It's not a bubble. The "crashes" are the train stopping and refilling 
The fifth growth spurt .
Let's start using growth spurt, it's more accurate then "bubble".
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30688. (Read 26713256 times)
December 27, 2013, 05:39:02 AM
The fifth growth spurt .
Let's start using growth spurt, it's more accurate then "bubble".
December 27, 2013, 05:35:46 AM
Nice 800 miniwall on gox...
There was one also yesterday , but I don't know what happened to it , I went to sleep.
Anybody knows ?
I sold over 9000 BTC.
Just kiddin'
You and Falsoraj
You'll cry when I dump all my BTC!
December 27, 2013, 05:34:38 AM
I'm great at day tarding during crashes and corrections when the heat is on - some days i make multiple 100 percent profits. It's trying to swing tard during these slow periods that I have trouble with.
I need to learn just to hodl all my winnings after the crash and save myselfdays weeks of headaches and slow losses until there is clearly an issue with the price trend. But for some reason there's always some fear factor (like China) that prevents me from doing this.
I need to learn just to hodl all my winnings after the crash and save myself
December 27, 2013, 05:34:27 AM
It's not a bubble. The "crashes" are the train stopping and refilling
In both Mar-Apr and Nov, the time period from busting the previous ATH to making the new was less than a month. The ATH from 2011 was current for 19 months and April was 7 months. So the refillings tend to take much longer than the choochoos.
Well it is better to jump aboard and enjoy the ride, than to have missed the train and the Choo Choo'ssss!
Yes, this is what I also advocate for the 99% (SSS savings plan).
But if you are here trading, then you should trade when the probabilities are on your side, and betting against 5-year trendline based on (what exactly?) is not smart trading imho.
December 27, 2013, 05:31:47 AM
Nice 800 miniwall on gox...
There was one also yesterday , but I don't know what happened to it , I went to sleep.
Anybody knows ?
I sold over 9000 BTC.
Just kiddin'
You and Falsoraj
December 27, 2013, 05:29:25 AM
Nice 800 miniwall on gox...
There was one also yesterday , but I don't know what happened to it , I went to sleep.
Anybody knows ?
I sold over 9000 BTC.
Just kiddin'
December 27, 2013, 05:28:21 AM
Nice 800 miniwall on gox...
There was one also yesterday , but I don't know what happened to it , I went to sleep.
Anybody knows ?
December 27, 2013, 05:22:27 AM
Nice 800 miniwall on gox...
December 27, 2013, 05:21:33 AM
It's not a bubble. The "crashes" are the train stopping and refilling
In both Mar-Apr and Nov, the time period from busting the previous ATH to making the new was less than a month. The ATH from 2011 was current for 19 months and April was 7 months. So the refillings tend to take much longer than the choochoos.
Nevertheless, I believe the both of us are still profiting
December 27, 2013, 05:19:54 AM
It's not a bubble. The "crashes" are the train stopping and refilling
In both Mar-Apr and Nov, the time period from busting the previous ATH to making the new was less than a month. The ATH from 2011 was current for 19 months and April was 7 months. So the refillings tend to take much longer than the choochoos.
December 27, 2013, 05:18:10 AM
Rpietila , Whats your insight for early 2014?
According to the trendline model, we should reach the ATH earliest May, and before that have a consolidation in 500 area, with possibly 1-2 dips below that. The trendline is the sum total of all news, etc. so it will most likely continue to be valid this year as it has all the previous years. SlipperySlope's logistic model has actually a less steep trendline because it is based on MtGox data only whereas I have all of it since 2009.
Due to several risks (most of it related to exchanges) I advocate keeping 50% of your (liquid) net worth in paper wallets. The rest should be mostly in fiat in this kind of condition where we are in a bear market following the bubble top, and the trendline does not allow a further uptrend just yet.
If you recall the April bubble and its aftermath, there was a high consolidation in 130 area which lasted for several weeks before the final capitulation. I don't believe we can stay at 750 and continue going up from here.
Thanks for your insights. Much appreciated.
Do you feel news event's don't effect the underlying trendline?
December 27, 2013, 05:14:09 AM
It's not a bubble. The "crashes" are the train stopping and refilling
December 27, 2013, 05:09:53 AM
Rpietila , Whats your insight for early 2014?
According to the trendline model, we should reach the ATH earliest May, and before that have a consolidation in 500 area, with possibly 1-2 dips below that. The trendline is the sum total of all news, etc. so it will most likely continue to be valid this year as it has all the previous years. SlipperySlope's logistic model has actually a less steep trendline because it is based on MtGox data only whereas I have all of it since 2009.
Due to several risks (most of it related to exchanges) I advocate keeping 50% of your (liquid) net worth in paper wallets. The rest should be mostly in fiat in this kind of condition where we are in a bear market following the bubble top, and the trendline does not allow a further uptrend just yet.
If you recall the April bubble and its aftermath, there was a high consolidation in 130 area which lasted for several weeks before the final capitulation. I don't believe we can stay at 750 and continue going up from here.
December 27, 2013, 04:51:33 AM
and were re visiting 800 zone on gox
December 27, 2013, 04:29:39 AM
If sometimes you spend days "not hodling", you aren't a hodler.
Quit trying to predict the short term fluctuations, it's bad for your wallet.dat.
Quit trying to predict the short term fluctuations, it's bad for your wallet.dat.
+1
trading a too volatile market is suicidal.
You can play markets where the trending vs trading periods can be well recognized, which is clearly not the case in day trading.
On the weekly scale, it's clearly a strong bullish trend :
December 27, 2013, 04:14:54 AM
Right now the market wants to go up. Just deal with it. ATHs are much more likely before <380.
How much more likely?
Rpietila , Whats your insight for early 2014?
Let me take a stab at it. All gloom with a sprinkle of doom, 300ish or maybe 200 or maybe double/single digits
December 27, 2013, 04:09:14 AM
Off to the races...
Bet 1 BTC on Sprinter Sacre , it's safer than trading
)) December 27, 2013, 04:04:21 AM
China is back to their old game...
December 27, 2013, 04:00:21 AM
that bid wall at 700-710 is not going to give this fight easily at stamp
Wall's Flal.. December 27, 2013, 03:59:44 AM
It's been a rough day hodling. I spent all those other days not hodling through half the rises and finally now that I hodl it does this.
If sometimes you spend days "not hodling", you aren't a hodler.
Quit trying to predict the short term fluctuations, it's bad for your wallet.dat.
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