I love how this thread go quiet on weekends but the soon there is a price action all users jump in and start writing pages of new posts in a matter of few minutes... "CCMF" or "I see blood on streets" pictures of asses and trains and moons; to the point that you cant keep up with posts.
now back to topic, the market is very calm, Bitstamp is showing 6KBTC volume, hardly any trade is happening, it feels like the calm before the storm, what direction will it be ? although Adam's poll show about 38.8% of speculators that think the price will be around $450, what this means to me (if I can change this numbers to words) is most of voters didn't yet sell or buy and the majority is holding...
Nice, if I have to predict anything ( prediction pulled out of my ass), not that I have any knowledge especially when the market is this calm, and just by looking to the Bid sum, any smart "whale" wouldn't buy of this thin ASK book order ... I mean 20K to $1000 !!! I know that most people doesn't keep coins on exchanges and the soon there will be an action many traders will be sending the coins there and dumping. but I have a theory, if I was a big whale and thought about buying a large sums of BTC, one way I would take is to dump and trigger panic so people would 1) either dump in to my walls 2) start building the sell orders so I can later buy into them.
So my theory is, in order that Bitcoin rise it has to go down first, and we've seen that happen all the time, so based on all the above, I say the price will drop before we go up.
The price has already dropped from 1200 to 400... What do you expect? A drop to the 200? 100? 10? Do you know how many Bitcoins where for sale only on Gox the las april buble? I can tell you... Almost 300000... How many are now for sale at stamp? 40000? This only data is enought to see that the next bubble whould be of epic proportions, there's just not enought btc for all.
Now when you see that ultrabulls are turning bears you know its time to buy back.
