Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 06Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2874 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 466 USD.
Plot legendThis last data point was not too bad (S = 0.0038, W = 0.745), and almost aligned with the previous two points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to use again a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last three Slumber points - namely, A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2667.94, B = 68.82.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.17 CNY/USD (it was 6.20, 6.13, 5.96 at the last three Slumber Times).
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 02:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)
This was an easy hit:
Huobi's predicted price: 2796 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2808 CNY
Error: 12 CNY (~2 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 8 USD
NOTE: See the previous note.
