Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30186. (Read 26712736 times)
January 24, 2014, 05:38:11 PM
BITCOIN IS A FUCKING BUBBLE IT'S GONNA BURST THIS YEAR!
January 24, 2014, 05:37:06 PM
^Jesus!!! you think BTC is going to $80,000,000?
If 90% of BTC are consumed by reserve demand and 50% of the global GDP is denominated in bitcoin, we will see $80mm/btc.
You also have to consider that world GDP is growing exponentially and dollars are being debased at the same time. $80mm may only buy a cheeseburger a decade from now! It actually would've been a heluva bargain in Zimbabwe a few years back. I have a few $100,000,000,000 Zimbabwe bills that I bought on eBay. The world's reserve currency will probably be the last to fall, but hyperinflation is pretty much inevitable with fiat currencies. If the only weapon you have is a printing press, every problem looks like a liquidity problem.
January 24, 2014, 05:36:05 PM
bitcoin is a bubble
January 24, 2014, 05:35:46 PM
We just had a crash and consolidation. Maybe we need another one. I don't know, but I don't want to see anybody get hurt, and nobody get's hurt if we only go up from here except the people waiting now for a lower price point with too much cash on the sidelines. I don't have a crystal ball and maybe waiting now is is good strategy, but it's good for Bitcoin if there's less volatility.
The market doesn't care if people get hurt. And the market surely doesn't give a fuck what is good for bitcoin. 
January 24, 2014, 05:33:09 PM
Global remittance business (Western Union etc.) = $0.5 trillion
This is a gross under-estimate -- US-centrism is blinkering you. WU and MoneyGram *alone* do 0.685 tn usd/an in remittances. Hawala networks, non-US related remittances, Internet-based remittances multiply this by a *large* factor. There are nations of central Asia in which 60% of the GDP consists of remittances (mostly from Russia and Kazakhstan.)
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Any talk of $80 million USD per BTC or even $8 million within five years is just complete fantasy.
Definitely not fantastical. Achievable. Very *unlikely*, yes. 90% is probably a fair estimate of reserve demand, but 50% domination of all monetary transactions seems unlikely. However, layered applications may consume much more bitcoin. I think there is a natural limit when 1 satoshi ~= 1 yen, roughly the smallest unit of useful currency. Either there is a protocol fork for that, or adjunct chains serve the subpenny traffic, or a fundamental innovation occurs. Meanwhile, it is a natural resistance point, albiet one very far away and unlikely to be seen in our lifetimes.
January 24, 2014, 05:31:45 PM
Good. I want it to take a longer time to reach an ATH. Because I am jobless with almost nothing. So, I can't drop a few thousand and pick up 10 or 100 coins. At these prices I can buy like 2 BTC - at lower prices I can triple that. Its a huge difference for me.
You're a dipshit. let's say you're right and it crashes and you get three coins for the rice of one now. it takes three months to recover and you've trippled up. Or you could just buy one now and the price doubles two months in a row (because nodody got spooked by the crash that didn't happen) and you've got FOUR times your buy-in. I'm not too surprised you're unemployed with little money when you display an attitude like that. And you'll never be richer than me. If it crashes, I'll just be right there buying with you. asshole.
In before you somehow find a way to make this about blaming the government. "I'm not too surprised you're unemployed with little money when you display an attitude like that. And you'll never be richer than me." -- more of the same crude bullshit. You fucking asshole.
January 24, 2014, 05:30:46 PM
1 BTC=~$800 now ~1000% annual appreciation for the trend.
in one year 1 BTC=~$8,0000
two years 1BTC=~$80,000
three years 1BTC=~$800,000
Four years 1 BTC=~$8,000,000
Five years 1 BTC=~80,000,000
$80 mil is a position to produce stuff. Now this trend may slow down, but again, you're young. You say you want to swing for the fences. Good. I'm like that too. Just don't strike out waiting for the perfect pitch.
in one year 1 BTC=~$8,0000
two years 1BTC=~$80,000
three years 1BTC=~$800,000
Four years 1 BTC=~$8,000,000
Five years 1 BTC=~80,000,000
$80 mil is a position to produce stuff. Now this trend may slow down, but again, you're young. You say you want to swing for the fences. Good. I'm like that too. Just don't strike out waiting for the perfect pitch.
Um, you do realize that s-curves (like Bitcoin adoption) only increase exponentially on the approach to vertical, don't you?
January 24, 2014, 05:28:37 PM
^Jesus!!! you think BTC is going to $80,000,000?
