Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30577.

Peter R

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Quote from: TERA on January 02, 2014, 02:30:15 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 02, 2014, 02:23:50 AM

A friendly reminder about how reality looks like:
http://buttcoin.org/easy-like-sunday-morning

What a sad story. My Bitstamp withdrawals have been working just fine. Where is this guy selling the half price bitcoins? I would like to meet go meet him.

That site is pretty funny, but I'm wondering if those stories on buttcoin.org are completely made up. Myself and others have done several large withdrawals successfully from cavirtex--never had a problem. In fact, the only problem I've ever had was getting money in to the exchange. In Vancouver we have an active 'local bitcoins' community too; if you'd take a 10-15% discount to cavirtex, you could sell $100,000 tomorrow for cash.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: TERA on January 02, 2014, 02:40:31 AM

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Adam look, you can now close the thread.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: alexeft on January 02, 2014, 02:43:07 AM

Quote from: TERA on January 02, 2014, 02:40:31 AM

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

Then nobody will dump 50k coins. Just the slippage will stop them.

Then they just put in an askwall.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: TERA on January 02, 2014, 02:40:31 AM

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Compare the right thing please. You seem to be using Gox so the current price is $822, that's 822/127=6.5 times the price, so you should look at the slippage of 50k/6.5 = ~7.7k BTC. According to Clarkmoody that results in 7.75% slippage, so lower than in May.

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Davyd05

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Quote from: TERA on January 02, 2014, 02:40:31 AM

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

50,000BTC * 127BTC/usd = 6,350,000usd

50,000BTC * 745BTC/usd = 37,250,000usd

think these totals are important,

17% of 50,000 roughly 8500 coins now a days makes 6,350,000 ( rounded numbers) cause I am lazyyyyy. So perhaps we just need to give more relevance to the price in relation to volume

edit: we saw 3400-4500 coins sold on gox yesterday perhaps they just wanted 6 milli

alexeft

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Quote from: TERA on January 02, 2014, 02:40:31 AM

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

Then nobody will dump 50k coins. Just the slippage will stop them.

TERA

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50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Peter R

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Peter R on January 02, 2014, 02:31:03 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Peter R on January 02, 2014, 02:19:50 AM

Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2014, 02:11:17 AM

Quote from: Voodah on January 02, 2014, 02:04:53 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed. We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two. I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually. It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon. There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins. Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.

no one is going to dump 50k btc on the open market not expecting to get the fait

50k is extreme--the point is that big dumps are always possible for a variety of reasons.

no it is not, unless the exchange is doing it

I'm sorry Goat, I don't think I understood your last two posts. What did you mean "no one is going to dump 50k btc on the open market not expecting to get the fait"? And what did you mean that 50k is not extreme "unless the exchange is doing it?"

Peter R

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Peter R on January 02, 2014, 02:19:50 AM

Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2014, 02:11:17 AM

Quote from: Voodah on January 02, 2014, 02:04:53 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed. We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two. I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually. It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon. There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins. Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.

no one is going to dump 50k btc on the open market not expecting to get the fait

50k is extreme--the point is that big dumps are always possible for a variety of reasons.

TERA

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 02, 2014, 02:23:50 AM

Quote from: Peter R on January 02, 2014, 02:19:50 AM

Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2014, 02:11:17 AM

Quote from: Voodah on January 02, 2014, 02:04:53 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed. We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two. I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually. It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon. There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins. Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.

A friendly reminder about how reality looks like:
http://buttcoin.org/easy-like-sunday-morning

What a sad story. My Bitstamp withdrawals have been working just fine. Where is this guy selling the half price bitcoins? I would like to meet go meet him.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: Peter R on January 02, 2014, 02:19:50 AM

Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2014, 02:11:17 AM

Quote from: Voodah on January 02, 2014, 02:04:53 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed. We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two. I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually. It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon. There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins. Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.

A friendly reminder about how reality looks like:
http://buttcoin.org/easy-like-sunday-morning

F-bernanke

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Quote from: OldGeek on January 02, 2014, 02:02:12 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: OldGeek on January 02, 2014, 01:06:07 AM

So, my question remains. Where will all the coins come from to support a huge increase in the price?

It doesn't take any coins to change the price, all it takes is for nobody to offer to sell under $1000.

100% agree with that. But that isn't support. If nobody sells we don't have a market.

Thats a market, a market around $1000 to be precise. it's all about supply/demand, no supply of coins, higher demand = higher price.

TERA

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These are not deep books or 'big walls' either - these are thin. Even if you combined bitstamp and mtgox, if you were to see books this thin any time before October, you would know for sure that a drop was coming. But now we are in some new paradigm of thinking where we don't need deep books and the majority of the volume is done in offline whale transactions and in China. Meanwhile there is no real proof of exactly how much this is occuring.

ElectricMucus

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China wants to move down, bitstamp wants to move down. Just the goxians are clinging to the cliff what will happen?

Peter R

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Quote from: aminorex on January 02, 2014, 02:11:17 AM

Quote from: Voodah on January 02, 2014, 02:04:53 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed. We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two. I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually. It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon. There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins. Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid.

aminorex

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: TERA on January 02, 2014, 02:10:12 AM

You're all so sure of yourselves as if your optimisms are facts. Meanwhile the whales could feel like they are playing Jenga with btc and it is a big stalemate.

Talking your book is a form of intellectual honesty. I respect that. But "could" is emotional FUD land, while facts and logic create "optimisms".
I find it very difficult to make price-bear cases on the basis of facts and logic, easy to make price-bull cases. I won't detail the reasons which have
been addressed elsewhere as I'm not trying to convince on that point. But, and here is the point of this post, or will be eventually, if I ever terminate the meta-narrative component, I am deeply puzzled by the volatility-bearish nature of this thread recently. I remain deeply volatility-bullish. If I could buy BTC vol, given the sentiments expressed here, I suspect I could get it for CHEAP!

aminorex

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: Voodah on January 02, 2014, 02:04:53 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.

I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed. We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two. I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day.

Um, to me stacking orders of 200 every 5USD to a depth of 4k on each of two exchanges qualifies as a dump. Others may use the word with more rigor, e.g. to mean an atomic market order (OMG the very thought makes me weep for the fool) or at least a near-market limit order.

TERA

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You're all so sure of yourselves as if your optimisms are facts. Meanwhile the whales could feel like they are playing Jenga with btc and it is a big stalemate.

lebing

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Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: Voodah on January 02, 2014, 02:04:53 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

thats why I posted that silly gif. We wont see that again.

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