It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.
It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article. Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?
It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.
It is NOT going to last forever, is it? And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)
The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.
I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over.
The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.
I do appreciate your various technical explanations; however, even you seem to contradict yourself from time to time when, for example, last week you were suggesting that you thought that we may be coming out of this. Additionally, your extension of the last line could actually turn into a "w" rather than a continued downtrend - especially b/c it seems that there has been considerable difficulties in getting the price to go down further in the last week or so. These bear whales are NOT going to want to wait forever to attempt to push the price down further, if that is what they want to do. They need to act soon while they have the potential momentum - otherwise they are going to lose the downward momentum when buyers start to flood into the space out of concern that they do NOT want to miss the upward train.
I was bullish last week when I saw how the trend had appeared to be weakened and running out of steam. However, that did not mean that we were immediately breaking past $540 into higher levels without another high volume retest of lower levels. The key is volume.
There needs to be a big red candle with a lot of volume which does not affect the new upward trend - and price continues to climb back up all the way to where the candle originated. So far this has not happened. I had high hopes of it happening last week but it hasn't so, the downtrend is back on until otherwise proven broken.
I don't think there is one bear in control of all of this or someone who has a malicious intent to bring the price down. Rather it is a collection of competing and opposing forces. It is a market - and right now one side is stronger than the other.
I actually think this scenario is less and less likely. Mainly because there are so many fewer coins being traded on exchanges now that Gox is gone and China has severe restrictions. Everyone is holding or, if they are not, then they are doing transactions off exchange.
I am not sure anymore that there is enough fiat and coins on the exchanges for there to be a massive 200K volume day. Not unless the price drops to 270 or below and even then, I don't know how much can really be traded in one day anymore.
The formula should probably be more about the % of coins on exchanges being traded in a potential capitulation day. Of course there is no way to measure that % or cooresponding # to keep an eye out for.
If people don't sell, eventually fiat will arrive. But it could be 6+ months from now. Thats a long time for people not to sell.
