tendency to error on the side of HODL.. and also to exercise the buying and the selling at the extremes.. to the extent that can be measured.... so if we are of the belief that there is a long term trendline that is going up, then attempt to buy below the trendline and to sell above the trendline. Sure there are other variations of that kind of a practice, yet I believe that mistakes can be made when miscalculating the trendline b/c there are quite a few varying opinions about where that trendline is, exactly.. or the short-term allure to make a few bucks, if we feel pretty confident that either news or FUD is going to cause a predictable and measureable price movement.
April 21, 2014, 07:19:08 PM
3d macd cross no panic tho 
thats in an hr or 2
thats in an hr or 2 April 21, 2014, 07:08:57 PM
If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.
You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.
Are you calling Bitcoin paper? You want him to sell his BTC for paper U.S. dollars to avoid his profit being paper?
Are you serious?
This is a basic concept and a basic expression to cash out in order to realize the payoff of the investment. The expression of paper profit or paper loss for that matter, is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.
This concept loses its meaning in forex. The IRS may disagree, but BTC looks more like a currency than a commodity. It is directly tradable for goods and services. It need not ever be exchanged for a fiat currency.
Long term holders can choose to use BTC as their base currency. If they feel another currency looks bullish against BTC, they can buy that and then sell back to BTC when they want to lock in profits.
April 21, 2014, 07:06:02 PM
is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.
Bitcoin *IS* cash. 
April 21, 2014, 07:00:20 PM
April 21, 2014, 06:54:51 PM
I'm wondering why the $15-$18 price differential between Stamp and BTC-e. I am guessing the Russians have a better understanding of the China situation than The West has.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
BTCe is a ghetto 'sideline/secondary option' exchange & the prices reflect it (their website's GUI looks pretty uninviting as well =/) - guess people dump harder on there to be on the safe side from near-anonymous owners.
Folks here'd do well to be aware that these manipulators have enough resources & income to keep this rodeo going on for months if not years.. One doesn't handle this intelligently by 'waiting it out' & relying on 'hope' ; Keeping at least a small portion of your stash into a trading acct to buy around high 300's & 200's, and sell around 500's & 600's, is how one keeps making some very respectable, safe profit month after month, increasing total crypto net worth over time while using this activity churn as a psychological bulwark to responsibly handling the loooong potential wait before next ATH w/o depression or panic.
Suggesting people should trade during this China thing is the worst advise you can give. Out of 10 people who take your advise at least 8 will lose their money.
Selling @ relative highs & buying back in at absolute lows (200-300's) every few months or so doesn't even register as 'trading' to be honest. The majority of this thread's non-permahodlers are doing just that as we speak.
And you don't need to have insider info on what the whales will do specifically, to know that buying non-leveraged @ 20%+ (aka ~$100) below current price has 98%+ chance of not ever causing you to have reason to panic, realize a loss or have to weather that specific trade being in the 'red'/underwater for any longer than several weeks in the worst scenario.
April 21, 2014, 06:53:29 PM
If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.
You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.
Are you calling Bitcoin paper? You want him to sell his BTC for paper U.S. dollars to avoid his profit being paper?
Are you serious?
This is a basic concept and a basic expression to cash out in order to realize the payoff of the investment. The expression of paper profit or paper loss for that matter, is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.
April 21, 2014, 06:29:10 PM
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 22
Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3091 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD
Plot legend
Today's data point was so-so, (S = 0.0051 W = 0.598) but almost exactly aligned with the last two points. Therefore it seems best to assume a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points. Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3144.19 and B = -17.62.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.26 CNY/USD. It was 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last three Slumber Times.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-20, 23:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-04-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)
Another lucky break:
Huobi's predicted price: 3097 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3110 CNY
Error: 13 CNY (~2 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 496 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 496 USD
Error: 0 USD
NOTE: "There is a 70% probability of tomorrow." (actual weatherman quote. 1988)
Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3091 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD
Plot legend
Today's data point was so-so, (S = 0.0051 W = 0.598) but almost exactly aligned with the last two points. Therefore it seems best to assume a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points. Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3144.19 and B = -17.62.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.26 CNY/USD. It was 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last three Slumber Times.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-20, 23:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-04-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)
Another lucky break:
Huobi's predicted price: 3097 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3110 CNY
Error: 13 CNY (~2 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 496 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 496 USD
Error: 0 USD
NOTE: "There is a 70% probability of tomorrow." (actual weatherman quote. 1988)
April 21, 2014, 06:28:51 PM
Market will go up before the china BS is over. Might have begun, might begin soon. If you are waiting for it to be over, you will miss the train. the market is forward looking.
