Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28379.

shmadz

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Quote from: solex on April 07, 2014, 10:42:13 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 08:43:14 PM

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

This is my understanding as well. The banks may not partake in anything bitcoin. Payment processors are banned from doing business with any bitcoin exchange.

-but- I do not see any problems with banks wiring yuan to companies operating exchanges, yet.

My suspicion is that all the Chinese gov't really wants is to be able to watch and control the flow of their money, through the banks, and they're still loading up on gold as well.

My feeling is that they really don't understand what bitcoin means just yet, they are still focused on the currency wars going on in the "real world".

Quote from: billyjoeallen

I'm not so sure. The rumor is that bank deposits will be stopped also. I'm selling the bad rumor and buying the bad news. Until there is clarity one way or another, the uncertainty will weigh on the market.

If bank deposits stop, it will drive it completely underground. I think they prefer to keep a watchful eye.

ChartBuddy

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billyjoeallen

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Quote from: solex on April 07, 2014, 10:42:13 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 08:43:14 PM

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

I'm not so sure. The rumor is that bank deposits will be stopped also. I'm selling the bad rumor and buying the bad news. Until there is clarity one way or another, the uncertainty will weigh on the market.

solex

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 08:43:14 PM

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

They can still buy using bank deposits, just not with money via 3rd parties. Similarly okpay, dwolla and aurumxchange were all stamped on last year by regulators in the West.

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 10:04:08 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.

I dunno what the hell that is, but it sure ain't Head and Shoulders.

shmadz

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Quote from: podyx on April 07, 2014, 10:30:22 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 10:04:08 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.

huobi trying to come thru it

so close..

this chart reminds me of that long, sorry time, during 2012 when I was selling bitcoin for 5 bucks.

I'm not selling this time.

podyx

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Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 10:04:08 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.

huobi trying to come thru it

so close..

jonoiv

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🐺Dogs for President🐺

Quote from: ?? on ??

China's a bit "wtf now?"

still small volume though and as soon as it tries to break this line you will see massive resistance.

ChartBuddy

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Explanation

PoolMinor

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XXXVII Fnord is toast without bread

Yes...........

NO.....
Edit:
37 day cycle still in effect, more importantly 37 week cycle pointed out previously by someone else showing the last 4 cycles.
~April 19th is my next target.

-PoolMinor

podyx

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Quote from: 2017orso on April 07, 2014, 09:18:37 PM

People who have wrapped their head around the reality that bitcoin isn't 'going anywhere' understand political positions are just that, maneuvering. It is not an open and shut case anywhere, and prohibition simply doesn't work, especially in the midst of a global currency war and on the cusp of fiat-derived market meltdown.

bitcoin can go around it or simply go through it, it isn't here to fit in

it is here to get right in

2017orso

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People who have wrapped their head around the reality that bitcoin isn't 'going anywhere' understand political positions are just that, maneuvering. It is not an open and shut case anywhere, and prohibition simply doesn't work, especially in the midst of a global currency war and on the cusp of fiat-derived market meltdown.

MinermanNC

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Ya know what's ironic, is a majority of all the asic mining gear/chips etc in use today comes from the china foundry's. I'm sure they have no problems with that side of it all..... and one would think that the Chinese gov would want to be a leader in this new technology and get out ahead of the usa in its development. I really think in time we will see a shift in their stance towards BTC when they really understand it and the potential it has, much that has yet to be developed. So hang on tight,,,, I for one really don't think its and open and shut case yet by a long shot over there

ChartBuddy

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Quote from: adamstgBit on April 07, 2014, 08:41:51 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 08:37:18 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 07, 2014, 08:20:46 PM

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

the China issue is done. I seriously doubt poeple in china only now heard that china banned bitcoin.

and guess what, chinese poeple like HODLING too....

That's exactly right, they aren't just going to give up their BTC that easy,,,, lol as u say, they like hodling too! I'm sure they hope that the PBOC will come back with some exceptions or guidance just like we have here in the states, and we finally are! No mention of banning here

JorgeStolfi

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Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 08

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2782 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 452 USD.

Plot legend

This last data point was fair (S = 0.0035, W = 0.782) but totally off the trend followed by the four previous points. Obviously there was a break in the trend. With a single data point, the best one can do is to use the banal prediction, "tomorrow will be the same as today".

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.17 CNY/USD (it was 6.15, 6.23, 6.20 at the last three Slumber Times).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-06, 23:00 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-04-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Foiled again:

Huobi's predicted price: 2929 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2782 CNY
Error: 147 CNY (~24 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 472 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 452 USD
Error: 20 USD

NOTE: "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." --P. K. Dick

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 08:28:05 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 07, 2014, 08:20:46 PM

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

I'm ready to turn bull when I see it.

But so far not a sniff.

+1. Discover debit cards are great, but that won't reverse the most populous nation on Earth losing access to buy.

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 08:37:18 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on April 07, 2014, 08:20:46 PM

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

the China issue is done. I seriously doubt poeple in china only now heard that china banned bitcoin.

and guess what, chinese poeple like HODLING too....

billyjoeallen

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Quote from: adamstgBit on April 07, 2014, 08:20:46 PM

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

bassclef

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Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 08:19:04 PM

Quote from: bassclef on April 07, 2014, 08:14:44 PM

Quote from: jonoiv on April 07, 2014, 07:57:57 PM

Quote from: bassclef on April 07, 2014, 07:51:03 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 07, 2014, 07:37:15 PM

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

The final shoulder in the pattern you think you are seeing needs to go up to form a reverse head n shoulders. And as the 1, 2, 4 hour MACD are all going down. how will you get this reversal of fortunes?

The goal is to spot it before it completes: Recognize the volume pattern and the fact that head & shoulder patterns (and variations thereof) occur all over the place in historical BTC trend reversals. So buy the right shoulder and short the distance from the head to the neckline, which it will probably bounce back off of.

MACD complicates things (if I use it I like the 12/24hr version much better) and one can use EMA lines to a similar effect.

Identifying trends and reversals is bread & butter trading and is more reliable than indicators, which are simply there to help.

April 4th. looked the same and look what happened next. That trend line needed to break through has only been breached once since December. What makes you so sure, it will happen now?

Zoom out and use 6/12/24h charts, much more reliable and filters out noise. April 4 was the bottom of head.

For historical reference look at 24h chart from ~6/20 to 7/29. Massive head & shoulder reversal, see the resemblance? Neckline slopes downward, as it often does. It bounces back off it on 8/9. The difference then is that then, we had a single final capitulation event. This time we have a double final capitulation event, making this reversal slightly smaller in proportion. But it has been doubly painful, for sure.

That's my take. This could be the left shoulder of something bigger. But the pattern would still hold true, unless it didn't. Isn't trading fun Cheesy

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