Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29985. (Read 26652410 times)
February 03, 2014, 08:07:25 AM
looks like week end rallye is over... we going down down down now. the question is.. will we break last ATL at around 725 on stamp last week?? ^^
February 03, 2014, 07:37:27 AM
Agreed, Gox doesn't add anything to the equation any more. We need bona fide exchanges where large amounts of fiat can move in and out relatively quickly. More liquidity, less volitility.
February 03, 2014, 07:35:55 AM
Ok let's speculate. How low could we go on a Gox collapse?
Referencing Oda's earlier point about the SR bust...let's remember that before it happened the sage PoV was that it would massively impact the market. The reality, after it happened, was the price was back on track in under a week.
The market(s) may actually respond positively to la vie sans Gox.
Complete agreement with your last line. Medium /long term it would likely be bullish, but it might throw us into a short period of selling frenzy, if it happens.
The press would come out and say : " 1st the CEO of bitcoin is arrested and now bitcoin collapsed!"
So yeah- at least a short term impact for sure.
February 03, 2014, 07:34:53 AM
(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.
To me, the great puzzle is who could be buying those coins at 130 US$ over market price. (It is easy to guess who is selling them.)
The only answer I can think of should scare everyone who has accounts there, in cash or bitcoins.
February 03, 2014, 07:30:38 AM
Ok let's speculate. How low could we go on a Gox collapse?
Referencing Oda's earlier point about the SR bust...let's remember that before it happened the sage PoV was that it would massively impact the market. The reality, after it happened, was the price was back on track in under a week.
The market(s) may actually respond positively to la vie sans Gox.
Complete agreement with your last line. Medium /long term it would likely be bullish, but it might throw us into a short period of selling frenzy, if it happens.
February 03, 2014, 07:21:00 AM
Nothing would please me more than to see GOX crash and burn.
I sold 4 BTC at around £500 a while back and then spent 2 months trying to get the money into my bank account here in England. It was a nightmare and in the end I asked them to return the cash to my account and I then stupidly bought just over 3 BTC at £650 each thereby losing almost a whole coin.
They are worse than useless.
I sold 4 BTC at around £500 a while back and then spent 2 months trying to get the money into my bank account here in England. It was a nightmare and in the end I asked them to return the cash to my account and I then stupidly bought just over 3 BTC at £650 each thereby losing almost a whole coin.
They are worse than useless.
February 03, 2014, 07:02:36 AM
Ok let's speculate. How low could we go on a Gox collapse?
Referencing Oda's earlier point about the SR bust...let's remember that before it happened the sage PoV was that it would massively impact the market. The reality, after it happened, was the price was back on track in under a week.
The market(s) may actually respond positively to la vie sans Gox.
February 03, 2014, 06:48:01 AM
Ok let's speculate. How low could we go on a Gox collapse?
February 03, 2014, 06:47:55 AM
Holy cow gox under 1000 volume.
Unfortunately Gox is dying slowly, First the drama in April with their trading engine lag, then the Fiat withdrawal problems and now the BTC withdrawal problems.
Gox has been the leader, a year and half ago they held more than 80% of the trading volume, now they lost more than 80% of their volume and I am afraid that they will have to fix all their problems ASAP or they will have 0 volume and then they will have just to shutdown.
but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.
Yesterday's volume at Gox of 1458 btc was the lowest since they started in 2010 (except the week they were closed in 2011).
(1) gox has been declared dead before, and it always came back so far, like a fucking zombie, so with that in mind I'll express point (2) below with a caveat
(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.
(3) which, despite what people like to tell themselves about "it already being priced in", would be ugly for price. Think "fbi silk road seizure" ugly, at least short term.
(4) But: It will be *so* worth it
did anybody say cheap coins???
I want to learn how to determine the Price of Bitcoin being cheap or expensive, it is confusing to me, I thought demand and supply and the order book depth and the gap between bids and asks determine it but I always learn new stuff, in other words $500 is cheap only when the price on exchanges is 800 and you get an offer for 500
February 03, 2014, 06:34:45 AM
Holy cow gox under 1000 volume.
Unfortunately Gox is dying slowly, First the drama in April with their trading engine lag, then the Fiat withdrawal problems and now the BTC withdrawal problems.
Gox has been the leader, a year and half ago they held more than 80% of the trading volume, now they lost more than 80% of their volume and I am afraid that they will have to fix all their problems ASAP or they will have 0 volume and then they will have just to shutdown.
but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.
Yesterday's volume at Gox of 1458 btc was the lowest since they started in 2010 (except the week they were closed in 2011).
