Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29619. (Read 26720615 times)

I never understood why people park their money in ridiculous orders. If, for some reason, bitcoin suddenly jumped up to $1000, I probably wouldn't want a computer automatically filling my order.

About 10k coins added to asks on MtGox >1000

Thanks Adam, that seems to be the most complete story I've seen so far. Unfortunate that they are so quick and often to play the "funding terrorism" card.

(speaking of which, and dragging my own reply off-topic.. but this gives the US the perfect play in terms of their bitcoin hoard. They simply auction off the bitcoin, and a CIA plant will win the bid. They will then use the bitcoin fund a false-flag op and then use this to justify further controls, not just for bitcoin, but for their fiat as well.)

back on topic, regarding this quote "One option FINTRAC listed in the document was to “choke bitcoins oxygen (sic)” by denying Canadians access to the foreign-exchange market, "

That right there makes me think CaVirtex might have the proper business plan moving forward. That statement is pretty much business as usual for Virtex. As far as I know they only offer accounts to Canadian citizens and require driver's license and utility bill as minimum.

Sadly, this also means business as usual for me. I'm pretty sure I will still be able to move bitcoins in and out of btc-e or crypsty for some alt-coin plays, but in terms of fiat exchange directly in and out of my bank, it seems I'll be stuck with Virtex. (That's not exactly a bad thing, I've always had excellent customer service from virtex...I'd love the lower fees other exchanges offer, but I still value the trust factor, moreso now with what's going on at gox. How many of you have spoken with the owner of your exchange over the phone while their kids are screaming playing in the background?)

We're going parabolic..

You make a great point.

I mean there are 2 choices here...either around $600 or $300.

By the looks of it $600 is turning out to be a solid valuation for Bitcoin.

GOX going down like this actually solidifies the true value of Bitcoin.

I appreciate the thoughtful response. Your analysis of Houbi's trading activity is spot on. Do you happen to be able to read/write mandarin?


There is most definitely no validity behind "fake" volume coming out of those exchanges. Yet, the conditions on the exchange that you mention, computer assisted trading, tightly control fiat entry portals, and being isolated from global financial media all lead to blur the real utility (value) of the asset in question its' market participants. Computer assisted trading, especially in a no fee environment, has created a market in which true exchanges of wealth get distorted by a thick layer of mathematical models and relationships. Tight control of money into the system gives banks, and by extension the ruling political party, an effective bargaining chip when innovation and regulation collide, which we see happening all across the globe right now, not just in China. Finally, with the people's consumption of digital information filtered on a daily basis, only a handful of individuals know the reality of the market in which they operate in. So, "fake" volume at Houbi? No, not quite, but distorted, bureaucratically controlled, and fundamentally skewed? Yes, very much so.


I do not even want to get into the issues with the other exchanges at the moment, for that is a whole other can of FUD/WORMS/DoGEs.

To me, the thought that BTC is growing to be largely a Chinese "thing" automatically raises concerns over future of innovation in the space and the underlying utility of the tech from a global perspective. Let's face it, China is not the world leader in open innovation policy.

Anyways, I digress - back to the real world I must

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !
  EXCHANGE   !  02/10 !  02/11 !  02/12 !  02/13 !  02/14 !  02/15 !  02/16 !  02/17 !  02/18 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  71.86 |  40.06 |  15.51 |  28.15 |  63.38 |  20.76 |  26.40 |  19.90 |  14.83 | USD
  BitFinEx   |  41.98 |  39.54 |  12.85 |  17.17 |  53.68 |  10.83 |  16.75 |  15.69 |   8.47 | USD
  BTC-e      |  47.04 |  28.64 |   9.97 |  18.53 |  52.18 |   9.16 |  21.75 |  15.07 |   8.08 | USD,EUR,RUR
  Kraken     |   1.45 |   1.11 |   0.58 |   0.93 |   1.79 |   0.41 |   0.91 |   0.89 |   0.51 | EUR
  Bitcoin.DE |   1.54 |   0.67 |   0.51 |   0.78 |   1.63 |   0.22 |   0.57 |   0.57 |   0.38 | EUR
  CaVirtEx   |   0.77 |   0.53 |   0.29 |   0.41 |   1.16 |   0.15 |   0.15 |   0.15 |   0.21 | CAD
  CampBX     |   0.37 |   0.11 |   0.10 |   0.21 |   0.41 |   0.05 |   0.07 |   0.28 |   0.10 | USD

  SUBTOTAL   | 165.01 | 110.66 |  39.81 |  66.18 | 174.23 |  41.58 |  66.60 |  52.55 |  32.58 |

  Huobi      | 134.09 | 120.08 | 131.86 |  82.39 | 236.27 | 122.80 | 110.57 | 130.41 |  74.04 | CNY
  OKCoin     |  70.49 |  64.22 |  60.79 |  62.49 | 147.26 |  51.45 |  63.63 |  63.05 |  51.46 | CNY
  BTC-China  |  18.23 |  11.17 |  11.01 |   8.02 |  24.87 |   7.55 |   9.08 |   7.86 |   3.86 | CNY
  Bter       |   0.85 |   0.76 |   0.69 |   0.65 |   1.54 |   0.74 |   0.56 |   0.48 |   0.35 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL   | 223.66 | 196.23 | 204.35 | 153.55 | 409.94 | 182.54 | 183.84 | 201.80 | 129.71 |

  MtGOX      |  50.07 |  18.70 |  25.21 |  33.85 |  79.56 |  60.15 | 104.46 |  65.69 |  63.50 | USD,EUR,GBP,AUD,JPY

  TOTAL      | 438.74 | 325.59 | 269.37 | 253.58 | 663.73 | 284.27 | 354.90 | 320.04 | 225.79 |



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

The exchange Bter was added to Bitcoinwisdom's menu on 2014-02-15; its volumes for 02/07 to 02/14 have been added
retroactively to the table.

