Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28595. (Read 26712691 times)

Finally some volume on stamp!

Yes. At least one whale insider will receive notice before the reporters.

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 2

April Fools day is not over yet, so making again a fool of myself:

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2963 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 490 USD.


Plot legend

Huobi's clients did not have an easy night, and this last Slumber Point was somewhat weak (S = 0.0091, W = 0.192).  Still, the Method says to use the straight trend line defined by the last two Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Mar/31 , A = 2759, B = 102.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.05 CNY/USD (it was 5.96, 6.06, 6.02, 6.08 at the last four Slumber Times, skipping the bad Mar/30 point).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-01, 04:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2759 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2861 CNY
Error: 102 CNY (~17 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 455 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 480 USD
Error: 25 USD

EDIT: the prediction was posted at 04:02, not 01:00.

NOTE: If a circular is sent to the banks by PBoC, but no reporter is there to see it, does it make a crashing sound?

Thanks... I had noticed the "Jr" had disappeared from my title... he he he...   That status update does feel a little better.    and when I had the title Newbie, at least one person, or maybe it was a bot, who I will leave unnamed for now was trying to minimize my contribution by specifically referring to me as "newbie."   

oh my fucking god...a new low in fluff journalism, speechless

Thanks.  I am NOT going from personal experience in terms of my own buying history  b/c as I have mentioned several times, I began to buy in the end of November 2013. 

So my question to any of you who have been around for previous upswings and flat downward trends that followed... was there a drying up of the volume right before the burst upward? 

I mean it is possible that we are NOT going to have a choo choo in the next few weeks.. but the choo choo may have a certain degree of inability to predict exactly when b/c you get one big investor... and viola... CCMF....  that one investor is contagious to all the others who do NOT want to miss the train/rocket.... and we are on our merry way.

Can anyone address this denigration of volume question?  And, in this particular moment, we have quite a bit of BTC transactions that seem to be occurring off of exchanges b/c there may be a bit of skepticism about putting too much capital on any of the exchanges after the GOX situation (and a few other more minor BTC thefts that were exchange related - including SR2).

Good choice, coconut water is undoubtedly better than any soda, and diet soda?!?! Aspartame is something you should probably never consume. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCxnKwCsW7I

Congratz on becoming a "member" btw I enjoy your posts.

Thanks Gentlemand - you certainly are living up to your name.    I must have been having a brain fart.  The post makes much more sense with that explanation.   

Well, soon we will either explode or start falling... depends how the next whale feels

It's playing out just as the last bubbles. we have been here before, in this pit of doom and gloom 5 times.

Bitcoin cannot stay idle for years, it will rocket or fall.

The fundamentals have not changed, I think you will see your ATH this year and some.

Precious Metals.

We'll maybe when you drink it, you become more cheerful and easily humored... ?  At least when you get the buzz from it before it kills you?      

I am joking a little bit bc I could give a ratt's ass what people do or choose to do.  Personally, I stopped drinking most sugary beverages (including sodas and a lot of the other crap) nearly three years ago.    And, diet versions are probably as bad, if NOT worse, then some of the non-diet versions.  Actually, it took quite some time to ween myself completely, b/c they are fairly addictive, believe it or NOT.  My current vice, if you would call it that, is buying young coconuts and drinking the juice from there.  A little more expensive than sodas... but likely to be pretty good nutrition with a pretty decent taste, once you extract yourself from sugar cravings.

We do have enemies, we really need to HODL and support the ever living fuck out of any business that takes bitcoin. And that means you should BUY back any btc you spend IMMEDIATELY, or wait if it's on a downtrend. This is the only kind of speculation I normally do, and it means you never stop HODLING.

I'M lost with the acronym "PM" =    

I thought PM was personal messages. 

Are you talking about sending bitcoins via PM?  - like M-Pesa in Kenya? 

I know that they have this texting value (minutes) Kenya and it may be very applicable to bitcoin..

We could also measure BTC from late November 2013 to its present price, and achieve more than 60% loss in value. 

Funny thing also, is currently, when I look up the November 2013 time-frame on bitcoincharts.com.  Regarding Bitstamp, I find a BTC price high of about $1150; however, I bought my first BTC on 11/29 through Localbitcoins for $1200 per BTC.  We already know that Localbitcoins can have a very wide range of prices, and frequently the sellers thereon are able to sell at much beyond the price in other venues.   I recall that I did NOT buy from the highest vender or on the highest day. And I recall between November 29 and December 5 -ish seeing that there were advertisements on localbitcoins for nearly $1600 per BTC.  I do NOT know whether many BTC were transacted at prices between $1200 and $1600, yet with all the hype at the time, I would imagine that there would have been quite a few BTCs transacted in that price range.

I do NOT mind flash crashes, but hovering and lingering in the $480 range for too long causes me to begin to believe that it is going to take a while for BTC prices to return to ATH... and maybe, just maybe we will NOT see another ATH this calendar year.  A lot of us were banking on another BTC ATH this calendar year..  but maybe that new ATH will be put off until 2015?  If I were a betting man, I would need to be given fairly decent odds before I would take the new ATH in 2014 bet.

in other words... currently, blood is beginning to seep into the streets... and if BTC prices were to go to the $300s and then linger in the $300s... that would increase perceptions of BTC doom and gloom... though ATM, I would place the odds of reaching $390 in the next month to be greater than the odds of reaching a new ATH before August 2014... that is my current thinking... but I am talking out of my ass somewhat b/c I am like a cave dweller in plato's allegory of the cave... with very much incomplete information and I realize that if some big ass investor (anything of 100 million or greater) were to come into BTC at any minute.. that new entrance into BTC could cause a real high demand for BTC and a rippling effect beyond any lines on any charts.. and suddenly considerable volume would materialize where, at the moment, LITTLE volume seems to be in sight.

1 share = 1 satoshi? wow he's bullish!

Bitstamp buy support is slowly mounting.

I agree. I don't drink it very often.

When he sounds like a fool on TV (in the eyes of a clueless reporter)  and or you never hear from him again, it's time to start selling.

Explanation

Indeed, I loled hard. That "redactor" is really epic ; can't even plead incompetence, he's really doing it on purpose... or maybe :
- he just took a random range : 3 months (yeah 3 is good),
- from hmm let's say since the ATH and oh surprise after an ATH we got a correction. Ok so it's "a crash", -38% value OMG worst investissement ever ! (So why not the title, really shinny)
- let's not check the 4 years before with around +10000%/year instead of -38%.

I guess some of the words in his Twitter description needs to be switched : "I write about finance, markets and economics for Quartz. Decent guitarist. Terrible banjo player." !