Observing $19,433 & twiddling my thumbs during an expected, long term boring crab market. I wish bitcoin would break up hard or even in the opposite direction so I can gobble up loads of cheap coins (obviously preference is up).
It’s just, the current price does nothing for any of us. There is no way I am selling a single satoshi at this price. I have bought a big % of what I sold in 2021 back already but I am sitting on a pile of fiat now, unwilling to buy more. It either dumps to make me buy more or I keep that fiat.
So any way yeah, just willing bitcoin to do SOMETHING so I can do something positive
Feels like we’ve been stuck between $18,000 & $23,500 for ages. This is not unexpected though, the way it should go if we are repeating past cycles is, one more dump, an awful capitulation to about $12,000 to $14,000 which causes suicidal thoughts & more mindrust’s. Mainstream media says it’s over, everybody thinks we’re going to $0. This is what forms cycle bottoms, could happen between now & mid 2023. Then we start to slowly climb up, maybe reach the halving in mid 2024 at $30,000 to $40,000. Still boring but with a slight upwards trajectory we plod to the end of 2024. 2025 comes & we start to break upwards, memes & green dildos everywhere we see a new ATH. Couple of pullbacks mid 2025 but then we power to over $150,000 by the end of 2025 as the cycle top & then the cycle starts all over again.
Are you ready?
It’s just, the current price does nothing for any of us. There is no way I am selling a single satoshi at this price. I have bought a big % of what I sold in 2021 back already but I am sitting on a pile of fiat now, unwilling to buy more. It either dumps to make me buy more or I keep that fiat.
So any way yeah, just willing bitcoin to do SOMETHING so I can do something positive
Feels like we’ve been stuck between $18,000 & $23,500 for ages. This is not unexpected though, the way it should go if we are repeating past cycles is, one more dump, an awful capitulation to about $12,000 to $14,000 which causes suicidal thoughts & more mindrust’s. Mainstream media says it’s over, everybody thinks we’re going to $0. This is what forms cycle bottoms, could happen between now & mid 2023. Then we start to slowly climb up, maybe reach the halving in mid 2024 at $30,000 to $40,000. Still boring but with a slight upwards trajectory we plod to the end of 2024. 2025 comes & we start to break upwards, memes & green dildos everywhere we see a new ATH. Couple of pullbacks mid 2025 but then we power to over $150,000 by the end of 2025 as the cycle top & then the cycle starts all over again.
Are you ready?
Yeah, this seems like a consensus for most...which makes it unlikely to happen.
Personally, I see two other possibilities, depending on overall macro:
1. More likely time-wise (Scenario 1): Despite their current pronouncements, Fed is going to pivot at the end of 2022 or by the end of Q1 2023 and this would mark the start of the bull in bitcoin. From what price? Unknowable, but your numbers are certainly possible. If this happens as described, we should go close to max long by April 2023 and stay there.
2. Scenario 2: dark times. It's hard to discuss it, but if macro will turn depression-like, bitcoin would (at least initially) turn sideways and/or down and the price could become highly volatile and, basically, random. In this scenario, we are in 2007 and the main volatility is ahead. Yes, BOE made some moves and bought itself time, but as we know from 2007, these "small" moves only work for a limited time duration (the rescue of Countrywide in US in the summer of 2007 did not prevent Bear Stearns and Lehman 6-10 mo later). My allocation of probability to this scenario is still less than 20%, but is rising, unfortunately. In this scenario, the bottom is unpredictable, but once everyone start printing en masse and implement yield control, bitcoin should revitalize and go to ATH, eventually.
