Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29686. (Read 26709950 times)

Noblesse me oblige to report on the (in)accuracy of the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for today:

Prediciton posted on 2014-02-13 23:07 UTC
Prediction valid for 2014-02-14 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi predicted price: 3750 plus or minus 30 CNY (3720  -- 3780)
Huobi actual price (L--H): 3991--4016 CNY
Error (difference between interval centers): 250 CNY

The prediction is the blue rectangle at the far right in the chart below, under the price bars.  The yellow dots are the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.


Obviously someone bought several thousand coins around that time, well over the "right" price, with the sole purpose of creating a freak spike on the charts and falsify my prediction. 

Seriously, today Huobi's volume (over 200,000 BTC) was a historical record among all exchanges, and the price went through a crash and a rally, with no obvious reason for either of them.  Huobi's clients kept trading furiously until past 2:00 am local time, and went to bed in the middle of a spike that had apparently reached its top.  Today's Slumber Point is way out of line with the previous three which had a clear descending trend.


The prediction for Bitstamp was

Bitstamp predicted price: 615 plus or minus 10 USD (605 -- 625)
Bitstamp actual price (L--H): 654--670 USD
Error (difference between interval centers): 47 USD

In the following plot, the predicition is again the rightmost blue rectangle.  The yellow dots are Huobi's pices at Slumber Times, divided by the currency factor R (6.40 for feb/07 to feb/09, 6.12 for all other days):



Note that, today at 19:00 UTC, the price at Bitstamp was comparatively higher than Huobi's, even assuming the low currency factor R = 6.12.

Oh good - I can ignore him then - thanks.  Still think it sucks, though.

You got you invite for Gox's funeral yet?  I can't find my black tie....  Shame.

You noticed it's spelt differently? So not strictly stolen... adamsgtBit vs adamstgBit

Crossed my mind too.   Don't want to ignore 'adamstgBit' though!

Won't Blitz sort it, or is he deep in conference with Theymos just now....   

i'm pretty sure fonzie is the impostor

not to worry, the train is leaving, he's being left behind.

Thank you - happy to report for duty.

I hereby swear to shovel coal and shoot a few trolls on the line to help the train build up steam, sir.

Adam , did you finally turn bearish?

Great decision btw.

Adam - can't you do something about this newbie troll / tosser who stole your ID?

Where's Blitz?

Welcome back to the phalanx.

I was just considering a long post about bowing out of here because I missed the real speculation and TA stuff of old.  I missed 25 pages, but judged it really wasn't worth reading back

But you know what.....?  After this ray of sunshine, I think I am going to hang around a little longer.

This is the real deal - enough of this dull BS trolling.

This is Bitcoin!

Disclosure: went back into full BTC at 612 yesterday, now I am spartan and I will HODL.

I drew some lines on a chart, and ya its official,

http://games.dcu.ie/wiki/images/e/e7/Fail-train.jpg

CCMF indeed.

With these new fuel tanks on board we have no reason to stop at da moon either.

I drew some lines on a chart, and ya its official,  ain't nothing gonna stop this train
       CCMF

So hypothetically, if a coordinated group of market manipulators infiltrated some forums, spreading FUD, what might that tell us about their position? Could it be that we have lots of coins and they don't? That prolly sucks for them. Damn. If ooooonly they had gotten in a little earlier, they would have all those coins instead of us. Must not seem fair.

But what if we didn't fall for it? Man, that would suck even worse. Now they would be not only wasting their time, but showing us just how badly they want something they can't have. Something we have. Bummer.

bitcointicker.co, "Grab" on my Mac and brain chemistry that triggered when something looked familiar. And Photoshop to put them together into one image.

Grab SOME for yourself

What charting software is that fotosonics? 

Looking thick, solid, tight. Looking forward to seeing what else you got.  Good luck with your crypto goals in 2014.

Top is today, bottom is 6 months.



Comments?

start posting trains