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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30638. (Read 26714038 times)

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink
One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker... Wink

Lots of weed, you are shit in math when you're high, but rest of the time you're brilliant -> just don't smoke all the time and your math skills go to the moon Grin I stopped drinking hard when I found my love to ganja Cheesy

Back to the (supposed) topic? Tongue

Is 800 suddenly point of resistance now (on mtgox)? That could put a damper on this lil' trend of ours, no?

I don't say what will happen, but bearish approach now would be to say that this "mini rally" got us to 732 and strong resistance found from 730 when last time "mini rally" got us to 764 and resistance was found from 760. -> Fuel is going down and with this low volume speculators will get nervous and start selling hard after a while.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
equilibrium (even with fluctuation) is realistic.

there are somethings that the usd is better for and some things btc is better for. one will not kill off the other any time soon.

500 years from now? sure... gold might be the thing again by then, lol.

Agreed - but let me run this by you, it's been bugging me:


Digital currency - in the form of neutral, non-centralised and trustworthy value transfer systems make sense.

But whether BTC is Myspace and not Facebook, or AltaVista and not Google is a moot point.

Change will come, yes - but Bitcoin is a pioneer and something better could well take advantage of the doors it opens.

A network of P2P value exchange is obviously necessary, but BTC is just showing what is possible, and the coin value is much less relevant than the actual network value (which cannot be bought).

We actually cannot (yet) buy what the value of this idea is, anymore than you can buy shares in the internet.   The real money is in the applications regular people can really use.

They are not there yet, they will be and this will 'make' bitcoin, but to be honest I am beginning to thing the price of a coin is really missing the point of what we are part of and I am seeking ways to invest in applications for this technology, not the coins which flow between the points of its' network.

Philosophical drivel maybe - but I do not here anyone here discussing this kind of 'future' when it seems patently obvious to me that we are not thinking what the applications riding on the network could actually do, and mean for the future.  Not just the 'price' of a coin.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
[sarcasm]This means that we will eventually approach a singularity where the bitcoin price becomes infinite.  The only way for this to happen is for the USD to go to zero as well.[/sarcasm]
There are two possible outcomes for Bitcoin.

Either it fails completely, or else this happens. There is no stable equilibrium between those two extremes.

I do not agree.  Unless that is your timescale is hundreds of years.

Hmmm....

BTC, logically will have no price at all if the dollar falls to zero, the way we currently calibrate its value at least.

And a zero price would mean a near total collapse of the existing system which would be such an upheaval that all bets would be off.   If BTC (and not some other trading medium) remained it would be pure chance as chaos would have to have existed before this happened.

I am with Goat on this - we cannot extrapolate that far, and BTC and the dollar are not simply the only two players in a a winner-takes-all game.

That is (imho) nonsencical.

It is much more complex than that.

EDIT: Why is a (if variable within reason) equilibrium not possible?
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink
One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker... Wink
I was a math/physics prodigy until I started drinking.  Now all I can do is draw squiggly lines on charts and say dx/dt = to-da-moon and 1{n (y) = crash.

yeah, same here... to da m00n ch00ch00

Goodnight people!!!
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink
One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker... Wink
I was a math/physics prodigy until I started drinking.  Now all I can do is draw squiggly lines on charts and say dx/dt = to-da-moon and 1{n (y) = crash.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
Placeholder variable/function.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Ultranode
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink

Everyone should have been drunk at least once in their life.

I'm not drunk often btw (last time was a year ago) but I do like a drink now and then.

My drinking pals call me the absinthe fish.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?
The BTC exchange rate depends on two related but independent factors: it's inherent utility growth due to increased adoption, and the simultaneous degradation in the USD which it is referenced to.

I agree with Peter R.'s "rationalization" of a super exponential function above (I agree, even though I don't really *believe* in it), but I don't agree with what you're saying. if btc adoption growing exponentially towards infinity (f) and usd degradation exponentially decreasing towards 0 (g) are independent of each other, as you stipulate, what you're looking for, price p as f over g, is
f(x)=e^x
g(x)=1/h^x
p(x)=(e^x)/(1/(h^x))=(e^x)*(h^x)=eh^x
It's late and I'm midly drunk , so by all means tell me where you think i went wrong.


what is e and h?

e is Euler's number. Not sure about h.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink

Everyone should have been drunk at least once in their life.