If 90% of BTC are consumed by reserve demand and 50% of the global GDP is denominated in bitcoin, we will see $80mm/btc.
Yup. But that would be a very different world to the one we currently live in.
January 24, 2014, 05:26:35 PM
^Jesus!!! you think BTC is going to $80,000,000?
If 90% of BTC are consumed by reserve demand and 50% of the global GDP is denominated in bitcoin, we will see $80mm/btc.
January 24, 2014, 05:24:19 PM
Gold market = $6.5 trillion
Global remittance business (Western Union etc.) = $0.5 trillion
M0 = $5 trillion
M1 = $25 trillion
M2 = $60 trillion
M3 = $75 trillion
I think the sum of global wealth (held by the world's adults) is somewhere around $200 trillion.
(all approx. of course)
I know some very smart people think a single bitcoin will one day have the purchasing power that $1million USD has right now but given the above I find that very hard to believe.
Personally, I find it very hard to see how 1 BTC would, under the same terms, ever be worth more than a few hundred thousand USD.
Any talk of $80 million USD per BTC or even $8 million within five years is just complete fantasy.
Global remittance business (Western Union etc.) = $0.5 trillion
M0 = $5 trillion
M1 = $25 trillion
M2 = $60 trillion
M3 = $75 trillion
I think the sum of global wealth (held by the world's adults) is somewhere around $200 trillion.
(all approx. of course)
I know some very smart people think a single bitcoin will one day have the purchasing power that $1million USD has right now but given the above I find that very hard to believe.
Personally, I find it very hard to see how 1 BTC would, under the same terms, ever be worth more than a few hundred thousand USD.
Any talk of $80 million USD per BTC or even $8 million within five years is just complete fantasy.
January 24, 2014, 05:22:13 PM
The number of coins is completely arbitrary. What matters is the value of your total stash. I once had a goal of 1000 coins and I alllllllmost reached it, but I'll never get that now and you know what? doesn't even matter. It was just a nice round number. Something psychological. What matters is my daughter can have braces, a quincinera, a college education and a wedding some day.
and a single bitcoin now WILL be worth millions if the multi-year log trend holds. in only three to five years.
What are you talking about.and a single bitcoin now WILL be worth millions if the multi-year log trend holds. in only three to five years.
100 BTC and each BTC is worth $1 million -> 100 x $1 million = $100,000,000.
1 BTC and each BTC is worth $1 million -> 1 x $1 million = $1,000,000.
That is a difference of 100x - that is the difference between being able to start up a multimillion dollar business project and not being able to. That is the difference between being financially free and not. BTC is not going to $1 million in 5 years, it may go there within 10.
The more BTC, the more purchasing power and the sooner you reach that plateau of purchasing power where you no longer have to worry about spending everything you have to get to where you want to be. It is a HUGE difference. Its massive.
That is exactly my point... you want bitcoin to go up as soon as possible so you can buy some stuff (whatever a quincinera is and why you would want to waste BTC on it that you think are going to $1,000,000). I want to accumulate bitcoin so I can be in a position to produce stuff.
Sigh. ok Junior, read carefully:
1 BTC=~$800 now ~1000% annual appreciation for the trend.
in one year 1 BTC=~$8,0000
two years 1BTC=~$80,000
three years 1BTC=~$800,000
Four years 1 BTC=~$8,000,000
Five years 1 BTC=~80,000,000
$80 mil is a position to produce stuff. Now this trend may slow down, but again, you're young. You say you want to swing for the fences. Good. I'm like that too. Just don't strike out waiting for the perfect pitch.
$984 trillion is only a fraction of the world's derivatives market.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/03/worldwide-derivatives-market-estimated-as-big-as-1-2-quadrillion-as-banks-fight-efforts-to-rein-it-in.html
A sells a product to B for $1. B sells it back to A for $1. A total of $2 has changed hands. The market was $2. Doesn't make the product worth $2.
We'll probably see how 'real' that house of cards is sooner rather than later.
January 24, 2014, 05:20:28 PM
Quote
Could it be that this coding genius is instead enjoying computer-manufactured riches on some remote, tax-free island, or is he a cyber-terrorist who upon Bitcoin adoption will activate a Trojan-horse virus to bring world commerce back to the Stone Age?
edit: talking about satoshi nakamoto!
In reality we use the wheel not because we trusted the inventor but because we find it useful.
