Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31076. (Read 26608087 times)

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore.

I think it'd be so immensely superior to an extrapolated trendline as to be unworthy of discussion.

I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics

I SERIOUSLY don't.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

At $600 the 'trends' were still peaking (as much as I hate to depend on trends), the media was still pumping the bitcoin propaganda and people's interests were being piqued.

Now the trends are down, the media has been saturated (something thats hard for bitcoiners to accept, what people actually would just ignore our bitcoin arcitles???) and we are yesterday's news.

As far as not knowing how much 'pressure' is left. It's pretty obvious, we've been flapping off this ~1k resistance like a wet fish for for a while now, the only pressure that's left is in bull's heads.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

Especially as I reveal a secret to you: just yesterday I hired an excel-wiz to crunch the numbers, and he can even post the charts here! The ominous lack of visualization is just my inability to transmit the graphics

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

Are you willing to quantify this stop-loss approach, so that I could run a few simulations?

Eg. "always sell when price dips 10% from the ATH", "Buy back at ATH"

The bears are the ones who sold their coins and are waiting for it to go down.

The bulls are ones who have the coins and are hoping it to go up.

The funny thing is that neither bulls nor bears are in the position to influence the market to their desired direction (because they already made their own move). The success of either is dependent on how to make the other one fold. The forum (incorrectly) constantly talks about bulls buying and bears selling, which is not the case. An upward action is bear running to cover (unless it's virgin buying) and downward action is bulls panicking.

It is generally better to be bull, because the new money raises price on average 24% per month, which is really a lot.

When price has risen to much higher than the trend, however, it may be advantageous to be a bear. From now I will have 3 months to buy back at trendline at a wash, or up to 100% gain. Any number of negative things can happen meanwhile, short-term reducing the price, and my buyback method catches flashcrashes also.

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore. If I am right, everyone who lost their shirt is bitter at me (I am very good in explaining how right I was ). If I am wrong, people whose general trackrecord is much weaker, are laughing at me. I have not made my 51% APR by listening to other people of course, but I also don't want to argue with them.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.

Hey, I remember this argument... at $600 after the first correction.

We have no idea how much "pressure" is left.

you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

But what do you suggesting then?

I went short when it looked like drop is imminent, I usually play on safe and take moderate profits so I needed 10$ drop or so more, to put my trailing stop orders and finish that trade with profit even if it would reverse. It didn't happen, I went to bed, it rose contrary to all indicators and went away from me so I took a lost. Shit happens

I don't regret my trade at all, the only thing I partially regret is that I used leveraged shorting, that made my loss bigger. But it made my profit yesterday bigger too, bit smaller than loss but that's life