If NOT $1500 by July, maybe $1500-ish at some point before the end of the calendar year?
I remember people "calling it" last November:
Anyone got any speculation for where we are headed in the short term?
Seem's like everyone's just so surprised we broke $1000 nobody planned any speculation for afterwards, and I need speculation.
Surprised ? Who ?
When it was crashing from 900 and we reached 550 USD I said : It will fall below 500 but 400 will hold. If 400 holds then we will hit 1000 USD within the next 10 days. And here we are 7 days later... All correct.
Expect more of the same, going up strong with some corrections/ crashes on the way. For exemple we maybe hit 1600 before crashing back to 1200, then resume rise.
I believe it can again double by the end of the year to 2000 USD. A more conservative estimation is 1500 USD by the end of the year.
In 2014 I believe we'll witness the bull through the 4 digits with the 5 digits in sight. When we reach 5 digits is anyone's guess but I personally see it happen within 12 months.
So ... people felt 2k to be a reasonable figure by the end of 2013.
Personally, I wonder IF we'll see $700-800/BTC this year. There are plenty of lines drawn on charts; $1500 by the end of July, Risto thought of $1M/coin and so on.
De facto: IF all Chinese investors cash out their coins at a loss right about now, we'll see a stable $150 for quite some time.
Not to mention the bankruptcy of some major Chinese exchanges; negative news coverage all over the world, the "Ponzi" word pulled way more than it should and so on.
Surely the scenarios that I projected could happen within the time-frames that i specified, and the scenarios that you described could happen, as well. People invest based on a lot of this and take chances and none of it is guaranteed. There are odds, and we project based on our information and intuition and logic and speculation regarding which outcome we expect or hope for. In this regard, some outcomes are more likely than other to take place, and sometimes we may invest incorrectly or predict wrong b/c there are a variety of factors, as you mentioned.
Investors ? people with USD on the exchanges ?! Where ? I cannot see them anywhere.
Some of the infrastructure building and investment is occurring and projected. It may take place and it may NOT. It may take place within the next year and it may be delayed or diverted or abandoned, and all of these factors affect future value and the time frame. If we wait for all of this to be accomplished, then the price would have already adjusted for the occurrence. That is why some early adopters of BTC realized price returns of more than 100 times their original investment. There is NO guarantee any positive returns will continue or that all of the factors will align in order to allow for positive returns.
You can bet for BTC prices to go up, you can bet against it or you can stay out, and surely there are variations of such in terms of hedging bets, diversifying going all in balls to the wall or staying out completely or investing in some related industries based on whatever speculation you have.