Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28393. (Read 26608384 times)

Yes, the strategy is simply to be all USD when the daily mean price is about to fall, and all BTC when it is about to rise.  One only needs to read the future up to the next trading opportunity.

There may be some adjustments to this basic strategy at the ends of the whole session, depending on how one enters and how one prefers to exit (with USD or with BTC).  The script I posted has these options.

Your wrong in your thinking. Theoretically you hardly need any new capital to create a higher price and/or higher market cap. This is due to how many coins are actually on sale at any one time.


It is exaggerated in coins that have a larger number of total coins. This is due to market cap being last price x coin supply. For example NXT has 999,997,096 coins that means for every dollar rise in price the market cap rises $999,997,096 dollars. People bitched about the same thing with Quark and the amount of coins it has that artifically inflated its market cap.

In the case of BTC if everyone but one guy took their coins from the ask side and one guy put his coin up for sale at $10,000. Once somebody buys that coin the last price of BTC is $10,000 and the market cap is $126,163,250,000. All that with just $10,000.

I agree that the bitcoin infrastructure is way more mature than it was a year ago. Thing is though that most companies accepting bitcoin do so by using Bitpay, this way the bitcoins spend for certain services/goods will have to be sold again on the market making the net increase in the demand for bitcoin as a result of more companies accepting bitcoin near zero.

Any and every one of us hodlers can increase our holdings without risking another dollar by selling relatively high and buying back lower. The higher the price gets, the more incentive to defect from the cartel. I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but part of my responsibility to the community is to take money from idiots.

Shrem and Ulbrich are (or will be) jailed for other reasons, not for bitcoin fraud or theft.  Part of the bitcoin community even sees them as heroes/martyrs. 

AFAIK, the only bitcoin thieves/scammers that have been jailed so far are the owners of GBL, a Chinese exchange.

Business Insider
A Bitcoin Exchange Holding $4.1 Million For 1,000 Customers Has Simply Vanished
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-exchange-gbl-holding-41-billion-vanishes-2013-11

BBC News
Five held over Bitcoin scams in China and Germany
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25217386

It would need way more than 13 times as much money, you are forgetting that the BTC supply is still increasing. Money needs to be pumped into the BTC eco system for it to maintain its price, therefore if money is withdrawn from this system, the price will drop more rapidly than if the same amount of money was injected into it. This is why these so called BTC bulls (read: people who got in early and want to dump massive amounts of BTC at a good price) keep telling people to hodl.
Those are the same people who are pitching BTC to stupid money, saying that the dollar is inflationary etc., well atm the BTC is more inflationary than the USD.

Wow!!!
Thanks for the update.

No, the price rises because the demand rises.

No, it is not dead. Or is the dollar dead because of the HSBC mouney laundering fiasco, etc?

and as soon as the price rises the demand falls.

well i have false courage in the usa due to IRS ruling...after mining gross profits figured i'm at 16k or so gross income...if i sell now that property is BTC according to IRS in less then 1yr it is 43% captital gains on top of the 25%gross income tax i'd pay for the above mining in 2013...not sure if i have to go full fledge 'business' to get equip and other deductions if so there is a 13.1% tax for being employed...now that is if i sell within the year..if a year and a day.then it is 20% on capital gains...yeah you guessed it looking like i'm holding coward or not...

man i knew i was gonna HODL but this is quite the straight jacket...i assumed..(sigh) i could sell some coin this year to pay tax man ..er not so much...or IRS made this retroactive to 2009 all coins you ever mined you supposedly have to report this year (honor system in usa...you honor or they toss you in jail take all your stuff)

oh and no way i can cheat...i had my bank mess up like 4 wire xfers to get my 3 knc miners (1 i kept jupiter other Titan on hold till next  year..don't get me started on bfl wire xfers too over 5k...sigh... with the back and forth signing of 10k wire xfers in and out of the country and all the signing of the paper work  stating i quote stuff over 10k in usa (this wire xfer is not being used  to avoid usa taxes by moving money overseas" etc...each wire xfer over 5k is looked at..including the 4 or so that 'broke' and had to be re-done...i hear alarms going off at IRS hdqts as i speak of the money sloshing about on those forms....and of course only used the 1 blockchain address (I know noob)...in my defense i made that amount from sept 18th till dec 31st..not  like i had a lot of time to figure stuff out ..considering my tax lady ..and congress said if i held the coin no tax till i spent it..heh right...

not to mention bitstamp/mtgox/bitcoinbuilder/coinbase all having my drivers license and personal info at the request of the us gov't so they can more closely follow usa banking laws on illegal money xfers...

so to put me back on topic for this thread ...is the fact the price is STILL 450  more due to the above for us USA types and I assume the people in China in a similar bind...figuring the other thread just hide their bitcoin or move it to hong kong..ie our option is to hold it or lose it?

so is this why the price is at 450usd btc...I myself with IRS ruling expected it to tank to 200 bucks along with the china ban on bank xfers..but just sits at 450 looking at me...

anyway.....for 16k ...i'll call myself a small business do it correctly probably end up kicking in  2 or 3k to the tax man

i'm to pretty to go to jail...hope this gets fixed by congress in usa this year with some retroactive options for me from 2013

but man don't have a clue on why it is at 450 except for pissed off chinese and american btc holder going 'screw this'

anyway...we also serve who quiver and hold with our butt against the wall to prevent further adventures

Searing

While the "China bank account closure" drama was unfolding, it seems that Neo & Bee collapsed in Cyprus, in a rather ugly way. The CEO left the country without telling staff, and is not answering questions from anyone.  The staff did not receive their March salaries and therefore quit en masse.  There are unpaid debts, and two customers complained to the police that they gave money to N&B to buy bitcoins but did not receive them.  A financial report that was promised at the IPO is overdue, and investors who chipped in 12,000 BTC want to know where the money went.  Its shares (that were not equity but only "profit shares") crashed to 1/10 of their IPO price.

The collapse is being reported by the local press. Presumably bitcoin is dead in Cyprus now...
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5891432

I just cant wait until the 15th and neither Huobi or BTChina close. What gox showed us is these exchanges will try and be open as much as possible. why wouldn't they? The difference is with Gox and Huobi is that gox shut because they had no coins. All the other two need to do to stay open is move some servers.

BTC price tending is based on news..
does TA predict news now??

i wish we can predict highs and lows, drawing some lines.. but that doesnt work for cryptos

TA is nice to play between news. But looking for long term analysis.. no way.

Dude I think you might need to take a break.  Not everything posted here is deadly serious.  

There were rumors of Gox closing for months. There was denial all the way up until the day deposits were halted. China exchanges closing is playing out the same way. Those exchanges will closed unless the PBoC reverses policy, which would be extremely unlikely. Much of the consequence has been priced in, but not all of it. Not yet. The two largest Chinese exchanges, Huobi and BTC China, are still operating. When one of these goes down, $400 support will be tested. If they both go down simultaneously, that support will likely be broken.

People have been saying we're out of the woods for months. I was one of them. Step back and have a little self-awareness. Without resolution, there can be no change in trend.

75billion market cap would only need about 7 billion to fund

This is because it get's pumped and nobody wants to sell when it rises
In fact, there is probably less then a million bitcoin for sale right now under $10k

That's easy. People who comes into contact with BTC. The driving force for the evangelism will come from the start-ups who are funded by the VCs.

Good point. Just imagine the average Joe having 5 whole bitcoins on his personal wallet, instead of 30.000 dollars in the bank. Do you already see him calculating when he's buying some kitchen appliance for 0,01 or 0,0092 bitcoin?
My wits tell me that just won't work.

Explanation