Nice little wall at 350-450 has formed. This might give us another 1-4 weeks before 400 is broken, and maybe even a bulltrap to 550 or so where the next shorting opportunity will be.
I think that those orders are from new market meat. Like a friend of mine who called me a fool at 100, and yet he is now patiently waiting for his chance to become my greater fool. Their logic is quite simple: "it looks like it's going to go up but it is crashing now. 1000 is too much, 300 is right, let me put a bid at 350-450."
I think there are many of them this time. This month we'll see them fighting with the butthurt fools who want out of bitcoin.
Yeah... I see those kind of people saying $1000 is too much and then they want lower... then it goes lower and then they want lower.. and then it goes lower and they say, "shit, I cannot buy when prices are this low, b/c it may go down lower" They say, let me think about it... then they buy when it is going up and then they sell when it goes back down.. and blame you for getting them into it.
One of the biggest mistakes made by new traders is not incorporating TIME into their calculations.
I know that I was being a little stereotypical with my description of a certain kind of investor..... that is the kind of investor that keeps saying wait.. wait, wait.. and then when finally gets in.. jumps out too quickly based on emotions, rather than having some perspective or vision...
However, the other difficulty that comes about may be that BTC or whatever investment receives a lot of publicity when prices are on a bull run streak.. and therefor other kinds of more thoughtful people find out and buy in as the market prices are going up or approaching top of that bull run streak... Then these second kind of newbies may need to wait for a considerable amount of time - and sometimes years for the price to return to their initial buy-in level.... which sometimes in the interim, there is some kind of failure of the investment and price never returns to that previous high.
I describe this second newbie situation b/c it applies to my personal circumstances, and your recent bearish assessments do bother me to some extent even though it seems as if you have fairly decent insight for reaching your conclusions... I do appreciate and recognize your concerns about volume and concerns about why we are NOT seeing volume play out. Surely, recent volume is just lacking and that is a fact that we cannot escape in the very near short term - unless volume comes about as a surprise element.. which may be more wishful thinking, rather than real and measurable. Yet, BTC seems to be built around a kind of quasi-reality... of a few whales who are continuously able to influence BTC price quickly and surprisingly.
For example, some of these institutional investors in the pipeline - second market and such, seem to be very good potential sources for an onrush of BTC volume.. All of this may be pie in the sky, but seems like it could happen at sometime in the near future.. especially since BTC has been on a downtrend for four months (which is part of a 4 year pattern, with BTC). In this regard, even though we cannot really see on the surface from where the volume is going to come, the wider publicity of bitcoin over the last 6 months seems to cause very decent likelihood that some savior whale(s) are going to come to our rescue.. and thereafter cause a stampede of additional passengers on this train/rocket to da moon.
