Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28642. (Read 26713762 times)

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
It's only $7,- of price pump.

Lets just wait till it surpasses that magical $666 line.  Roll Eyes

Yes. Tired of all the hasty abuse of train images. People do that each time there's a small jump, ignorant that each time they're making noise it's for a much lower price than the last time they made noise.

And no sooner does someone yell "CCMF" than the price begins to dive again, deeper than the previous low.

Kids these days.  


.... the sentiment is not bullish right now!

ALWAYS there will be people crying ccmf and MOON and a few of them will be right!
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
The main Western exchanges that took part in this partial crash were Bitstamp,  Bitfinex and BTC-e.  Kraken had very small volume, 2.23 kBTC max, on Thursday; and LakeBTC did not budge from the usual 3--4 kBTC.

Typically, those three exchanges were churning ~20 kBTC per day.  On Thursday, Friday and Sunday, they traded ~220 kBTC above that baseline in total.

In China, Huobi, OKCoin and BTC-China together had ~50 kBTC of trade last Sunday, and ~170 kBTC daily from Monday to Wednesday.  On Thursday, Friday and Sunday they had about 360 + 270 + 130 = 760 kBTC traded above those baselines.

It is hard to interpret these numbers, since many of those coins were probably traded many times, both in China and outside it.   However, we may perhaps say that at most 220 kBTC were exported from China to those three exchanges  by the arbitrage traders during the crash.
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.  

Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?



The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage.  People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market.  But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time.  When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much.  When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly.




In my post above here:  

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5993520

I am describing why I think that exchanges set prices and that whale manipulation of prices is taking place on exchanges and that there is an incentive to manipulate prices - even if the big purchases are taking place outside of exchanges.


Oh, I've always taken it as a near certainty that the exchanges themselves are completely corrupt in terms of spot price.  I also expect that they do favors for their insider friends.  Some exchanges may not, but I assume it anyway.  Bitcoin exchanges really are the 'free market' in that they are unencumbered by any form of regulation or ethics.  Most of them are (demonstrably) just waiting for the best opportunity to have a 'hack' and walk away with people's money.  I had a relatively high degree of confidence in Tradehill-I back in the day, but I still bent over backwards to limit my exposure.

If you are good at reading the tea leaves, this innate corruption in the Bitcoin ecosystem (Libertarian utopia that it is) might be able to be read and played upon.  In a similar way I figure there is probably some truth to the assertions that the gold and silver markets are artificially depressed with paper instruments.  That's awesome as long as I'm a buyer (only physical in my case) and I've yet to need to switch sides and need to sell.


Seems like we may be kind of in agreement, even though we are using different ways of expressing and different examples to make similar points. 

So your gold and silver examples also seem to support my points in that we already get the sense that gold and silver prices are manipulated, and gold is about a 7 trillion dollar market - which is about 1000 times larger than bitcoin.. and if they can manipulate gold then it must be quite a bit easier to manipulate bitcoin.. maybe NOT exactly 1000 times easier... but some magnitude easier.    IN that regard, my suggestion is that if you can manipulate the prices on the exchanges, then that manipulation has a magnification effect and benefit beyond the exchanges.. and the manipulator can reap the benefits outside of the exchanges from whatever it had cost him to manipulate on the exchanges.


Here's my earlier described example:


For example, if an institutional investor can manipulate prices, and it costs that institutional investor, let's say for argument sake 1 million to manipulate BTC prices downward.. but the institutional investor is able to acquire, 20,000 BTC for average of $500 per BTC rather than average of $650, then that institutional investor has just saved $2 million.  $3million saved from purchase of coins at lower price at $1million cost to manipulate the market downward = $2 million profits overall.    Surely the numbers work out differently with different quantities of BTC purchases.  If an institutional investor wants to acquire 200,000 BTC, then multiply that by 10, and you get $30million savings and the institutional investor may be willing to take large losses on exchanges to keep the prices down and to save and to get 200,000 BTC at $500 average rather than $650 average. 










full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 100
I like to be optomistic but only 500 to 450 is a bit scary.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Time to close shorts bears??
full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 100
CCMF.  Party insiders at Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau have confirmed that they are expecting to see a huge upswing in both price and volume this week.  Once again thanks to Proudhon for the tip.  Cool

What is "huge?" How do you define, "huge?"

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283

I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.  

Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?



The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage.  People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market.  But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time.  When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much.  When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly.




In my post above here:  

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5993520

I am describing why I think that exchanges set prices and that whale manipulation of prices is taking place on exchanges and that there is an incentive to manipulate prices - even if the big purchases are taking place outside of exchanges.


Oh, I've always taken it as a near certainty that the exchanges themselves are completely corrupt in terms of spot price.  I also expect that they do favors for their insider friends.  Some exchanges may not, but I assume it anyway.  Bitcoin exchanges really are the 'free market' in that they are unencumbered by any form of regulation or ethics.  Most of them are (demonstrably) just waiting for the best opportunity to have a 'hack' and walk away with people's money.  I had a relatively high degree of confidence in Tradehill-I back in the day, but I still bent over backwards to limit my exposure.

If you are good at reading the tea leaves, this innate corruption in the Bitcoin ecosystem (Libertarian utopia that it is) might be able to be read and played upon.  In a similar way I figure there is probably some truth to the assertions that the gold and silver markets are artificially depressed with paper instruments.  That's awesome as long as I'm a buyer (only physical in my case) and I've yet to need to switch sides and need to sell.

full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 100
It's only $7,- of price pump.

Lets just wait till it surpasses that magical $666 line.  Roll Eyes

Yes. Tired of all the hasty abuse of train images. People do that each time there's a small jump, ignorant that each time they're making noise it's for a much lower price than the last time they made noise.

And no sooner does someone yell "CCMF" than the price begins to dive again, deeper than the previous low.

Kids these days.  
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1000
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.  

Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?



The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage.  People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market.  But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time.  When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much.  When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly.




In my post above here:  

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5993520

I am describing why I think that exchanges set prices and that whale manipulation of prices is taking place on exchanges and that there is an incentive to manipulate prices - even if the big purchases are taking place outside of exchanges.









legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Now is a good time to go onto Bitbet and bet 'No' the price of BTC will not go under $400 before June. good dds too!
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):

                    !   Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !                     
EXCHANGE            ! 03/23 !  03/24 !  03/25 !  03/26 !  03/27 !  03/28 !  03/29 !  03/30 ! Currencies considered

BSTP Bitstamp       |  6.10 |  13.67 |   8.11 |  10.31 |  49.21 |  34.96 |   7.45 |  31.44 | USD(w,c)             
BFNX Bitfinex       |  4.83 |   9.28 |   4.90 |   7.65 |  41.02 |  35.99 |   4.64 |  26.15 | USD(w,c)             
BTCE BTC-e          |  2.43 |   6.35 |   4.99 |   3.49 |  20.81 |  17.79 |   4.03 |  23.58 | EUR,RUB,USD(w)(1)   
LAKE LakeBTC        |  4.01 |   3.48 |   3.79 |   3.61 |   3.62 |   3.84 |   4.16 |   3.82 | USD(c)               

SUBSUBTOTAL         | 17.37 |  32.78 |  21.79 |  25.06 | 114.66 |  92.58 |  20.28 |  84.99 |                     

KRAK Kraken         |  0.29 |   0.88 |   0.70 |   0.80 |   2.23 |   1.27 |   0.45 |   1.41 | EUR,USD(c)(2)       
BTDE Bitcoin.DE     |  0.18 |   0.48 |   0.28 |   0.32 |   0.98 |   0.48 |   0.23 |   0.84 | EUR(w,c)             
HITB HitBTC         |  0.03 |   0.04 |   0.04 |   0.05 |   0.38 |   0.39 |   0.11 |   0.72 | USD(c)               
CVIX CaVirtEx       |  0.08 |   0.34 |   0.13 |   0.13 |   0.63 |   0.35 |   0.07 |   0.59 | CAD(w,c)             
BCUX Bitcurex       |  0.08 |   0.23 |   0.12 |   0.20 |   0.64 |   0.50 |   0.14 |   0.58 | EUR,PLN(c)           
LBTC LocalBitcoins  |  0.37 |   1.04 |   1.14 |   0.99 |   1.10 |   1.13 |   0.68 |   0.51 | (c)(3)               
ANEX AsiaNexgen     |  0.52 |   0.78 |   0.44 |   0.82 |   1.01 |   0.92 |   0.50 |   0.28 | HKD(c)               
BCTR BitcoinCentral |  0.02 |   0.09 |   0.04 |   0.07 |   0.31 |   0.15 |   0.07 |   0.22 | EUR(c)               
CPBX CampBX         |  0.05 |   0.07 |   0.03 |   0.04 |   0.23 |   0.15 |   0.03 |   0.16 | USD(w,c)             
JUST Justcoin       |  0.01 |   0.04 |   0.06 |   0.06 |   0.11 |   0.08 |   0.03 |   0.10 | EUR,NOK,USD(c)       
BMKS BTCMarkets     |   .   |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.02 |   0.13 |   0.02 |   0.03 |   0.06 | AUD(c)               
BMPL BitMarket.PL   |   .   |   0.02 |   0.03 |   0.03 |   0.06 |   0.05 |   0.02 |   0.06 | PLN(c)               
MCBT MercadoBitcoin |  0.02 |   0.06 |   0.05 |   0.03 |   0.18 |   0.11 |   0.03 |   0.04 | BRL(c)               
BT2C Bit2C          |  0.03 |   0.03 |   0.04 |   0.02 |   0.06 |   0.05 |   0.01 |   0.03 | ILS(c)               
BTNZ BitNZ          |   .   |   0.02 |   0.01 |   0.02 |   0.04 |   0.01 |   0.03 |   0.03 | NZD(c)               
BITX BitX           |   .   |   0.03 |   0.01 |   0.02 |   0.02 |   0.02 |    .   |   0.02 | ZAR(c)               
FYSE FYB-SE         |  0.01 |   0.02 |   0.02 |   0.03 |   0.07 |   0.02 |   0.01 |   0.02 | SEK(c)               
FYSG FYB-SG         |  0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |    .   |   0.07 |   0.03 |   0.01 |   0.02 | SGD(c)               
ROCK RockTrading    |  0.01 |   0.05 |   0.02 |   0.03 |   0.06 |   0.02 |   0.02 |   0.02 | EUR(c)               
BCID Bitcoin.CO.ID  |  0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 |   0.01 | IDR(c)               

SUBSUBTOTAL         |  1.72 |   4.25 |   3.19 |   3.69 |   8.32 |   5.76 |   2.48 |   5.72 |                     

SUBTOTAL            | 19.09 |  37.03 |  24.98 |  28.75 | 122.98 |  98.34 |  22.76 |  90.71 |                     

HUBI Huobi          | 18.00 |  73.60 |  56.50 |  91.50 | 213.00 | 185.00 |  33.10 |  92.10 | CNY(w)               
OKCO OKCoin         | 35.90 |  82.30 |  92.60 | 104.00 | 283.00 | 251.00 |  69.60 |  86.80 | CNY(w)               
BTCC BTC-China      |  1.57 |   4.84 |   2.28 |   2.90 |  13.64 |   8.88 |   1.51 |   4.91 | CNY(w,c)             
BTER Bter           |  0.28 |   0.47 |   0.32 |   0.39 |   0.77 |   0.47 |   0.33 |   0.39 | CNY(w)               

SUBTOTAL            | 55.75 | 161.21 | 151.70 | 198.79 | 510.41 | 445.35 | 104.54 | 184.20 |                     

TOTAL               | 74.84 | 198.24 | 176.68 | 227.54 | 633.39 | 543.69 | 127.30 | 274.91 |                     

NOTES:

(1) The USD volumes for BTC-e obtained from Bitcoincharts are consistently smaller than those obtained through Bitcoinwisdom. Using the latter.
(2) Bitcoinwisdom lists only BTC/EUR for Kraken, not BTC/USD.
(3) Bitcoincharts lists Localbitcoins with many currencies, most of which appear to have negligible volume.  This line counts only AUD,BRL,CAD,CHF,CZK,DKK,EUR,GBP,RUB,SEK,THB,USD.

All numbers were collected by hand or copy-paste from the sites http://bitcoinwisdom.com (w) and http://bitcoincharts.com (c). Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that the same period may span part of day 01/14 or part of day 01/16 in your local time zone.)

WARNING: There are at least five additional large exchanges in China that are not on this table because they are not covered by Bitcoinwisdom: FxBTC, ChBTC, BTCTrade, BTC100, and BTC38.  Together they may have as much volume as Huobi or OKCoin.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
this is the best day Ive had for ages, the rally is moving effortlessly, like a knife through butter. I think ol' Bitcoin is back!

and big orders chasing the price action! it's on baby!
hero member
Activity: 968
Merit: 624
Still a manic miner
i see chineses buying like mad.. check Huobi  Shocked getting ready for another dumpity dump??
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

I agree with your overall sentiment.. you are correct; however, each of us get into an investment at a different stage, and based on such, we may engage in slightly different behaviors and investment strategies.
...

True about the different times.  I did pay attention to the price fairly keenly when I was in buying mode.

I only started buying at $16-ish because I was doing something else when the 2011 spike happened and the price had dropped from around the $20 level by the time I got exchanges figured out and funded.  So, I was kind of lucky in a way.  I got a little frustrated and decided to put more in fiat terms at risk the deeper I got into the red.  I had one more 'double down' planned if we got well below $2.00 but we never did.  I told myself that the $2.00 was a 'second chance' for us newbies.  In the end it looks like I was right though it was more incidental than a result of some special insight.

From the get-go I planed my exit to be magnitude based rather than time based.  Get back my initial outlay if/when I hit 10x and get back some fun-money if/when 100x.  We did hit those targets which was fun so I cannot say I didn't spend the years watching the charts.  Again, though, I was careful to never get into a situation where I was forced into taking a particular action so I was more relaxed than I might have been.




Yes...   

Certainly, neither of us seem to be asserting any omniscience, here. 

However, I think that your description plays into my theory quite a bit, that an investor can rest much more assured when s/he is in the black rather than being in the red.  The more in the black or the less in the red, the more assured s/he can rest.

Since BTC prices have been downtrending since I began to invest, I had been engaging in a buing strategy that continuously caused me to have to monitor BTC prices b/c I have been continuing to attempt to buy during dips.. and then BTC prices get lower and get lower.. (and I make some mistakes, here and there) and anyhow, I started with $1,500 invested at $1,200 per BTC (which was only 1.24BTC).  My anticipated BTC investment budget was to invest $30k between late November 2013 and June-ish 2014 and to attempt to study the matter as I was engaging in a hybrid form of dollar cost averaging.  I could have invested most of that 30K on the front end in 11/13, but I already realized that BTC had been on an amazing bull run.. and front loading was likely NOT going to be a good idea.. but I wanted to get some skin in the BTC game and to get started in case the prices went up even more (which was and remains possible that prices could go up rather than down - even at ATH prices). 

Anyhow, currently, I already have about 30K invested in at an average of $662.. which is about 45.5 BTC.... 

My next buy point was going to be $430-ish.. if BTC prices would have gone there within the next 24 hours.. but maybe we are NOT going to go there any time soon... who knows?...

Anyhow, in the last few hours my amount in the red went from negative 35% to negative 28%... and if we had gone to below $400, my BTC portfolio would have been about negative 41% (absent additional buys).  For me, it feels much better to be at negative 28% (even without having more BTC in the portfolio) than it would be to be at negative 41% with some additional BTC in my portfolio.  That is just my current thinking b/c I am about two months ahead of my anticipated investment amounts.  I will feel even better as the price increases or my average buy-in price comes down. I may NOT buy as much absent dips, and when there are dips, I feel that i need to buy, especially when my portfolio is lingering in the red.



legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283

I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price. 

Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?



The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage.  People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market.  But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time.  When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much.  When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly.

member
Activity: 85
Merit: 10
If you dont like something change it

...then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....


I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip.

dude look at the price action.

by a fair chance, this guy might be picking an absolute bottom, and you would advise him to spend his capital on holiday.



haha LOL



I think CoinDox thought that he was registering for the skiing in the Alps forum, and accidentally registered here.  So maybe we can excuse him for his being in the wrong forum?   Cheesy






member
Activity: 85
Merit: 10
If you dont like something change it
CCMF.  Party insiders at Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau have confirmed that they are expecting to see a huge upswing in both price and volume this week.  Once again thanks to Proudhon for the tip.  Cool

Probably not , gonna take a good hit tomorrow and gonna be unstable to the 14-15 of april when the PBOC closes shop on btc accounts, then its gonna start to leve off properly
KFR
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
Per ardua ad luna
CCMF.  Party insiders at Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau have confirmed that they are expecting to see a huge upswing in both price and volume this week.  Once again thanks to Proudhon for the tip.  Cool
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
http://orymh.bandcamp.com/track/the-bitcoin-rally-song

W00t! 

Bears are in retreat. We have an actual rally going on. now all we need is some volume to give this thing momentum.

Sounds like the SID chip in my old commodore 64.

Here's what we used to play when fishing was good (commercial fishing in Alaska):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEZtII8rt_Y&feature=kp

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