April 21, 2014, 06:24:45 PM
If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.
You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.
Are you calling Bitcoin paper? You want him to sell his BTC for paper U.S. dollars to avoid his profit being paper?
April 21, 2014, 06:19:53 PM
If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.
You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.
April 21, 2014, 06:03:16 PM
Tuesday is going to tell us a lot. That would be the time for new fiat to have arrived. So if there is actually new fiat that is going to leads into a bull market, and not just day traders on margin, we will get a chance to see it in action.
If we stall out again tomorrow or go down, then I'll be putting buy orders in around 420-440.
If we stall out again tomorrow or go down, then I'll be putting buy orders in around 420-440.
April 21, 2014, 06:02:08 PM
I'm wondering why the $15-$18 price differential between Stamp and BTC-e. I am guessing the Russians have a better understanding of the China situation than The West has.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
BTCe is a ghetto 'sideline/secondary option' exchange & the prices reflect it (their website's GUI looks pretty uninviting as well =/) - guess people dump harder on there to be on the safe side from near-anonymous owners.
Folks here'd do well to be aware that these manipulators have enough resources & income to keep this rodeo going on for months if not years.. One doesn't handle this intelligently by 'waiting it out' & relying on 'hope' ; Keeping at least a small portion of your stash into a trading acct to buy around high 300's & 200's, and sell around 500's & 600's, is how one keeps making some very respectable, safe profit month after month, increasing total crypto net worth over time while using this activity churn as a psychological bulwark to responsibly handling the loooong potential wait before next ATH w/o depression or panic.
Suggesting people should trade during this China thing is the worst advise you can give. Out of 10 people who take your advise at least 8 will lose their money.
It might be possible to guess what the manipulators are doing and piggy-back on their manipulation, but it would be dangerous.
April 21, 2014, 06:00:19 PM
April 21, 2014, 05:23:30 PM
If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.
April 21, 2014, 05:17:34 PM
we have a little bit of buying to do today to get us back to the $500 levels..
Why bother. Someone will dump to make sure we go down again. It happened like 5 times now. You'd be crazy to buy at this point.
Crazy to buy at $500? Many people bought higher than this. I bought some higher than this. I think it is crazy not to buy when considering where Bitcoin will be later this year or even this month! Also, there have been times where it seems like Bitcoin is going nowhere then shoots up to a new ATH within just a few weeks.
Calm down. I'm talking about this specific moment. As soon as we go up either someone starts dumping or Chinese fud appears. I would wait this out if i was a trader or i guess a long term buyer. We can easily go to 450 or lower again. If we break 520ish without someone stopping it i'd say it's buying time.
The current situation is pure manipulation by a small group of people if you'd ask me.
Sorry. I guess I am just getting tired of the bearishness.
I guess if someone wants to save a few bucks perhaps they can wait to buy but really now is a great time to buy in general. I think it could shoot up at any point. Bitcoin is known to do that.I too think it will go up after this China bs is over.
I bought a decent amount when it was much, much lower than current prices...but I also bought a fairly large amount when it was higher. If I dollar cost averaged my entire holdings, I would probably be a little in the red based on current prices. Believe it or not, it is LTC that is keeping me profitable at the moment
By trading ltc you mean?
April 21, 2014, 05:15:33 PM
we have a little bit of buying to do today to get us back to the $500 levels..
Why bother. Someone will dump to make sure we go down again. It happened like 5 times now. You'd be crazy to buy at this point.