I'm not drunk often btw (last time was a year ago) but I do like a drink now and then.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink
One cannot be great at math and NOT being a drinker... Wink
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!

The math or the drinking?  He is great at math!  But he is not a drinker either. Wink
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked

Never? Wow ..

BitChicksHusband, get on that!
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
Guys, just wanted to let you know it's going up now. I just sold and following the recent trends I always make bad trades
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?
The BTC exchange rate depends on two related but independent factors: it's inherent utility growth due to increased adoption, and the simultaneous degradation in the USD which it is referenced to.

I agree with Peter R.'s "rationalization" of a super exponential function above (I agree, even though I don't really *believe* in it), but I don't agree with what you're saying. if btc adoption growing exponentially towards infinity (f) and usd degradation exponentially decreasing towards 0 (g) are independent of each other, as you stipulate, what you're looking for, price p as f over g, is
f(x)=e^x
g(x)=1/h^x
p(x)=(e^x)/(1/(h^x))=(e^x)*(h^x)=eh^x
It's late and I'm midly drunk , so by all means tell me where you think i went wrong.


Wow.  I have never been drunk and I can't even begin to do the math that some of you can do in a slightly drunken state.  Impressive  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?
The BTC exchange rate depends on two related but independent factors: it's inherent utility growth due to increased adoption, and the simultaneous degradation in the USD which it is referenced to.

I agree with Peter R.'s "rationalization" of a super exponential function above (I agree, even though I don't really *believe* in it), but I don't agree with what you're saying. if btc adoption growing exponentially towards infinity (f) and usd degradation exponentially decreasing towards 0 (g) are independent of each other, as you stipulate, what you're looking for, price p as f over g, is
f(x)=e^x
g(x)=1/h^x
p(x)=(e^x)/(1/(h^x))=(e^x)*(h^x)=eh^x
It's late and I'm midly drunk , so by all means tell me where you think i went wrong.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

U mad?

He is pretty mad, yep.

Jury is out on that one IMHO - I am feeling we are not in bull market yet.   Don't get me wrong, I am 80/20 BTC / fiat right now, so I want a higher price.

But I am not full BTC as I still think China volumes / prices are fake and the market is neither predictable (of course), nor settled.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 500
📱 CARTESI 📱 INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SCA
A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.
I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

I just tried that. With data from 1st of November 2011 to 15th of December 2013 (Mt Gox) the fit factor for a straight line in log space is R^2=0,9066 while for an exponential rise in log space R^2=0.9422. So, you are maybe on to something.

Plot:

legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Dumb broad
Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

no way it wont even get past 760 ( Stamps )

Sorry Adam, what are you saying?  BTC wont go higher than 760 on Stamp???....shurerly shome mishtake

we'll see...

the math geek would have you blieve bitcoin is going to the moon, meanwhile they buy dogecoins.....

Oh God....I thought we had moved onto cat coins long ago Wink

Don't take any notice of what TERA says...he's a contrarian, you should know this from the trollbox.  It's the end of the weekend of a long holiday with flaccid volume flopping the price around.  What happens on Jan 2nd following is what to base your predictions on.

And lets face it 'capitulation' at $500....its like being tortured with a feather.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
[sarcasm]This means that we will eventually approach a singularity where the bitcoin price becomes infinite.  The only way for this to happen is for the USD to go to zero as well.[/sarcasm]
There are two possible outcomes for Bitcoin.

Either it fails completely, or else this happens. There is no stable equilibrium between those two extremes.

Sorry, I used the wrong tags.  Upon reflection, I should have used [uberbull]...[/uberbull].  I agree that this is possible, BTW. 
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
[sarcasm]This means that we will eventually approach a singularity where the bitcoin price becomes infinite.  The only way for this to happen is for the USD to go to zero as well.[/sarcasm]
There are two possible outcomes for Bitcoin.

Either it fails completely, or else this happens. There is no stable equilibrium between those two extremes.
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