January 24, 2014, 05:14:07 PM
The number of coins is completely arbitrary. What matters is the value of your total stash. I once had a goal of 1000 coins and I alllllllmost reached it, but I'll never get that now and you know what? doesn't even matter. It was just a nice round number. Something psychological. What matters is my daughter can have braces, a quincinera, a college education and a wedding some day.
and a single bitcoin now WILL be worth millions if the multi-year log trend holds. in only three to five years.
What are you talking about.and a single bitcoin now WILL be worth millions if the multi-year log trend holds. in only three to five years.
100 BTC and each BTC is worth $1 million -> 100 x $1 million = $100,000,000.
1 BTC and each BTC is worth $1 million -> 1 x $1 million = $1,000,000.
That is a difference of 100x - that is the difference between being able to start up a multimillion dollar business project and not being able to. That is the difference between being financially free and not. BTC is not going to $1 million in 5 years, it may go there within 10.
The more BTC, the more purchasing power and the sooner you reach that plateau of purchasing power where you no longer have to worry about spending everything you have to get to where you want to be. It is a HUGE difference. Its massive.
That is exactly my point... you want bitcoin to go up as soon as possible so you can buy some stuff (whatever a quincinera is and why you would want to waste BTC on it that you think are going to $1,000,000). I want to accumulate bitcoin so I can be in a position to produce stuff.
Sigh. ok Junior, read carefully:
1 BTC=~$800 now ~1000% annual appreciation for the trend.
in one year 1 BTC=~$8,0000
two years 1BTC=~$80,000
three years 1BTC=~$800,000
Four years 1 BTC=~$8,000,000
Five years 1 BTC=~80,000,000
$80 mil is a position to produce stuff. Now this trend may slow down, but again, you're young. You say you want to swing for the fences. Good. I'm like that too. Just don't strike out waiting for the perfect pitch.
$984 trillion is only a fraction of the world's derivatives market.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/03/worldwide-derivatives-market-estimated-as-big-as-1-2-quadrillion-as-banks-fight-efforts-to-rein-it-in.html
January 24, 2014, 05:12:14 PM
Thank you, ChartBuddy, for you work posting this confirmed bad news. An analysis of your analysis demonstrates that it is proven that bitcoin will crash based on the green and the red. Can you confirm?
Don't you get tired of this? Enjoyed some of the high-class trolling, but its getting boring again so quick.. maybe time for another break?
he started writing for the NYT lately:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/24/bitcoin-is-not-yet-ready-for-the-real-world/
Quote
Could it be that this coding genius is instead enjoying computer-manufactured riches on some remote, tax-free island, or is he a cyber-terrorist who upon Bitcoin adoption will activate a Trojan-horse virus to bring world commerce back to the Stone Age?
edit: talking about satoshi nakamoto!
January 24, 2014, 05:11:04 PM
^Jesus!!! you think BTC is going to $80,000,000?
Either the technology will be adopted or it won't. It's basically a binary outcome. it's still a long shot, but it's a heluva lot more likely than it was three years ago.
do the math. What is Gold's market cap and what market share do you think Bitcoin will take?
What is VISA and Mastercard's market cap and what market share do you think Bitcoin will take?
and Western Union, Moneygram?
and Paypal?
and microtransactions?
and national currencies?
and SWIFT wire transfers? ACH?
stuff we haven't even thought of yet?
For comparison, all the gold in the world is valued at aboout $10Tn, depending on estimates. That is far short of $984Tn.
Looks like you didn't do the math.
January 24, 2014, 05:08:52 PM
Thank you, ChartBuddy, for you work posting this confirmed bad news. An analysis of your analysis demonstrates that it is proven that bitcoin will crash based on the green and the red. Can you confirm?
Don't you get tired of this? Enjoyed some of the high-class trolling, but its getting boring again so quick.. maybe time for another break?
January 24, 2014, 05:04:57 PM
Thank you, ChartBuddy, for you work posting this confirmed bad news. An analysis of your analysis demonstrates that it is proven that bitcoin will crash based on the green and the red. Can you confirm?
January 24, 2014, 05:04:19 PM
^Jesus!!! you think BTC is going to $80,000,000?
Either the technology will be adopted or it won't. It's basically a binary outcome. it's still a long shot, but it's a heluva lot more likely than it was three years ago.
do the math. What is Gold's market cap and what market share do you think Bitcoin will take?
What is VISA and Mastercard's market cap and what market share do you think Bitcoin will take?
and Western Union, Moneygram?
and Paypal?
and microtransactions?
and national currencies?
and SWIFT wire transfers? ACH?
stuff we haven't even thought of yet?
January 24, 2014, 05:02:31 PM
January 24, 2014, 05:00:01 PM
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