Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30001. (Read 26708387 times)

My 1st Bitcoin purchase!



Wish some of my debit card transactions went this EZ!

You do intrigue my Jorge - not only do you seem to do more analysis on bitcoin than most - you also find the inspiration to use some Poe in the first line of your verse  - and yet you still state you only have an academic interest in bitcoin...i think really you are as much of a bitcoin junkie as the rest of us here, either that or there is very little to do for entertainment where you live.

Beauty.

This is practical dating advice as well.

A fundamentals guy. Got it. This must be why you're defensive about charts you took such effort to create. I may be in the market for bone divination if you accept Bitcoin.


Except the Bitchslap price *hasn't* been stuck at 817 for 24 hours. It hasn't been anywhere near stuck at any price except during their maintenance period. You'd have been better off telling me it would be stuck at 824.4 during maintenance, but you couldn't even guess that correctly even though they announced the maintenance ahead of time. Unfortunately not only can't you tell the future but you seem to have trouble faking it even when given a leg up. But don't feel bad, no human can see the future with better odds than luck provides.


I thought we were stuck at 817?


Careful, you're heading toward intellectual honesty. "It could go up, down or sideways."


FTFY


So you'd like a month for your fortune telling to come to fruition? That's some mad solid skillz you gotz. I would think if you're so into fundamentals plus TA you might be able to narrow the time frame down to some specific times and dates. Silly me.


Except it didn't. You've deluded yourself into thinking it did. Are you sure you don't believe in this stuff as you claim? You're just posting it for fun, right? You're a fundamentals guy, right?


The price, which is anything but magical, did trade at various price in the last 24 hours. If you can tell the future you should be able to help Bitcoinity out by providing them with all their charts into next year.


What's happening here is that you're human and you think you saw some pattern in the chaos. The intellectual side of you understands it is bullshit, but yet, you saw a pattern and being intellectually curious want to understand why. So you learn a little about TA fortune telling and it seems to make some sense, strengthening the bias toward the patterns you see. Now you see even MORE patterns: confirmation bias.

In an effort to gain some confidence and seek approval from peers you posted your confirmed nonsense "just for fun". A bit concerned about posting your brave new astrology TA discoveries, you were sure to tell us up front you're just kidding around, you still believe in "fundamentals." Yet you vigorously defend your star price data even though it is plainly vague and downright wrong approximately 50% of the time. I guess I should say 66% since the price can always go up, down or sideway, making any guess @33% correct.


And many times not, though I'm sure you don't count the losses.


If these old timers knew the future why have they been trading for an entire career only to retire with less money than Bill Gates? Surely if their voodoo worked they would all be the wealthiest people on the planet solely from trading precognition. They could publish their precognition rules and any human would be able to follow these rules and become the wealthiest people on the planet. Strangely this hasn't happened.


As annoying as that all can be at least it has the honesty of emotion, hopes, dreams, without trying to call it "science" which is what TA proposes (always with a hedge of course). The hedge is necessary because it's all horse pucks. Go ahead, give us another "channel" that might go up, down or sideway within a few weeks.


I haven't even seen you post a lot of this TA gibberish, I've just been watching many folks post this nonsense for so long and you happened to catch me at a bad time I guess. I've watched America be mired in superstition for so long, I just feel like enough is enough even in this international forum. Anyway, onward with your TA and buzzword usage, or CCMF and all that. I'll leave you alone now.

Ah, distinctly I remember; it was in the bleak December,
And each dipping streak of ember brought the price through the floor;
And the sick and sad uncertain trending of that crimson curtain
Thrilled me - filled me with fantastic terrors never felt before.

You'll have to ask Risto...it's his gig.

But you'll find he has an answer for most things.

Bidwall dissapearing on Stamp.

 

Explanation

Very cool, thanks for sharing. Always appreciate concise TA.  I used to do programming for William O'Neil in the 90's for the institutional investor products so have a long interest in TA, though fundamentals (and news) rule when they are present. 
And remember that on the internet the 1000 that will agree with you will silently nod and say nothing, and the 10 that don't will comment.

Ha ha.. yeah fair play.. good one...you are right... but no worries there I have thick skin, and a thick skull probably too... I guess I am a little cranky in the mornings    but you know, you contribute, and someone takes a leak on your parade, fair enough tis the internets and all, but at least "get it" before you take a leak all over someones "work"   If what I had posted really was just a guess of somewhere between $725- $991 then actually even that has merit, if it is correct, and I have seen far far far less sound logic here and far larger "misses"  ie "Moon by next month" But as it is I was actually quite specific really, the pivots and the channels of SP and RS on each side of pivot are quite specific,  all I am really saying is lets see if we do bounce around in those channels in this breakout.

We are all here speculating, and having a laugh fair enough , I love a Choo Chooooo MFKR as much as the next guy.
Only reason I posted this was I saw the guy make a very broad prediction two days ago on here, and as I was looking at some fib levels on something else I am trading I thought I would take a look at the BTC charts, and I saw some very strong evidence that the price has in the past and is bouncing around strong fib retracement levels... and a few other key lines (psychological resistance levels at key price points in USD and CNY) now the reason why ? I have a feeling that maybe some of the bots maybe some traders, maybe some Chinese/japanese traders make use of these FIB levels themselves to enter and exit the market, SOME of them, and MAYBE, I know they sure do in the PM markets. I have looked at the graphs, and those potential resistance and support and pivot levels seem like real possabilities based on the price actions so far and going back a good few months. Though a large green or red bar that blows straight 
through the support or res levels would not surprise me either, it is just a potential indicator that I thought I would take a public look at.

