Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28707. (Read 26708726 times)

Did months ago, in terms of troll skills she/he pales in comparison to Fonzie, he's my favourite!

Explanation

I believe that the two rallies in 2013 were caused by the opening of the Chinese market, which created huge demand for BTC and sucked coins out of the Western markets.  If the ban is real (I am not convinced yet) most of the coins in the Chinese exchange accounts may be moved to the non-Chinese exchanges.  So I think this may well happen:

The black line is an exponential fitted by eyeball in log scale to the Bitstamp prices before April 2013.

But I think this it is just a possibility, I would not bet on it.  It is hard to guess what the big holders and investors will do: whether they will buy all the Chinese bitcoins, or dump those they already have.

Now you are not in denial anymore, good bull. Other BULLS ARE NOT HERE?

I know better trust me. Bitcoin will NOT survive. 2015 and 2016 are slow bitcoin agony while OTHER system will emerge.

My predictions from yesterday were kinda not good as I see...

Instead of go up, price went down ... ~35$ ...

And no money to buy cheap coins! such sad.

What are you doing here losing your time on something that you think will fail? Trying to aware us??

It is not sure Bitcoin will get a lion share in the financial sector or in international transactions but when it will the price will be 4 digits in 2014 USD and probably 5digits in nominal terms

Until then it may go down more

Finally, some more the of high quality analysis we've learned to demand on these forums.

Bitcoin is crashing to 400$ this is obvious, whatever they said bitcoin is doomed to fail

Huge dark buy order on Finex. Has already eaten a few hundred [email protected]$
-> Great chance to sell without slippage 

Yep, kudos to you both, comrades.

Honestly? Around 50-100$, if China would be out of the game completly.
8 Mio $ on a slovenian exchange is not enough to keep the price at these levels

Genuinely interested, what do people think will happen to the price in the next 3 months if the Chinese news is real?

Thanks for indulging me!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indulgence

I also think that most of the coins in china are offshore accounts trading there because of fee structure. just means volume will go down on huobi and btcchina and move to other exchanges. Mas exodus of BTC being bought to transfer to bitstamp, etc... Even if this news is confirmed it wont be as bad as everyone is thinking. Plus Hong Kong though part of china, is really almost outside mainland china's laws, and singapore, india, australia, africa etc... are coming online.

This China ban news is starting to get a bit old, is there a way to get things over with and be done with it?

I want more diverse bad news for the downtrend till around April.

Btw I have been wondering for a while, there seem to be a lot of people who are convinced that the Chinese just about own bitcoin, but what actual proof is there? The exchanges operate with zero fees and they have been caught sticking on extra zeros. Add to that that there are around 250k btc-addresses with more than 1 BTC worlwide, I don't see how that equals to millions of Chinese btc-holders.

Breaking News: PBOC is the New Mark Karpeles 

so last week when the bank said that it was false rumors, that was an early april fools joke?

china wtf get your story straight

Is it really hard to understand these simple concepts:

Shutdown of an important market = Loss of demand caused by closing an important channel of incoming flow = Price lowers
Shutdown of an important market, together with the loss of customer funds = Bigger loss of demand, caused by closing an important channel + loss of trust towards the entire market system = Price lowers even more

THE thing to consider with cryptos are the markets. How many markets there are in different geographical places and how comfortable do people feel in using them. This is the main factor that creates demand, so it's the most important factor to consider, since supply is relatively stable and predictable. And you can't understand this aspect by drawing lines in graphs. You could get better predictions by using volume in that equation, not just draw a line between bottoms and tops. But volumes can be faked in crypto, so it's not solid either. Stable trends only apply to markets that are very stable. Where things like 4 seasons of the year or restrictions of the law affect the price in the repeating pattern. Drawing lines in the crypto market is insanity, because the entire market is based on speculation and the entire environment is quickly changing. You have to think on your feet to trade effectively, not just draw lines. I think that the mindless line drawers are the reason on why there is so much uncertainty and confusion. They are leading the people to look at things that doesn't matter and then again everyone will be surprised that why didn't it go like this. And always after the line drawer predictions didn't come through, then they begin acting like they knew about this all along, and the lemmings forgot how certain they were about their lines just couple of weeks ago.

It's harsh, but great indicators during the first China crash and the Gox crash.