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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28601. (Read 26712937 times)

legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
When Mt Gox was dying, the market slid for months. When they stopped accepting deposits (for the last time), the market crashed to $400 and immediately rebounded to $710.
The slide from $710 to $436 was because the eventual banning of BTC exchanges was being priced in. There was some confirmation of this with two small exchanges that took us from $486 back down to $440.  

Markets hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. Bad news can be priced in. Uncertainty by it's very nature cannot.  What is certain is that when and if a final confirmation from the PBoC comes out or Chinese exchanges stop accepting deposits, the China Syndrome will be behind us and other factors will dominate price action.


The time to buy is when things are at their worst, when things can't get any worse. The irony is that Wall Street money will likely not come in until after we sell. If we never sell, it could take them months, years or eternity. Wall street doesn't want to share our success. They want to take our success from us. They're not angels. They are vultures. The only way to keep them out is to bootstrap another rally without them, have them buy in and we slowly and methodically take profits on the way up.  It would require a level of support at least twice as high as what's on our current order books.

The two external possibilities that can save us are an official denial by the PBoC of an imminent bitcoin ban or a influx of billionaire whale money. Both are very possible but unlikely.  As a community, the way we can save ourselves is for The Bottom to be defended on very high volume. Next dip below $550, buy like crazy and don't sell till you see $100 profit. That dip will come unless a whale intervenes. There will be no organic rally without another defense of the bottom.

Disclosure: I'm not talking my book here. I'm trapped in a leveraged long position and resigned to either sell at a profit or get wiped out in a margin call. I got screwed because I thought the PBoC would either confirm or deny the rumor by now. They claim to be concerned for the welfare of speculators and consumers and then keep us in the dark. I guess that's what we should expect from banksters.

Your attempt at concerted action is like herding cats..... I admire it, but really, I doubt you are gonna get people to engage in some mass buying campaign... b/c each of us is in a different position.. and maybe we do NOT have enough capital to buy, buy, buy.... I know the other strategy is to hodl and don't play the selling game..,..,. and that could cause prices to rise with smaller volume and cause a whale to come in that does NOT want to lose out on the upward momentum.....

You are correct about the intense bitterness that wallstreet likely has in regard to bitcoin investors and they are likely very reluctant to empower the "undeserving" early bitcoin adopters to make any high level(s) of profit.



hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Trying to summarize the situation again:

* A Caixin reporter claimed last week that he saw a PBoC document, to be sent to banks and third-party payment processors, prohibiting them to pass CNY deposits to the exchanges immediately (through corporate or personal accounts), and setting a deadline of april 15 for them to stop processing withdrawals too.

* The Chinese exchange Bter warned their clients that their payment processor stopped all deposits to them. So that part of the Caixin claim, at least, was true.

*  As for the bank part of the Caixin claim, so far there is only ONE source for that claim. namely that Caixin reporter. 

* Bter did not use banks, and other exchanges have not reported any blocking  of deposits yet.

* On the other hand, the PBoC has not denied that claim yet, five days after it was leaked.

* The exchange CEOs commented the matter at first, but have been silent since then.

I do not know what to think, and apparently the Market is confused too.

If the bank blockade order is real, perhaps the exchange CEOs are lobbying the PBoC to reverse or soften it --- hence their silence?

I recall reading somewhere that workers in China get paid at the end of the month; is that so?  Perhaps the exchanges' corporate bank accounts were kept open until now so that they can pay their staff?

Another (very unlikely) possibility is that the banks understood the order to mean that they can accept the client deposits into the exchanges' accounts, but cannot allow the exchanges to withdraw money from those accounts? (In that case the exchanges could still function normally, by leaving all the deposited money in that account and executing client CNY withdrawls from it, until April 15; except that they could not collect  the deposit/withdrawal fees.)

What is the mechanics of depositing CNY on the Chinese exchanges through the banks?   Would the exchanges notice immediately if the deposits are blocked?  If the exchanges have other sources of revenue, or investor funds in the bank, would they be blocked too? How would the banks know which money is which?

 Huh
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199

Yes this is not bad!
I hope this price is a result of Bitcoin power! Smiley As I see it wont come >400$ Smiley and I am very happy with that.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
hahahahah guys even more hilarious, google is hiring    https://www.google.com/about/careers/search/#!t=jo&jid=32155002


 Grin  google made the best joke of the day  Grin

I should apply.  This is a programming job even I could handle.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Quote
Great news everyone! Bitcoin NOT banned in China!

