what news in china? Haven't heard anything in the past few hours...
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30312. (Read 26709239 times)
January 14, 2014, 11:37:35 PM
January 14, 2014, 11:33:56 PM
lol news out of china, going north.
And you're not going to post it?
I think I got trolled by btce trollbox.
Haha noob.
January 14, 2014, 11:26:08 PM
Well something is brewing in China. Volume has gone back up again at Huobi. OKCoin LTC/CNY suddenly ramps.
January 14, 2014, 11:24:21 PM
lol news out of china, going north.
And you're not going to post it?
Breaking news, straight out of China. the btc-e trollbox has now been fully amalgamated with the Wall Observer of the bitcointalk speculation sub-forum fame.
full story at 11
*gah* if only I'd have listened to the red text and checked the previous post... DAMN YOU RED TEXT!
January 14, 2014, 11:22:37 PM
lol news out of china, going north.
And you're not going to post it?
I think I got trolled by btce trollbox.
January 14, 2014, 11:17:41 PM
Quote
I told him about BTC in 2011 but he never got involved. Hates himself for it. I know many people like this. Most of them still have not got in at all!
I can't tell you how many people I know like this. They keep asking me and I know they are still open to the idea, it's just a steep learning curve.
January 14, 2014, 11:12:00 PM
January 14, 2014, 11:10:26 PM
Granted it is only one sample, I picked blue as the fake data right away.
Good. Can you tell what looked "wrong" with that one?Brownian motion follows a normal distribution. Price changes follow a power law distribution with clustering of high standard deviation data points.
In that interval, in particular, the red curve has larger deviations in the first half, smaller in the middle (from ~120 to ~150) and then intermediate ones near the end.
However, that effect seems to be rather subtle. Perhaps it was the non-normal distribution of the changes that made the red curve look different?
January 14, 2014, 11:09:47 PM
lol news out of china, going north.
And you're not going to post it?
January 14, 2014, 11:06:15 PM
lol news out of china, going north.
January 14, 2014, 11:02:46 PM
January 14, 2014, 10:52:11 PM
Granted it is only one sample, I picked blue as the fake data right away.
Good. Can you tell what looked "wrong" with that one?Brownian motion follows a normal distribution. Price changes follow a power law distribution with clustering of high standard deviation data points.
January 14, 2014, 10:50:06 PM
Pretty stagnant day since I woke up....
January 14, 2014, 10:48:31 PM
Granted it is only one sample, I picked blue as the fake data right away.
Good. Can you tell what looked "wrong" with that one?
January 14, 2014, 10:41:20 PM
yeah, but still it made enough headlines that a British friends told me about it:) (he is not a bitcoiner)
I can't believe you have a friend who isn't a bitcoiner goat, after your success and reputation in community.
January 14, 2014, 10:40:58 PM
One of these plots is actual hourly closing price (USD/BTC) from one exchange, the other is a series of fake prices generated by a simple "log-Brownian" model.
Can you tell which is which, without looking at other charts?
If you think you can, what difference do you see?
Can you tell which is which, without looking at other charts?
If you think you can, what difference do you see?
Honestly, they both look very plausible. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they're both BTC/USD, but from different exchanges.
The red line (Y) is Bitstamp's hourly closing price from 2014-01-05 to 2014-01-13.
The blue line (X) is generated by starting with
X(0) = 840
Z(0) = log_10(X(0)),
then, for i = 1,2,...
Z(i) = Z(i-1) + 0.058*RND(),
X(i) = 10^Z(i)
where RND() is a random number with normal distribution, mean 0 and standard deviation 1.
In simple words, the simulated price X(i) increases or decreases at each step by a random percentage, without regard for the past history.
I had to try twice, with different random generator's seeds; on my first attempt the simulated price dropped too low at one point, it would have been a dead giveaway.
Granted it is only one sample, I picked blue as the fake data right away.
January 14, 2014, 10:39:12 PM
Actually bitcoin miners are fucked.
99% of the miners (paid in BTC) won't reach ROI ever !
They hoard the coins and wait for a price increase, otherwise they all lose money.
If the mining business collapses and 5000 coins are sold daily, there will be blood (candles)
At the moment, only a few can win. Most can't cash out or they will lose money (market collapse). That's one of the main reason for the steady uptrend. It's not market adoption or increased utility. Transactions didn't increase very much the last 3 years. The price did with only a few percentage of bitcoins traded.
99% of the miners (paid in BTC) won't reach ROI ever !
They hoard the coins and wait for a price increase, otherwise they all lose money.
If the mining business collapses and 5000 coins are sold daily, there will be blood (candles)
At the moment, only a few can win. Most can't cash out or they will lose money (market collapse). That's one of the main reason for the steady uptrend. It's not market adoption or increased utility. Transactions didn't increase very much the last 3 years. The price did with only a few percentage of bitcoins traded.
lol, just lol
*edit* I'm finally in the 1%!!! woohoo!
January 14, 2014, 10:14:55 PM
Irrelevant. Nobody buys bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency because they are superior payment systems. We buy for one and only one reason: to hodl and sodl our way to more fiat.
Please do not respond to my post with lies. thx.
January 14, 2014, 10:07:07 PM
i panic sold once and i felt so dumb that i've adopted the strict HODL policy and it's been working out for me so far
you guys should try it out too
you guys should try it out too
I've moved to a pure SODL strategy, since we're clearly heading to zero.
Why are you still here when you think we are going to zero?
Just as the Chinese government has recently warned citizens of the dangers of bitcoin, I am warning citizens of bitcointalk of the dangers of bitcoins, to help as many people as possible. Only Satoshi and maybe 2 or 3 other people will make any money from bitcoin. Everyone else will lose money, and probably destroy their life, as the Chinese government has explained.
Still just trying to catch up, but I just have to blurt out, this was epic!
Well done Proudhon. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw
January 14, 2014, 10:02:37 PM
Jump to: