Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29177. (Read 26607997 times)

It's the type of outcome that had someone on here proposed it as a theory, they would've been sent to the internet naughty step for sheer outlandishness.

I still feel it's possible that the coins' fate is tied up in criminal investigations or technical mediocrity rather than having vaporised completely but anything is now possible...





 

What do you think, then?  Maybe we may crash in the upper $400s... once again.. and then slowly move upwards... until we are over this GOX situation... actually the GOX situation is one that is still quite filled with speculation... there is NOT really a solid indication, yet b/c once there is a solid indications, the market is going to move either up or down... but ultimately it will be moving up... .. just may be stalled a little bit before getting there... depending on the travesty of the situation.

Bitcoiners lack so much sleep that they don't need anything to fail down when they decide to finally hit the bed 

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday Feb/27

This was the seventh consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the seven days Feb/20--26 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

With these exceptionally high volumes, the volume V_h in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC has been above 500 BTC almost every night.  By the criterion I have been using, those points should all be considered False Slumber Points and hence ignored; which would leave me with no data and hence no prediction.

Therefore I am experimenting with a different criterion, namely redefining a Slumber Point to be True if S = V_h/V_d < 0.005, where V_d is the total volume of the period 00:00--23:59 UTC of the same UTC date (08:00 am to 07:59 am local time).

This change only affects the classification of a few Slumber Points. In particular, Feb/24 and Feb/25, which I had classified as False before, now are classified as True.  For today Feb/26, Huobi's volume V_h was 1305 BTC, and the daily volume V_d was 250.64 kBTC, giving S = 5.21 --- hence a False Slumber Point.

Now there is a clear but strongly "bearish" trend defined by the last three True points, Feb/23--25, skipping Feb/26.  The equation is p = 9881.67 - 263*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February  It seems too pessimistic, but rules are rules and traight lines are straight lines, so:

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-02-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2781 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 454 USD.

For Bitstamp, as usual, I used Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

For those who prefer a bullish prediction, I can also ignore the Feb/24 and Feb/25 points, and instead extrapolate the old trendline (which began on Feb/10, and appears to be a shifted slowly decaying exponential):

Huobi's alternate predicted price: 3802 CNY.
Bitstamp's alternate predicted price: 621 USD.

In the following chart, the bearish trendline and prediction are in orange and strong blue, whereas the bullish one is in olive-gray and light blue.


NOTE: Don't get excited yet.  The value "20,000" next to the blue rectangle belongs to the scale of the volume plot, not of the price plot.

Did you buy 1 bitcoin yet? That would make for some excitement

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/26

Prediction posted on: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 03:47 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Well, I am tired of being the only bull in this thread

Huobi's predicted price: 3804 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3543 CNY
Error: 261 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 589 USD
Error:  33 USD

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp returned to near the normal value R = 6.12 (actually a bit lower, closer to 6.00).  It seems that arbitrage trading has been restored.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

Explanation

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Think of it as the nightly chamomille tea of this thread, it will bore you to sleep.

I know we are all happy that Gox is gone, but am I the only one really in awe at what happened?

Im guessing when a lot of people predicted Gox' death it was by them losing market share and closing up shop... not by losing $400m USD of user money.. just crazy! All this time, we've been in awe at the incompetence and BS.. And this is the underlying reason. I almost feel bad for Karpeles. I'd have to see the final story, but in the version i'm imagining.. the guy is just dumb, not a criminal.

Then again, we dont have the fully story.. I'm just curious if anyone feels the same shock as I do that they really are.. finally, gone?

Be wary of the two-bit idiot guy. Just found some CONFIRMED bullshit in his gox blogs.

He says in this post from Wednesday 26th http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77920927310/i-retract-nothing-i-have-written-so-far-regarding-mt


But if you look at the numbers from the BIT thread you'll see that they've bought over 500 bitcoins this week.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5398518

The bull case is being shouted down, but not by quality arguments. Look at the chart. I'd like to get a TA analysis by someone like TERA or another respected chartist. It looks ready to break out to the upside to me.

We've done much more than point and laugh. He's not up for learning. At some point there isn't much more that can be done but get a good laugh and move on while he stands there braying.

Good post by Kraken CEO - http://jesse.forthewin.com/blog/2014/02/unilateral-statement-regarding-fucked-up-shit-and-the-greater-good.html?cpm=329

Precisely what Mark wants you to believe. Stop drinking the koolaid.

What is a realistic target value right now before we see things level out?

I wonder if that would be possible... When gox was 90%, if Mark just made a bunch of trades without proper funds, say.. buying millions of dollars of bitcoin... it could trigger the media attention needed to help fuel (but not sustain) it..

So maybe, we could be as high as we are thanks to Mr. Karpeles convincing the market this is the proper price.

/tinfoil hat

You cant break down the whole price development down to Gox speculation, the Bitcoin industry is so much more than Gox by now.

This is funny. Half the traders are expecting a crash and half are expecting a rocket ride so of course we're going sideways. But fiat is piling up on Stamp and it's only a matter of time before somebody blinks. 

he is never going to clearly say they "lost private keys". at the very best you will get something like "the coins are irretrievable", which just means nothing.

edit: or something like he already told us about "coins being stolen because of malleability issue".. but hey, who could have done it that easily and at such scale?