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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28932. (Read 26609927 times)

legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.



will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  Roll Eyes


Done!


wrong number I guess, because the price is still going down.
full member
Activity: 147
Merit: 100
Realbitcoin.info

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.



will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  Roll Eyes


Done!
donator
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
-Bitcoin & Ripple-

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.



will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  Roll Eyes

stop dreaming this is crashing
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.



will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  Roll Eyes
full member
Activity: 862
Merit: 100
There was 4,500 new BTT registrations yesterday. We just beat the March 7 high of 2,200. To put that into perspective BTT usually gets 500-700 registrations per day.

The jump in users suggest an interest in Bitcoin. New market players will enter. Fundamentals override technicals again. Value BTC with history of userbase rather than price history because it is the number of users who drive the price up in the first place. It is a very good indicator because new users take time to learn about Bitcoin before investing thus not pumping up the price immediately. It also gives us a measurement of interest in Bitcoin.
BTT = Bitcointalk?

Yes, please clarify what BTT is.  

Regarding bitcointalk.org, if you click on the "MEMBERS" link, you'll see there are currently 271,709 members (a lot of sock-puppet/troll accounts, but still).  Is there a way to get the stats on membership vs time?  Is anyone tracking this?  It would be interesting to plot this curve....

Yes, Bitcointalk. You can see it for yourself on the main page. Scroll down to the bottom.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women

If the ratio of moneyflows to market price does not change, the cycles will continue unabated.  Their remarkable regularity is likely to result in attempts to front-run the cycle, and hence accelerate it.  That may also tend to blunt the extremes a bit, smoothing them over a diversity of participants.  Persistently retaining value will be likely to incentivize greater moneyflows, however, now that the financial world has actually caught wind of crypto.
Maybe that's what is happening now. According to the pattern, there must be a rise now, so whales are buying. But they are doing it too soon, there is no real grassroot push yet, so the price slides back.  

That's exactly what's happening now and anyone not front-running the cycles is just giving money away. For example, the weekend dip is an intentional attempt to incite panic and scoop up cheap coins. this weekend was moderately successful, but the probability that the price will recover above $650 in the next 24 hours is significantly higher than 50/50. I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches $670 tomorrow.

Yer not gonna see a grassroots push until after we hit ~$750 again. It doesn't matter. There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Who's there?

If the ratio of moneyflows to market price does not change, the cycles will continue unabated.  Their remarkable regularity is likely to result in attempts to front-run the cycle, and hence accelerate it.  That may also tend to blunt the extremes a bit, smoothing them over a diversity of participants.  Persistently retaining value will be likely to incentivize greater moneyflows, however, now that the financial world has actually caught wind of crypto.
Maybe that's what is happening now. According to the pattern, there must be a rise now, so whales are buying. But they are doing it too soon, there is no real grassroot push yet, so the price slides back.  
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I have not seen evidence of fake traffic at Huobi, but I suspect that there may be fake traffic at OKCoin.

First, traffic at OKCoin slows down at night, but does not stop completely like at Huobi; there is a steady backgrount traffic 24/7.

Second, most Huobi transactions occur randomly at the two ends of the current spread, as one would expect from buyers and sellers independently moving to meet each other's position; whereas many of those at OKCoin seem to occur in at random places in the middle of the real spread, as if the buyer and seller had a rendez-vous there.

OKCoin also seems to have an excess of small transactions.  (I should make a histogram to confirm that.)

Here is a plot of a few minutes's worth of transactions.  Each dot is a transaction (except that transactions with same timestamp and price may hide each other).  Dot size is proportional to BTC volume.


Am I seeing things?



I'm seeing dinosaurs, too.....   or maybe train cars being assembled in the form of a carrousel?  Kind of like a circus.

I do NOT claim to know very much about how one exchange may differ from another or the way that a bot may work based on the way it interfaces with the exchange.  However, couldn't some of the explanation of differences be based on how bots may need to be programmed differently based on the exchange rules, fees and maybe based on times of greater or lesser volatility?  

But, yes, I can understand why you may consider certain patterns to infer that the trades may NOT really be taking place b/c they do NOT make sense to be occurring under those circumstances... even if it were due to the programing parameters of bots... that are paying nearly zero fees.










legendary
Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
Is there a way to estimate, from the blockchain or other sources, the number and size of bitcoin transactions that are payments for goods and services, rather than due to speculation, investment, hot/cold storage transfers, etc?


