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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28972. (Read 26619954 times)

legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...

Unfortunately the only side filling up is the ask end. Bids have fallen below 16m and asks are above 20k now.
legendary
Activity: 2186
Merit: 1213
very lame at the moment
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
hm
orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Chinese Slumber Dinosaur prediction for Friday Mar/07

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-03-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3899 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 637 USD.

Huobi

The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta rectangle.  The blue rectangle is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray rectangles are the previous ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume Vh for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.

The Huobi prediction results from fitting a shifted decaying exponential p(d) = A+B*Q**(d-04), where d is the day of the month, to the last three Glyptodon Points --- namely 4040, 3956, and 3917 CNY on Mar/04--06.  The fitted coefficients are A = 3833.26, B = 156.74, and Q is 0.464.

Bitstamp

The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, lines, and rectangles are Huobi's Slumber Points, dinosaurs, trends, and predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-05, 22:56 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3872 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3917 CNY
Error: 45 CNY (~7 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 633 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 657 USD
Error: 24 USD

NOTE: D major

hero member
Activity: 503
Merit: 500
BTC's obsession with 666 is a little disturbing at this point Cheesy.
legendary
Activity: 1133
Merit: 1163
Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
aaaaand it's back at 666
member
Activity: 66
Merit: 10
However the sort of audit we are discussing here verifies the viability/solvency of the institution and I don't see too many banks publishing that kind of information.  Where can I see that my bank can honour all deposits if the account holders choose to withdraw ?

They sure do: the balance sheet will show deposits under liabilities.


legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
There's no single reason why anyone should think to sell if Nakamoto is ousted.

I was just thinking how crazy this is for press!  The press love having someone to interrogate.  I feel bad for "Nakamoto" regardless of who he is, but this is on every major news site right now and that can only bring more interest in BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 2282
Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist
EDIT: removed the double spaces after punctuation.

I loled
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
There's no single reason why anyone should think to sell if Nakamoto is ousted.
member
Activity: 87
Merit: 10
I was wondering why people were saying "Dumps, quick quick, Satoshi got unmasked" (explain me why would knowing the initial creator of a protocol would change anything about this protocol and its weaks and strengths?) aaaaand price charts didnt really moved.

Or maybe the "dump incoming" guys were talking about those idiot press doing misleading headlines and it would lead people to panic sell ?

I consider this market almost no-reaction to be a good sign for bitcoin health, people are getting used to those bitcoin-is-bugged-sell-everything news.
full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 100
The real story here is media irresponsibility. Nothing new since we've all seen the very same irresponsibility in the form of FUD and sensationalism.

MOVING ON
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Please point out how your (or the wikipedia) definition of an "audit" differs from the documents demonstrated above.

An audit validates a financial statement.  Where is that statement?

"Since audit reports tend to be addressed to the current shareholders, .."

I understand your point but unless you're a shareholder (or investor) then you don't get to see the report.  This is no different to any company, publicly traded companies publish financial reports and privately held companies don't.

However the sort of audit we are discussing here verifies the viability/solvency of the institution and I don't see too many banks publishing that kind of information.  Where can I see that my bank can honour all deposits if the account holders choose to withdraw ?

Quote

To prove solvency, an exchange must basically show that (A+B)-(X+Y) is positive, or at least not too negative; where A and B its assets in BTC and national currencies, X and Y are the client account balances in BTC and national currencies, say converted at current prices; or, better than A-X is not negative, AND B-Y is not negative. (The math should include all assets and debts, including bank loans, but let's simplify for this discussion).


I see your point but I'm going to pick on your formulae and suggest for an exchange to be solvent A-X should be positive and so should B-Y.
Essentially all account holders should be able to withdraw 100% of their funds at any time in the currency the balance is held in.

Any assets/liabilities (bank loans, investments, etc etc) relate to the profitability of the company and is a separate balance sheet.

Quote

By moving the coins, Bitstamp "proved" that (in december) A = 194,933 BTC.  (It did not prove such thing actually; do I need to tell you why? But let's pretend it did.)


They proved they have access to the private keys of wallets totalling 194,933 BTC.
We have their word (that trust thing we do with banks) that this represents "A" and is the balance held to honour customer accounts.

Quote

The letter from the auditor says that A-X is positive.  How did they get X?


I would hope that they found X by adding up all the customer balances where the currency is BTC.
They would also need to account for trades sitting on the exchange of course but this should be trivial.

Quote
When Antonopoulos "audited" Coinbase, he used the value of X that Coinbase gave him. (That is what I understood, and I cannot imagine how he could have got it except through them.  Correct me if I am wrong.)   

I don't see why Coinbase is relevant and I'd rather not change subject if that's ok with you.

Quote
I have seen some audit reports before, including from the "inside", and I think I can tell when they are stretching the words to cover the holes.  What I read in that terse letter is that they verified A as above, but (like Antonopoulos) they trusted the value of X that Bitstamp provided them. 

In that case your personal experience is being factored in here and that is understandable and a personal choice much akin to which bank we trust with our money.  Personally I think this will be covered by regulation in future and bitcoin exchanges (or any companies which hold customer balances) will be regulated to require that they must honour all customer balances.
This will be an interesting development and can only be a good thing since I don't believe the banks are regulated that tightly

Quote
The letter does not mention B and Y.

But they did.... well for USD at least so I admit there's no mention of the EUR balance but I think that's their primary Fiat balances covered.

"The report identified that Bitstamp held 100% of validated BTC balance and USD funds."

Anyway.... that's me done for now Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
so the idiot bitcoin market don´t even care if its founder is found or found to be dumpfounded ? so bitcoin was founded to be dump?ed...right on right on Angry

How hurt is your butt?

Hehe, he is getting desperate, isn't he?

That shit won't drop, and won't drop, and won't drop. Grrrrrr  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 100
I can't wait to see this turn out like the HUVr Board.

As not a single fuck was given by the market, let's move on already...
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
"Satoshi just asked where the toilet is. I hope that he won´t take a dump"

hilarious! Grin
legendary
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
I am happy to see that the market is not moving because of these "news". Bitcoin people are still not easily fooled!!!

Congrats everyone!  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
so the idiot bitcoin market don´t even care if its founder is found or found to be dumpfounded ? so bitcoin was founded to be dump?ed...right on right on Angry

How hurt is your butt?

The only idiots are the people who think Satoshi Nakamoto is his/her real name.
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