Crazy to buy at $500? Many people bought higher than this. I bought some higher than this. I think it is crazy not to buy when considering where Bitcoin will be later this year or even this month! Also, there have been times where it seems like Bitcoin is going nowhere then shoots up to a new ATH within just a few weeks.
Calm down. I'm talking about this specific moment. As soon as we go up either someone starts dumping or Chinese fud appears. I would wait this out if i was a trader or i guess a long term buyer. We can easily go to 450 or lower again. If we break 520ish without someone stopping it i'd say it's buying time.
The current situation is pure manipulation by a small group of people if you'd ask me.
Sorry. I guess I am just getting tired of the bearishness.
I guess if someone wants to save a few bucks perhaps they can wait to buy but really now is a great time to buy in general. I think it could shoot up at any point. Bitcoin is known to do that.I too think it will go up after this China bs is over.
I bought a decent amount when it was much, much lower than current prices...but I also bought a fairly large amount when it was higher. If I dollar cost averaged my entire holdings, I would probably be a little in the red based on current prices. Believe it or not, it is LTC that is keeping me profitable at the moment
April 21, 2014, 05:13:18 PM
Actually some people pay tax on their gains on BTC , interesting 
Sometimes is indeed nice to live in a messed up country , just like mine. (And still be part of the EU).
Bulgaria?Sometimes is indeed nice to live in a messed up country , just like mine. (And still be part of the EU).
Romania
. But you were very close.The two additions to the EU I could not for the light of me comprehend
From my point of view , the people who allowed .ro to join the EU were pretty stupid , with a lot of bone in their heads.
But , it's too late for that
.Still if you want a heaven for bitcoin taxation and you can live with the dogs,holes,whores, and so on ..romania is for you
Thanks for the information but what's tax haven about it? According to http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Services/Tax/The-worldwide-personal-tax-guide---XMLQS?preview&XmlUrl=/ec1mages/taxguides/TGE-2013/TGE-RO.xml there is a 16% capital gains tax.
Because in real life nobody is paying anything.
I've been working for freelance and GAF for years , I've done a lot of affiliate programs and I sold a few bitcoins also but I haven't payed a single penny.
And so did a lot of my friends who were involved in website promotions and affiliate programs (adbrite adwords etc).
And to this date nobody bothered to look into this.
Keep your bank transactions low , don't exceed 1000$/time or 10000$ a year with the same bank and nobody will check it out.
And if you dare to pay... you're in a world of pain as a lot of the guys at the tax office don't have a clue about those kind of earnings.
Two years ago i tried to get 'legal" and to declare all my income. I spent days after days waiting in queues sometimes for hours and speaking with idiots who had no clue until.. I go fed up with it.
I can't even imagine going there are asking about taxation on BTC , they will probably throw me out thinking i'm joking
And of course, an idiot is all it takes to ruin a country's image. Congratulations Niothor, you are alot better than all the whores and the dogs and the holes (btw, where the F. do you live? I have never been able to find all three 'cataclysms' together) at discrediting Romania. It's always the same, the bad deeds of one overwrite the good of many. Please go back to troll the Bitleu forum or continue washing some spanish or italian toilet, Romania is obviously too classy for you.
April 21, 2014, 05:12:24 PM
I'm wondering why the $15-$18 price differential between Stamp and BTC-e. I am guessing the Russians have a better understanding of the China situation than The West has.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.
BTCe is a ghetto 'sideline/secondary option' exchange & the prices reflect it (their website's GUI looks pretty uninviting as well =/) - guess people dump harder on there to be on the safe side from near-anonymous owners.
Folks here'd do well to be aware that these manipulators have enough resources & income to keep this rodeo going on for months if not years.. One doesn't handle this intelligently by 'waiting it out' & relying on 'hope' ; Keeping at least a small portion of your stash into a trading acct to buy around high 300's & 200's, and sell around 500's & 600's, is how one keeps making some very respectable, safe profit month after month, increasing total crypto net worth over time while using this activity churn as a psychological bulwark to responsibly handling the loooong potential wait before next ATH w/o depression or panic.
Suggesting people should trade during this China thing is the worst advise you can give. Out of 10 people who take your advise at least 8 will lose their money.
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