Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28512. (Read 26709760 times)

Thats not really true, it actually works somewhat well on decent intervals (combining with other factors obliviously)

Thanks

Well, Huobi's note brings back the uncertainty to the "March 29" stage.

It seems indeed plausible that the banks and 3rd party payment processors that called the exchanges were reacting to the Caixin article, rather than a PBoC note.  

In my understanding, the 3rd party processors were clearly violating the spirit of the December decrees, even if indirectly (through those recharge cards, which I am still not clear on how they worked).  Thus the Caixin article may have been sufficient to scare them into strict compliance.

On the other hand, the banks should have been safe (again, in my understanding), as long as they treated the exchanges like any other corporate client: dealing only with CNY, without involving themselves with bitcoins in any way.  So, the bank(s) that reportedly called some exchanges may have been overreacting.

Or perhaps the PBoC note was real, and did extend to the banks; but the banks may have convinced the PBoC that what they were doing was OK (and very lucrative, of course).  In that case, the note would have reached no further than the bank headquarters, and the branch managers would not know about it

It is possible therefore that the price will climb up to near the level of Mar/27 in the coming days, although the remaining uncertainty must have some negative impact.

EDIT: And, of course, the loss of the 3rd party channels should have a large negative impact.

Its a largely low % indicator that a lot of people want to use as if its a high % indicator resulting in a large % of losing trades.

Assuming we did just reverse - looks likes it going to be a slow grind down to 400. With a lot of panic buying along the way. There are very few shorts still out there. And some of them account for the little bit of bid sums we see anyway.

Pointing out my ignorance again, I don't understand the meaning of "4h macD". Could you please clarify? Huge thanks!

Imagine you are a whale  (with lots of cash and lots of coins ) and you wanted to sell your coins

To reduce slippage you put a huge buying wall in a safe distance from the market price

I always wonder if those who see a trend reversal just have a different time frame in mind. I will start taking a reversal of the larger downtrends, say for example the one since March 4th, into consideration once we see a 6h candle close above 580-585 480-485  (23% fibo level, and EMA that I consider important). That's the earliest point at which I'll start looking into it seriously, whether it's a reversal or not. But maybe I'm just too risk adverse.

Explanation

Next 8h~ will tell, wonder how 4h macD will form

Read the statement again. They said only 1 processor thought it was risky, but they closed all 4.

So... are we still in a bull trap or will this go to the moon already?

only one of their 3rd party payment processors thought it would be risky to continue doing business

they also plan to offer 24/7 bank deposit service

Decent read on the Texan's stand point towards crypto http://www.dob.texas.gov/lg_manual/sm1037.pdf

Just read Houbi's statement. So they are stopping 3rd party deposits April 5th.

Seems like 3rd party processors are gone across the board - all Chinese exchanges. Seems like bank deposits are still on across the board.

Seems like 3rd party processors were much more popular deposit choice (at least that's my understanding).

But price rises on the news. Lets see if we can break above 3000.

If this is a permanent reversal, why are there literally less bid sums on BFX to 400 than there was when I went to bed last night and the price was 424?

It looks to me like there was a big buyer on Bitstamp and panic buying on BFX based on the comment by Houbi.

Indeed.

There may be fake volume in the Chinese exchanges, but I have yet to see little evidence of it.  Mr. Lee's tells how they could do it, but gives no evidence that they do.

I have yet to see evidence of fake volume at Huobi. There is lots of robot (or script-assisted) trade, and their clients apparently trade much more than Westerners, on much narrower margins; but that is expected since there are no trading fees.  (If your competitor gets 10x your sales by charging 1/10 of your price, calling his sales volume "fake" is just pathetic.)

There is a suspicious steady background traffic at OKCoin, and (last time I looked) many small trades at random places within the spread (instead of at the ends of the spread, as one would expect for a trade triggered by only one of the parties). That may account for 10-20%  of their volume perhaps.  Otherwise their trade looks similar to Huobi's. 

I have not looked at the other major exchanges in China.

My understanding is that arbitrage trading is usually triggered after any significant change in price at one exchange, such as caused by a sizable trade (and "significant" and "sizable"  should be rather small given the no-fee policy).  Thus one should expect significant trades to be followed by other significant trades within tens of seconds at most. 

Actually the only clearly fake trade I saw in China was a burst of 40,000 BTC robot-traded at BTC-China within a some months ago, which several people noticed and understood to be by runaway trading robot(s).   Mr. Lee did not mention that, did he?

On the other hand, there was always suspicion of fake trades in MtGOX.  Analysis of the leaked database may perhaps prove or disprove that.  Who can tell whether the other Western exchanges are not doing it too?

In fact, I suspect that half or more of the trade at the Western exchanges is merely arbitrage trading from China. If and when China stops trading, we will be able to verify that.   

Mr. Lee obviously needs to justify why his exchange should be considered an important player in the Chinese market when their volume is now usually less than 1/20 of Huobi's or OKCoin's.  Actually there are other perfectly good explanations for their decline.

Finally, Western bitcoin startups looking for investors and clients obviously do not want to admit that the price of bitcoin was -- and still is -- defined largely by the speculative Chinese market, which is completely unpredictable and closed to them.  Of course the thesis of "fake volume" is music to their ears, even if there is no evidence to support it.

Haven't you heard? It's a bull trap. The bears on this forum confirmed it.

Before I went to bed I place more shorts at the 38, 50, 61 Fib retracements. Hit first two a few minutes before I woke up. Missed last one by $1.

However, I think we will probably hit it. The dead cat bounce might go on for a little bit after Houbi decides to claim ignorance about the Chinese regulations. Guess everyone is affected except for them.  

slight trend reversal this morning...glad to see there is a little growing buy support today

Look at the orderbook. A lot of the buying was people moving their orders up. There is actually less depth to 400 on Bitfinex than they was when we were at 415.