Quote
BREAKING NEWS: Bobby Lee Confirms Bitcoin China Ban

hmmm....

interesting.

only one thing for certain - the price is rising
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
hahahahah guys even more hilarious, google is hiring    https://www.google.com/about/careers/search/#!t=jo&jid=32155002


 Grin  google made the best joke of the day  Grin
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 500
Can't upload avatar
http://www.thewire.com/business/2014/04/bitcoin-has-been-one-of-the-worst-investments-in-the-world-this-year/359970/

Quote
Of course, it’s no surprise that confidence in the crypto-currency has been crumbling. First of all, unless you were laundering money, dodging taxes or selling drugs, it never really made much sense to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange. It did momentarily make a lot of sense to own bitcoin for a few months. But only because it was going up. In other words, it made sense if you were confident you could flip it to another sucker at a tidy profit.

I just wanted to post this http://qz.com/193931/bitcoin-looks-like-the-worst-investment-in-the-world-this-year/

And that Max, it's his day, isn't it.


Anyway, everything goes according to plan. December moon landing OK, now drlling. I hope we find something valuable.



legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Quote
Great news everyone! Bitcoin NOT banned in China!

Quote
BREAKING NEWS: Bobby Lee Confirms Bitcoin China Ban

hmmm....

interesting.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Am I seeing a daily green candle with higher high, higher low and more volume than yesterday?
I know that one alone is not enough to say we're out of muddy waters, but hey! That bottle of champagne wine has been sitting in the fridge for too long, so fuck this I'm gonna open it anyway.
full member
Activity: 211
Merit: 100
Would be 600 USD next week (5-10 days) and more than 700 USD after http://bitcoinexpo.ca/ finished and stabilized in 700-750 until May. IF http://www.globalbtcsummit.com/en/ go smooth, June/July would be new highest price of all time...

Sorry no evidences, just a hunch...
sr. member
Activity: 560
Merit: 250
"Trading Platform of The Future!"
Heavy buy support, low sell support...  Cool
460 has 2.2K buy support. 500 less than 1K
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Ultranode
http://www.thewire.com/business/2014/04/bitcoin-has-been-one-of-the-worst-investments-in-the-world-this-year/359970/

Quote
Of course, it’s no surprise that confidence in the crypto-currency has been crumbling. First of all, unless you were laundering money, dodging taxes or selling drugs, it never really made much sense to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange. It did momentarily make a lot of sense to own bitcoin for a few months. But only because it was going up. In other words, it made sense if you were confident you could flip it to another sucker at a tidy profit.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1001
Max kieser gone crazy hahahahaha http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Zm7gQvTl2dA#t=1104

1st April joke ? hahahahhaah this is amazing  Cheesy


"I don't know if you noticed, but I almost knocked him out just then."

lol
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
When Mt Gox was dying, the market slid for months. When they stopped accepting deposits (for the last time), the market crashed to $400 and immediately rebounded to $710.
The slide from $710 to $436 was because the eventual banning of BTC exchanges was being priced in. There was some confirmation of this with two small exchanges that took us from $486 back down to $440.

Yep, a double-whammy capitulation event. I think the worst may be behind us, the community having learned a tough lesson by a proper Goxxing and telling the Chinese to get onboard or get off the boat.

I wish that I could definitively say that final capitulation took place, but we won't know until support gets defended on higher volume. We need higher lows on increasing volume and that's not happening (yet).  I still wouldn't want to be a bear now. The knowledge that any one of thousands of people could blow the lid off price with a market buy that soaks up all liquidity in a flash would make me even more nervous than I am.

$19 Billion for What's Ap?  
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Ultranode
Wall street is not coming to bitcoin. A reincarnation of Stratton Oakmont? Maybe. But they are more likely to peddle scammy alts than bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
Max kieser gone crazy hahahahaha http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Zm7gQvTl2dA#t=1104

1st April joke ? hahahahhaah this is amazing  Cheesy


Omg Wink he really does gone crazy Smiley

he perhaps really wanted to celebrate 1st of April Tongue

Very entertaining!
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
Max kieser gone crazy hahahahaha http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Zm7gQvTl2dA#t=1104

1st April joke ? hahahahhaah this is amazing  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
China likely won't criminalize ownership for a long time, if ever. What they can do is make it difficult for the Chinese people to buy bitcoins. As the current price is not a function of current utility, but a discounted expectation of future price, this could lead to a drop in price. The knowledge of less money flowing into bitcoinisphere from the Middle Kingdom is a downward pressure on price.

If I had billions, I would be pouring it into Bitcoin now, but I don't. If I had millions, I would be building walls around support at $400 to $450 (but I don't).

The utility of Bitcoin is still  increasing rapidly. The system is anti-fragile and will survive and grow, but it will  not be overnight and bitcoin profit will be earned- not given to you. 
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
Moderator
When will those second market coins be available for sale on a real market? How much longer will the customers be goxxed?
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