(1) gox has been declared dead before, and it always came back so far, like a fucking zombie, so with that in mind I'll express point (2) below with a caveat
(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.
(3) which, despite what people like to tell themselves about "it already being priced in", would be ugly for price. Think "fbi silk road seizure" ugly, at least short term.
(4) But: It will be *so* worth it
did anybody say cheap coins???
February 03, 2014, 06:32:16 AM
Holy cow gox under 1000 volume.
Unfortunately Gox is dying slowly, First the drama in April with their trading engine lag, then the Fiat withdrawal problems and now the BTC withdrawal problems.
Gox has been the leader, a year and half ago they held more than 80% of the trading volume, now they lost more than 80% of their volume and I am afraid that they will have to fix all their problems ASAP or they will have 0 volume and then they will have just to shutdown.
but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.
Yesterday's volume at Gox of 1458 btc was the lowest since they started in 2010 (except the week they were closed in 2011).
(1) gox has been declared dead before, and it always came back so far, like a fucking zombie, so with that in mind I'll express point (2) below with a caveat
(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.
(3) which, despite what people like to tell themselves about "it already being priced in", would be ugly for price. Think "fbi silk road seizure" ugly, at least short term.
(4) But: It will be *so* worth it
February 03, 2014, 06:05:41 AM
miners are much less likely to hoard. This is simply because they have running costs
Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding. I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs. They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins. Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.
So, what you are saying is that miners are hodlers, too? Sure, some are. But you think that this guy http://hongwrong.com/hong-kong-bitcoin/ is not selling some of his BTC each month to cover costs?
i think this guy took some pictures of something and made a nice hoax
February 03, 2014, 06:02:32 AM
February 03, 2014, 05:53:15 AM
miners are much less likely to hoard. This is simply because they have running costs
Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding. I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs. They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins. Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.
So, what you are saying is that miners are hodlers, too? Sure, some are. But you think that this guy http://hongwrong.com/hong-kong-bitcoin/ is not selling some of his BTC each month to cover costs?
February 03, 2014, 05:41:07 AM
Electricity isn't so relevant anymore with ASICs. It the capital cost.
Electricity is always relevant.
Difficulty is growing, doubling each month. If now you have 1% cost in electricity to price, that means that in 7 months you have 100% (actually more, but irrelevant) cost to price ration. Long term, electricity always counts.
Why do people think that electricity doesn't matter? Because of the preordering business. Basically using money from preorders for R&D costs, and slow deliveries meaning the difficulty did not go up as fast as it could.
Funny stuff, money printing machines hardware business.
February 03, 2014, 05:40:58 AM
miners are much less likely to hoard. This is simply because they have running costs
Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding. I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs. They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins. Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.
+1
in some countries mined bitcoins are free of tax. that means saving 25 % on capital gains.
February 03, 2014, 05:34:10 AM
Electricity isn't so relevant anymore with ASICs. It the capital cost.
February 03, 2014, 05:30:09 AM
miners are much less likely to hoard. This is simply because they have running costs
Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding. I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs. They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins. Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.
February 03, 2014, 05:10:22 AM
then the supply goes down, as current miners are already hoarding, then the huge price spike occurs.
If you divide bitcoiners into roughly two groups, miners and speculators, miners are much less likely to hoard. This is simply because they have running costs, which they must pay each month, while speculators do not have that costs.
Probably the reason you don't see much hodl posts in the mining sections.
February 03, 2014, 05:05:00 AM
Bitcoin miners are at the point now if they just got their machines within the past month that they won't even see a ROI.
I see you are assuming that difficulty will grow forever. Nothing growing exponentially can grow forever, or even for a long period of time.
If we assume $15 to $100 in electricity costs per Bitcoin, and if difficulty doubles each month, we are talking 3 to 7 months until the difficulty stops going up.
And when it stops (and stop it must), all the miners that still didn't shut off will be making some money, and that means there is a period (perhaps a couple of years?) where they do make what they invested in their mining hardware.
In other words, there will always be some miners that are making money.
Off course, this all supposes that the price will be stable. If it goes up or crashes, it will just slow down or speed up this process.
Also, when difficulty stops growing, it will mean that at least some miners are at 90% cost to price ratio, and those will have to sell their BTC to cover their monthly running costs. Thus we can expect a steady 1000-2000 of BTC daily to hit the exchanges, and this amount of dollars will be needed just to keep the price at the same level, otherwise it will go down. Perhaps this is already the reason why we see this inability of BTC price to grow these days?
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