Coinbase is said to use Bitstamp for currency conversion.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

NOTE: A few days ago, MtGOX has suspended withdrawals of Bitcoins and national currencies.  Therefore it is essentially isolated from other markets, and its price is completely out of the norm.  The exceptional trade volumes above may be meaningless.

Great talk by Andreas Antonopoulos regarding the mess on Gox.

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/e85-mtgox-and-malleability/

I'd like some of whatever you are smoking. 

Hey how do we know that GOX price is the real price of Bitcoin and the other exchanges are actually the ones that are fucked up?

Soo....  after this, CCMF/TDM, I presume.

Thanks!... 

I believe that it is a consensus that regression does not help predicting future stock prices from past prices alone; and the limited analysis that I have done agrees with that. You may have seen my previous posts on the log-Brownian (or geometric Brownian) model; although there are some more sophisticated models, they do not seem to be useful for predictions.

The model above exploits some features specific to Huobi that hopefully will let us get around that limitation.  First, Huobi seems to have little trade by unsupervised robots (which have much more varied behavior than humans, and therefore should be less predictable). Their clients apparently have relatively well-defined demographic profile, and are relatively isolated from the rest of the world in terms of economic news.   And, those clients are trading a single item (Bitcoin) and have a relatively narrow channel for injecting money into the system (local banks)

Also, Huobi has a lot more volume and liquidity than the other exchanges; the second largest, OKCoin, has only half as much. So their price is relatively indifferent to the price in those exchanges.  (Rather, it is the other exchanges that apepar to track Huobi's price.)  It is apparent from the charts that price volatility is correlated with trade volume at Huobi -- but not at other exchanges, like Bitstamp. 

As explained  earlier, the Chinese Slumber Model assumes that before Huobi's clients go to bed, their "shop closing" actions are such that the price returns to some "natural" value by the "slumber times" (around 19:00 UTC, 3:00 am in China).  That "natural" price is  suposedly masked during daytime by the large swings that result from intense trading.   Moreover, the model assumes that the "natural" price is determined less by trading than by other "physical" factors that vary slowly with time -- such as the amount of money available for trading at the exchange.

The trend analysis is therefore trying to determine the variation of those "physical" factors --- and not of the prices set by trading,  which, as observed above, appear to be largely random.


I would not call it "artificially inflated".  Since they charge no fees, we should expect that they have many more actively trading clients than other exchanges, and also that each client generates a lot more trade volume than a client would elsewhere.

I have seen many claims that their volume is "fake", but I have yet to see evidence of that.  Their volume data seems to be consistent with humans assisted by robots or scripts.

On the other hand, evidence fo fake volume at MtGOX and other sites are quite strong. For example, by the end of January MtGOX's volume was as low as 15 kBTC/day; some dumb robots, that worked steadily day and night, may have accounted for half of that.

It may not be a pleasant conclusion for non-Chinese bitcoiners, but it seems undeniable that bitcoin trading is now largely a Chinese thing; specifically, that the price of bitcoin is now largely determined by the Chinese traders at Huobi and OKCoin., and carried to other exchanges by arbitrage.

I am surprised that sources like Coindesk pay so little attention to Huobi and OKCoin -- or even try to hide their existence.  I found only one interview with Huobi's CEO -- and was on a general finance source, not in a bitcoin news site.  We have only vague hints about the number, demographic profile, and motivations of their clients.

Actually, the articles at bitcoin news sources seem to be uncritical copy-paste of press releases, and have very little hard statistics -- such as the number of active users of bitcoin, active traders at each exchange, etc.

Where have all the investigative journalists gone?

Ok lets say $46700 on stamp and goal is 100 coins but we never went down to 460 on stamp. So I guess 80 coins would be great. But that would mean we need to go down to $577. I think that seems impossible at the moment.

What do I have to search to find Tera? Who is this?

like Tera if youve ever seen his limit buy/sell structures.

imo you think its going down, so I advise putting in bids below market price going down by 10-20 $ at a time. You ultimately decide howmmany coins you want factor that in to figure how much of that 50k you need to spend to get to your target

So lets say you have 50K FIAT on stamp, how would you buy?

How is Gox still ~$300 with under 6 mil on the bid side? Baffling.

yup this is going to be very tricky for those who are waiting on the sideline for some buying opportunity. better watch out or the train could leave without you, but i guess thats the game anyway.

but what if gox snaps back to 800 then 1000 while stamps goes down marginally only to end up exploding into 4 digits never to go back down again.