I'm not sure you can separate the transactions that way unless you can identify which addresses belong to who. A certain amount of information can be deduced by searching for polls in the forums. I found this one which got a few votes, although it says nothing about the size of the transactions. No doubt some of the spending was for goods and services related to mining: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=196955.0;viewResults
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Is there a way to estimate, from the blockchain or other sources, the number and size of bitcoin transactions that are payments for goods and services, rather than due to speculation, investment, hot/cold storage transfers, etc?

legendary
Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
There was 4,500 new BTT registrations yesterday. We just beat the March 7 high of 2,200. To put that into perspective BTT usually gets 500-700 registrations per day.

The jump in users suggest an interest in Bitcoin.

Dinosaurs are always popular with kids.  They may even trump cute puppies.  Wink

In my supermarket, in the aisle that sells nappies, formula, kids snacks etc. there is a sign indicating these items and at the bottom of the list it says "Dinosaurs-->". Now that's good marketing  Smiley

edit: haven't found one yet...
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
There was 4,500 new BTT registrations yesterday. We just beat the March 7 high of 2,200. To put that into perspective BTT usually gets 500-700 registrations per day.

The jump in users suggest an interest in Bitcoin.

Dinosaurs are always popular with kids.  They may even trump cute puppies.  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1025
Merit: 1000
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
I have not seen evidence of fake traffic at Huobi, but I suspect that there may be fake traffic at OKCoin.

First, traffic at OKCoin slows down at night, but does not stop completely like at Huobi; there is a steady backgrount traffic 24/7.

Second, most Huobi transactions occur randomly at the two ends of the current spread, as one would expect from buyers and sellers independently moving to meet each other's position; whereas many of those at OKCoin seem to occur in at random places in the middle of the real spread, as if the buyer and seller had a rendez-vous there.

OKCoin also seems to have an excess of small transactions.  (I should make a histogram to confirm that.)

Here is a plot of a few minutes's worth of transactions.  Each dot is a transaction (except that transactions with same timestamp and price may hide each other).  Dot size is proportional to BTC volume.


Am I seeing things?



sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
So we are still going down because Gox moved some coins and an idiot reported pulled some facts out of her ass? That's all it takes?
Rough times ahead.


Price slowly approaching my buy orders...  Cool
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
So we are still going down because Gox moved some coins and an idiot reporter pulled some facts out of her ass? That's all it takes?
Rough times ahead.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
There was 4,500 new BTT registrations yesterday. We just beat the March 7 high of 2,200. To put that into perspective BTT usually gets 500-700 registrations per day.

The jump in users suggest an interest in Bitcoin. New market players will enter. Fundamentals override technicals again. Value BTC with history of userbase rather than price history because it is the number of users who drive the price up in the first place. It is a very good indicator because new users take time to learn about Bitcoin before investing thus not pumping up the price immediately. It also gives us a measurement of interest in Bitcoin.
BTT = Bitcointalk?

Yes, please clarify what BTT is.  

Regarding bitcointalk.org, if you click on the "MEMBERS" link, you'll see there are currently 271,709 members (a lot of sock-puppet/troll accounts, but still).  Is there a way to get the stats on membership vs time?  Is anyone tracking this?  It would be interesting to plot this curve....
legendary
Activity: 1844
Merit: 1338
XXXVII Fnord is toast without bread
sr. member
Activity: 293
Merit: 250
Classic dead cat bounce showing on the 1hr. Last Monday's pennant isn't looking too successful now.

Next Monday, 2bit is going to release info on foundation members. $180 by Friday, Adam?


Yeah, worst case scenario of news could cause a dramatic decrease in prices, but 70%, seems doubtful.  Maybe we may get another flash crash into the upper $400s, but even that seems questionable, if we do NOT even know the DAMNING news.


implying that anyone cares about the 2bittrash, his 5 minutes of internet fame were over a week or 2 ago.

Maybe you are correct, and maybe, just maybe, 2bit is ONLY an attention whore....   I kind of doubt that.  There may be some there, there?  It seems that we cannot know for sure (or condemn 2bit), until we see the presentation of the DAMNING evidence.

$480 by Monday night.
$800 by Friday morning.

Based on numbers that I completely pulled out of my ass using absolutely no graphs, charts, or history. And that's probably as good of a guess as anyone trying to predict the Bitcoin market with all those fancy tools.

Certainly, I like specifics... and thanks for that.  You are suggesting an immediate negative reaction to the 2 bit news, but we will be over it by Friday.  I tend to think that we can make 800 by friday, only if there is NOT any kind of negative reaction to the news.  If we get a negative reaction, like you predict (down to 480), then we could NOT make anymore than upper $600s by Friday... I'm kind of pulling this out of my ass, too...  Wink



It would be funny if everyone reacted opposite to what we expect from the news, like the other day when that news release was supposed to be "good" news but the price dropped during and after it instead because it wasn't nearly as significant as it was hyped to be.
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