I take it with a pinch of salt, but at the same time when you read a chart, carry out an analysis, get some figures out of it, and one of them
as in this case the very first one, gets hit within hours and then the prices stays does indeed pivot around it, then it is , for me interesting, thats all, which is what has happened in this situation... could all turn to shit next, but for me it is intereating that $817 100% got the role of the pivot for 24 hours and the price as I post this is $817.51 , and $800 remains and $825

Yeah I guess maybe I am in one way itching for it to play out bang onto my scenario.. but I was not jumping up and down , preparing a newsletter and subscription service lol but I was posting, for prosperity and as an update... anyway I am rambing now...I have just got up and the 2nd coffee is kicking in.....

  I will continue to see if the pivots and SP/RS levels get hit and maybe post a highly condensed 1 line update or something as they either do or do not get hit (come on, we all know they will probably not get hit, and I will just be wrong, but at least give it a chance and then rip me a new one afterwards    then you can really take the piss outta me lol !?   but at the end of the day really I dont care I am a long term hodlr and dip buyer...  so what I mean to say of course is CHOOOOOO CHOOOOOOOO1!!!1! 

Thicker skin please.  Welcome to the internet.

Explanation

Yes. Something just to happen sometime soon.

I checked it and it seems really helpful.  I just learned for example that if you use a humidor, you should not stick your cigar into the same opening where you poured the water in.

(But what is a "humidor" in Quality Technical Analysis jargon?  A Fibonacci fractal type of choo choo train?)

Bids piling up on stamp, breakout of 825 highly probable.

I would further conjecture that Chinese rallying bulls are active mostly between evening and midnight 23:00, when they go to bed. Then the crashing bears take over and stay up until 02:00 01:00 am.

Unless they are all pump-and-dump werebears (bulls that turn into bears at the hour when the full moon would be at zenith if the moon was full).

EDIT: that's China's local time of course, which I believe is 9 8 hours ahead of UTC.  So 00:00 would be 15:00 16:00 UTC and 02:00 am would be 17:00 18:00 UTC, on the previous date.

EDIT: Fixed local times; China's time is UTC+08:00 not UTC+09:00

Ok fair enough will check it out...... thanks

Oh dear , I am sorry,,  you are right I posted a scenario and it actually played out for 24 hours so far  and continues to ... sorry how stupid of me... I shall only post photos of flying trains from now on, that is what we are here for silly me...  

lol... maybe you should learn how to read! and what support and resistance and pivot points are. - EDIT Sorry I am a cranky fckr in the mornings

 I predicted channels and pivot levels....  so ermm yeah... take a read try to understand what that actually means , before you start to ridicule someone, before you know, talking a load of words that do not make sense.. I am not trading from these charts anyway , I am a fundamentals guy... I already posted that I am an idiot posting this for fun.. but no still not good enough for ya...  

As I have already posted , I put the downside support and pivot levels in place as they could come into play

e.g the price $817 first acted as support , then turns pivot,  the next level of support is $800 and the next level above it is $825  

so in that scenario  as soon as we hit $817  then :  

Resistance level 1=  $825

PIVOT level= $817   - $817 was the support level turned pivot.

Support level 1=  $800


SO the price was stuck there $817 for around 12 hours (now almost 24 hours)  and still has not really traded out of the range  I gave for the  first channel =  of $800 - $817 - $825 ... for 24 hours now - plus I called the pivot of $817 sorry if $817 is not specific enough for you

$817 a key pivot = YUP we have been pivoting around here for 24 hours ish
$800 next support = YUP we have not broken this
$825 Next resistance= YUP we have not broken this.

This is how posting  support and resistance and pivot levels works !!  so my numbers showing the different potential pivot points are actually quite specific...  well very specific , and also the first set of numbers each side of the current price are the 1st most probable figures to be traded around.

Added to that I have stated yesterday that we a trading sideways at around $820-$ 825 , I also stated that I see us going up form here , but that there are downside supports, and I have stated the levels going in both directions that I see resistance and psychological resistance and support...and plus I have explained that this is covering how I see a BREAKOUT as I am basing the figures on FIBBONANCI RETRACEMENTS (a form of TA that I did not invent by the way)  and I say that this is only valid if the breakout occurs now, or within the next few weeks.

So basically  I posted a scenario and so far it  as played out... the "magic price"  could have traded to ANYTHING in the last 24 hours but it has not.

What I was trying to point out is there MAY be some resistance points around fib retracement lines.... so I posted the retracement lines, and their pivot points...  out of interest…  on this price movement and speculation thread..

The reason I posted a  the figure of  $775- $820 for the SIDEWAYS scenario, was just incase we do not get an actualy breakout within the next few weeks.

I am not saying this is going to play out, but I am saying
I did not invent Fibbonanci retracement lines or support levels or resistance levels - it is something I learned about 7 or 8 years ago and have seen it used to very good effect to describe RETRACEMENTS of moves, I have used in the PM market to sucess myelf (sometimes) and seen it used  a lot by old timer traders that have been in the game trading for 30/40 years - I repeat I did not make this up myself, I am just passing it on.
At least I actually speculated and gave specific figures and specific reasons (ie Fib lines, or fiblines intersecting with psychological resistance levels) and I have come and stated it for the world to see, as sstated earlier I can just go back to posting pictures of flying trains... choo choo, my kid likes it when I make the noise.. oh how he loves it,  maybe I shall get him to post (he would probably be as accurate as most here, myself included ; )
 
I may not be nostradamus, but I am not trying to be, just playing out a public experiment- did I mention I am a buyer and a holder of BTC I do not sell at the moment anyway, as I said I am a fundamentals guy at heart… I bought a few years back, and I will sell in 2017-2020 - so I do not need these figures anyway... it was as I say a bit of fun, and I just wanted to use them buzzwords I think.