Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30872. (Read 26712368 times)

hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?
I cannot say how much I agree

Nice explanation macsga!  Hey, I just got in line with the physics guy.  Cool.  I like the string theory stuff.

Back to business:

If my idea is correct, I witnessed one of the operators make ~64k USD in about half an hour.  His bots dampened the oscillations downward then made three buys, igniting green candles for the first time in a while.  When the sheep got on board with the upswing, he sold in four batches at very near the top. 

Who knows.  I love a good conspiracy theory.

Thats why i've been saying TA is a self-fullfilled prophecy.... the more ppl use it talk about it the more "real" it become and thus.... manipulator will skin you....

If i want TA trolls, i would be on Elitetrader forums.....a heaven for TA charts and future predictions.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Blitz:The price affects the perception of the news
they have a point nan

when I woke up this morning there were 50 pages unread

just can't keep up
Yeah, sorry for being a grumpy old mare.

OK, well the gist of it isn't great.

I was pretty bullish about getting RMB out of China and after the "fall of the wall" considered getting funds into China…all in the sake of arb.

However, the communication I had with BTChina was fruitless.
I tried via Bank of China in Australia but they wont play and I tried via some of my HK contacts but again BTChina said no, only mainland China bank branches.

So, I guess Loaded is going to hit them over the head with a suitcase of money…see if that changes their position.

EDIT: One other thing to add is that BitPirate rmbtb exchange was amenable (lets say) but I haven't heard anything from him lately...I am really interested in what his take is on recent developments.

Thank you Nan.

So, to follow this a little further:  You need to have a physical account in China.  You would also need a physical account in Japan.  Am I close?
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
haha, I'm getting closer to that, have to review that screenshot and add some to my ignore collection.

I am going to ignore anyone who is posting either bullish or bearish knee jerk thoughts outside of this thread.

I lurk so I've a pretty good idea of the regulars. I'm also a writer so I recognize certain language patterns.

It's not hard, just ask yourself if there's an individual behind the username.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
The answer is arbitrage.

Tell me how you'd do it, please.
Would this work:

  * Buy BTC with USD outside China
  * Sell the BTC in China for RMB
  * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market
  * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD

or the other way around.   Not for amateurs, of course.

This would equalize prices but according to some "exchange rate" that is not the official one, due to extra costs.

Which is what we see, right? They track each other but not at the official exchange rate.


Yes until your btcChina account gets frozen  Huh
Has your account been frozen?
I've been trying to change my phone number and they have gone all silent on me...coins stuck on there...getting a bit fidgety.

My XBT Withdrawal made yesterday was held back and this evening I was blocked from RMB and XBT withdrawals. (My account reflects my balances but withdrawals are frozen for now.)
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
haha, I'm getting closer to that, have to review that screenshot and add some to my ignore collection.

I am going to ignore anyone who is posting either bullish or bearish knee jerk thoughts outside of this thread.

Please ignore me..... i'm a bull pretend to be a bear that post bullish comments as a reversed psychology tactic. !!!!!  Shocked Shocked
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Blitz:The price affects the perception of the news
An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?
I cannot say how much I agree

Nice explanation macsga!  Hey, I just got in line with the physics guy.  Cool.  I like the string theory stuff.

Back to business:

If my idea is correct, I witnessed one of the operators make ~64k USD in about half an hour.  His bots dampened the oscillations downward then made three buys, igniting green candles for the first time in a while.  When the sheep got on board with the upswing, he sold in four batches at very near the top. 

Who knows.  I love a good conspiracy theory.
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
haha, I'm getting closer to that, have to review that screenshot and add some to my ignore collection.

I am going to ignore anyone who is posting either bullish or bearish knee jerk thoughts outside of this thread.
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
I've taken this time to liberally use the ignore button to single out sock puppets and troll fudsters.

Apologies if I inadvertently included you. Seems they're getting desperate.

legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Dumb broad
The answer is arbitrage.

Tell me how you'd do it, please.
Would this work:

  * Buy BTC with USD outside China
  * Sell the BTC in China for RMB
  * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market
  * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD

or the other way around.   Not for amateurs, of course.

This would equalize prices but according to some "exchange rate" that is not the official one, due to extra costs.

Which is what we see, right? They track each other but not at the official exchange rate.


Yes until your btcChina account gets frozen  Huh
Has your account been frozen?
I've been trying to change my phone number and they have gone all silent on me...coins stuck on there...getting a bit fidgety.
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 4775
diamond-handed zealot
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?
I cannot say how much I agree
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Dumb broad
they have a point nan

when I woke up this morning there were 50 pages unread

just can't keep up
Yeah, sorry for being a grumpy old mare.

OK, well the gist of it isn't great.

I was pretty bullish about getting RMB out of China and after the "fall of the wall" considered getting funds into China…all in the sake of arb.

However, the communication I had with BTChina was fruitless.
I tried via Bank of China in Australia but they wont play and I tried via some of my HK contacts but again BTChina said no, only mainland China bank branches.

So, I guess Loaded is going to hit them over the head with a suitcase of money…see if that changes their position.

EDIT: One other thing to add is that BitPirate rmbtb exchange was amenable (lets say) but I haven't heard anything from him lately...I am really interested in what his take is on recent developments.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
any movement = rocket fuel for me Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Blitz:The price affects the perception of the news
An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Blitz:The price affects the perception of the news
So perhaps this oscillating dampening thing is more than just a natural occurrence-- witness the ask wall on gox?

I believe it is defo unnatural.  The bot traffic is the key IME.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
So perhaps this oscillating dampening thing is more than just a natural occurrence-- witness the ask wall on gox?
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Blitz:The price affects the perception of the news
For example, as of yesterday it would seem that pocketing one USD in Japan (that's where Mt Gox is?) is as good as pocketing 5.3 CNY in China, even though the official exchange rate is 6.07 or so.


Okay.  I get it now.  Thanks.
Jump to: